For what it's worth, yesterday tuned out to be a successful day. We ended up placing seven wagers and cashed four of them, including out one 2 unit wager. We finished +1.08 units for the day, That brought our season total uo to + 13.24 units.
NYY 1st 5 RL - NY jumped to an early 1-o lead in the 1st. HTN to a 3-1 lead in he 3rd, but NY got 3 back in the 4th for a 4-3 lead after 5.
NYM 1st 5 RL - The Mets jumped out to a 7-1 lead after 5, before blowing it late in an 11-9 loss. Think they miss Familia?
CHI WS 1st RL - Quintana nursed a slim 1-0 lead through 5.
BALT - 1st 5 RL - The Orioles gave Gausman a 5-0 cushion heading into the bottom of the 4th, but he gave it all back, and KC went on to sweep the Os. Think they miss Britton?
DET 1st 5 RL - This one was unbelievable, Alex Meyer hadn't pitched a decent game all season, and somehow, he shuts down one the better offenses in Baseball, and also outpitches Justin Verlander? In what world does that happen?
NYY 1st 5 RL - This one was over fast and not in a good way. Htn hammer Tanaka for 6 in the 1st. NT was down 9-4 after 5.
WASH 1st 5 RL - This was our one 2 unit play. Wash led 1-0 early but PHIL took a 2 -1 lead in the 4th. In the 5th WAS started the inning with a double. A line out moved the runner to 3rd and a sac fly brought the tying run in. With 2 out WASH got another single, and hHarper dove in Wash's 3rd run with a double, making it 3-2 after 5 and cashing our ticket.
On to today's games
TB @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
Chris Archer
Archer is enjoying a nice bounce back season so far. He's 3-1 with five quality starts, including his last three, in his eight outings, and he just missed another by a single out. Archer has allowed less hits (44 than innings pitched (53.1) and has an impressive 59/16 K/BB ratio as well as allowing just 4 HRs.
After a big break out season in 2015, his ERA jumped d from 3.23 in 2015 to 4.02 last season, and his WHIP went from 1.14 to 1.24. His advanced metrics also went up significantly. His SIERA rose from 3.08 to 3.50 and his xFIP from 3.01 to 3.41. He led the AL in losses with 19, and gave up 30 HRs. Archer got off to a really bad start last season, with a 4.66 ERA and 18 HRs allowed in the 1st half of the season. His 16% HR/FB was a big reason for his poor start. He did settle down with a 3.25 ERA and 1.01 WHIP after the AS break. A small decline in the velocity and command of his 4 seam FB played a big role that awful start, but by midseason, Archer had mostly straightened that out, but by then, the damage was already done. It wasn't all bad. Archer's 3.48 K/BB rate was still near elite, and his 27.4% K rate and 7.8% BB rate were both in line with his 2015 level.
There's no question that Archer has top-tier stuff, it's just a matter of avoiding the long ball, which he has done (4) so far this season, and not becoming too reliant on Ks. His slider is excellent and he uses it over 40% of the time (45.9% this season). He still looks like the same, strikeout machine that he has always been, thanks to a heavy reliance upon that virtually unhittable slider.
CARLOS CARRASCO
Carrasco is off to another fine start this season. He's made seven starts for the Indians and has six quality starts in his last seven outings. He missed another by just 1 out. He has allowed 2 out less runs in six of his six starts, and has allowed less hits (29) than innings pitched (48.1) wiath an excellent 46/8 K.BB ratio.
The numbers confirm that Carrasco has pitched very well over the last 3 seasons. Since he joined the Indians' rotation for good in August of 2014, he's one of only four qualified pitchers (along with Jake Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard) with at least a 25% K rate , a 50% GB rate, and a sub 7.5% BB rate. He has a complete ’s arsenal with three well above-average pitches, his slider, curveball and changeup, and five pitches that he throws at least 10% of the time. His breaking stuff dives and his fastball can sit in the 93-94 mpg range.
After a brilliant 2015, last season was something of a letdown. His WHIP rose a little from 1.07 to 1.15. His ERA actually dropped from 3.63 to 3.32 , but his advanced metrics didn't follow suit. His SIERA rose from 2.74 to 3.44, and his xFIP from 2.66 to 3.32. He produced 2% fewer swinging strikes, and made 2.6% more contact. Hitters also made 8.9% more hard contact and hit 1.7% more fly balls, leading to a spike in HR/9 from 0,88 in 2015 to 2.25 last season. So far this season, Carrasco's SIERA is down to 3.21, his xFIP is down to 3.14, his hard contact rate is down 15.5%, his FB% is down 1.4% and his HR/9 is down to 1.27. His swing strike and contact rates remain virtually unchanged.
Carrasco was brilliant in 2015, and he may never be quite that good again, but he sure looks it sso far this season. He was still very good in 2016, just not quite as good.
The number give Carrasco a small edge, but make no mistake, these are two excellent pitchers, and I dont think either team gets much off these two..
Edge - CLEV slight.
Bullpens
CLEV has an elite bullpen, one of the best in baseball. TB's is about average, not bad but not good either.
Offense
TB possesses an above average offense, while CLEV's is slightly below average.
Defense
Edge - TB
Home /Road Records
TB is 7-12 on the road v 10-9 at home
CLEV is 7-8 at home v 12-9 on the road
Edge - CLEV slight
Conclusion: The Rays have the superior offense, but the Indians have the much better bullpen. That leaves us with the two starting pitchers, and they're both excellent. In the first five innings of games, Archer has allowed 0 runs three times, 1 run 3 times, 2 runs once and 4 once. Carrasco has allowed 0 runs twice, 1 run twice and 2 runs three times. That means than in 10 of their 15 combined starts they've each given up i run or less, and in four, they've given up 2 each. That leaves one 4 run startt by Archer. even with a low 1st 5 total of 4, the under looks like a solid wager to me. As for the side, I don't see iether team getting much off these two starters, and of these two bullpens, I think the CLEV pen is less likely to crack.
PICK - 1st 5 UNDER 4 (-115 for 1 unit) and CLEV ML (CLE -138 for 1 unit)
CHI WS @ LAA
Starting Pitchers
Mike Pelfrey
This season, Pelfrey is 0-3, with nothing even remotely resembling a quality start in any of his four outings. Hell, in three of the four he didn't even gone 5 innings, and he's averaging just over 4.2 innings per start. . He's allowed more hits (20) than innings pitched (19), and his 6 Ks (2.84 per 9) leaves a lot to be desired, as does his 6/7 K/BB ratio. It should also b noted that his 40.6% rate is the lowest of his marginal career.
For His career, Mike Pelfrey is 65-91, with a 1.50 WHIP, and a 4.57 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 5.25 SIERA and a 5.04 xFIP, are even higher. He has a 5.09 K/0 rate and a 3.19 BB/9, which translates to a 1.58 K/BB (4.7%).
Pelfrey's pace is among the 10 slowest in the game. When he finally does throw the ball, Pelfrey will mostly throw either a decent sinker or an improving low-spin splitter toward the plate. It won't result in a strikeout, Pelfrey had the worst strikeout rate in the game (4.24/9, 10.4%)minimum 100 innings. It might end up in a walk, since his walk rate (3.48 BB/9, 8.5%) was below average. Combine those two stats and you get the worst strikeout-minus-walk rate (1.22 K/BB, 1.9%) in the game. His 48.4% career ground ball rate is more okay than elite. There's just not much to like about Pelfrey.
Jesse Chavez
Chavez has started seven games for the Angels, and been effective in five of them, with three quality starts. He missed two more by just 1 out. In those five starts, he allowed 26 hits and 12 runs (11 earned) in 31.2 innings, with 27 Ks and 10 BBs. Chavez's two worst outings were both against TEX, who got to him for 13 hits (including 3 HRs) and 9 runs in 10.1 innings.
Chavez, a career journeyman, spent 2016 in Toronto and Los Angeles, appearing in 63 games exclusively as a reliever. However, over the past three seasons, he has started 47 games and has generally been effective, posting a 1.34 WHIP, and a 3.95 ERA over that 3 year span. His advanced metrics are slightly better than his ERA. This tells me that he can be at least a league-average starter, and maybe a little better, when given the opportunity. Chavez should be a serviceable starter, particularly pitching his home games in a favorable park.
Chavez may only be a league average starter, but that puts him light years ahead of Pelfrey.
Edge - LAA
Bullpens
The White Sox bullpen has been surprisingly good. The Angels pen has also been decent, but not as good as CHI's.
Edge - CHI WS
Offenses
Both of the offenses are challenged. The numbers say that CHI is a little worse.
Edge - LAA slight
Defense
Edge - SD
Home /Road
CHI is 9-10 on the road v 7-8 at home
LAA is 12-8 at home v 7-13 on the road
Edge - LAA
Conclusion: Both of these teams are offensively and defensively challenged, CHI maybe a little more so. The bullpens are both decent, CHI's look a little better, but the bid defference here is the two starting pitchers. Chavez is atleast league average and maybe a little better, and pitching in a favorable home venue. Pelfrey, simply stated is not very good, so I'm fading Pelfrey. However, with the ML being LAA -190, there's no value there so we'll lay the half a run on a 1sr 5 RL
PICK - LAA 1st 5 RL (-135 for 1 unit)
LAD @ SF
Starting Pitchers
Brandon McCarthy
When McCarthy signed with the Dodgers before the 2015 season, he was coming off his first 200 inning season. so there was optimism about his health. Naturally, McCarthy tore his UCL in April 2015 and needed surgery. He made his 2016 debut in July and actually got off to an excellent start. In his first 4 starts, he had posted a 1.61 ERA and fanned 26 hitters in 22.1 innings. He also allowed just 1 HR. Then, the wheels fell off. McCarthy said it was a hip issue that landed him on the DL. He still has the stuff and potential to be productive, but there will always be injury concerns.
This season, McCarthy is 3-0, with three quality start in his 5 outings. McCarthy has allowed 2 runs or less in four of his five starts, and has given up less hits (26) than innings pitched, with an excellent 25/9 K/BB ratio. The Dodgers activated McCarthy from the 10-day disabled list, after being sidelined for a bit with a separated left (non-throwing) shoulder.
Matt Cain
Cain might be headed to the proverbial glue factory soon. For the most part, he's struggled in his seven outings this season, posting just two quality starts. He's allowed more hits (37)than innings pitched (35.2), with 17 walks and a weak 27/17 K/BB ratio.
Once upon a time, Cain was once of the league’s premier workhorses, posting a 3.38 ERA in an average of 209 innings per season from 2006-13, but injuries have decimated the latter portion of his career. After hitting the DL once in his first eight seasons, he has eight trips in his last three. He hasn’t reached even 100 innings in any of the last three seasons. Last season, Cain was 4-8, with a 1.51 WHIP and a 5.64 ERA. His advance metrics a 5.14 FIP, , a 4.81xFIP, and a 4.67 SIERA, weren't much better.
For years, Cain maintained a well-below-average HR/FB rate that allowed him to consistently outperform his ERA metrics. That started changing in 2013 when Cain posted an 10.8% HR/FB and it's been rising since: 13.7%, 14.8%, and 15% last season. It's currently 9.1% Cain's sky high BABIP (.304 in 2015, .321 last seaon, and .297 so far this season)) has only exacerbated the problem. Cain almost certainly won’t ever come close to the 3.28 ERA guy he was from 2005-12, and even a sub-4.00 seems unrealistic at this juncture in his rapidly sinking career.
Edge - LAD
Bullpens
The Dodgers have one of the best bullpens in baseball, and although the SF pen has gotten better, hey're still nowhere near as good.
Edge - LAD
Offenses
Unless they're facing a lefthander, LA has a top tier offense. SF may supplanted KC as the worst offense in the league.
Edge - LAD
Defense
Edge - LAD slight
Home /Road
LA is 9-10 on the road v 13-6 at home
SF is 9-9 at home v 6-15 on the road
Edge - NONE
Conclusion: The Dodgers have the much better bullpen and the much better offense, and as for these two starting pitchers, McCarthy's shown more than Cain has. Every edge goes to LA in this one.
PICK - LAD ML (-134 for 1 unit)