For what it's worth, we got our asses kicked last night.
We put a unit on CLEV, and Trevor Buaer crapped the bed. It was 5-0 after 2, and the Tribe never had a chance. Can't say we're totally surprised given Bauer's underachieving history. Kiss 1 unit goodbye.
We also put a unit on STL 1st 5 . A lot of folks here were on MIL. My congrats to all of you. You obviously knew more than I did. The Basewinners podcast liked MIL too. We disagree and paid the price. Kiss another unit goodbye. We still think Davies sucks, but if so, how bad is STL?
Finally, we had two units on the Astros, one on the 1st 5 and 1 on the full game. We still can't figure out how HTN could only manage 1 lousy run in the 1st 5. Twice,in the 2nd and the 5th, they got the 1st two batter on, with 0 outs and came up empty both times. Kiss a third unit goodbye.
Fortunately, HTN did get 5 in the 7th to get us our only win on the ML.
For the day were finished -2.29 units, but for the season, we're still +11.66 units.
On to today's card.
The first two look mighty square, but that's just how we see them.
TOR @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
Mat Latos
Latos has made two starts for the Jays this season. They must be desperate for starting pitching. His first start was at the LAA, and they got to him for 6 hits and 4 runs in 5 inning, with 1 K and 4 BBs. He got another start at STL, and tossed a quality start, allowing 3 hits and 0 runs over 6 innings with 5 Ks and 4 BBs. Based on what I say last night, this outing may be more indicative of how bad the Cards are, as opposed to how good Latos is. When you look at Latos' numbers, what stads out is the 3.27 ERA combined with advance metrics (SIERA and xFIP) both over 6, the 5/7 K/BB rate, and the unsustainably low BABIP of 0.235 (career 0.281) . Those all tell me that Latos has been very lucky on balls in play being hit right at someone, and lucky that more of his walks didn't end up scoring. Luck usually evens out.
Latos has played for five teams the past two seasons, and the only MLB gig he was able to get last season, was as a September addition to the WASH pen. Latos is a very marginal player.
Masahiro Tanaka:
After a truly ugly first start (8 Hs, 2 HRs, and 7 ERs in 2.2 innings at TB) Tanaka has returned to form over his last four outings, with three quality starts in his last three. In his second start, Tanaka went 5 innings, allowing 6 hits and 3 earned runs , with 5 Ks getting a no-decision in a Yankee loss to the Orioles. Tanaka left the game in line for the win, but it was still a less-than-stellar performance from the Yankees' ace. He needed 92 pitches just to get through the 5 innings and struggled with his command, not only walking 4, but also hitting a pair of batters. Tanaka followed that up with a win and quality start v STL, pitching 6.1 innings while allowing 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks. He did give up a 1st-inning HR, but he was able to settle in after that and hold the Cards scoreless until his final inning. In his next start Tanaka scattered 6 hits and allowed just 1 run over 7 innings with 6 Ks and 2 BBs against the White Sox at Yankee Stadium. His most recent start was his best as he outdueled Bos' Chirs Sale 3-0, with a 97 pitch complete game allowing hust 3 hits with 3 K and o BBs.
I'm just not buying Latos. Tanaka is clearly the better pitcher here.
Edge - NYY big
BULLPENS
The Yankees have on of the best bullpens in baseball. the Blue Jays don't.
Edge - NYY big
Offense
Right now, the Yankees are hitting ton, while the Jays are hardly hitting.
Edge - NYY big
Defense
Edge - NYY
Home / Road
TOR is 5-9 on the road v v 4-8 at home
NT is 10-3 at home v 5-6 on the road
Edge - NYY
Conclusion: The Yankees hold every edge in this game. They have the much better offense, the much better bullpen and the much better starting pitcher.
PICK - NYY 1st 5 RL (-135 for 2 units) and full game RL (+104 for 1 unit)
BALT @ BOS
Starting Pitchers
Alec Asher
Asher has started one game for the Os at TOR, and it was a good one. He threw 6.1 innings allowing just 4 hits and 1 run, with 5 Ks and 1 BB. He also made two 1 inning appearances out of the bullpen.
Asher spent his 1st 2 seasons with PHIL, shuffling between the minors and the parent club. He made 12 starts for the Phillies, before joining the Orioles this season. In his career, as a starter, Asher has produced a 1.30 WHIP and a 5.43 ERA over 63 innings. Hid advanced metrics,, a 4.81 FIP and a 5.24 xFIP are equally weak.
Chris Sale
Sale has pitched great in each of his five games, all quality stats. He's gone at least 7 innings in each, allowing a total of 23 hits and just 6 runs (5 earned) in his 37.2 innings. He's also fanned 52 while walking just 6.
For some reason, the Red Sox just haven't scored for him. In Sale's 5 starts, while he was on the hill, BOS has scored a grand total of 3 runs for him! In three of those games, they scored 0 and in a fourth 1. That's absolutely unbelievable and has to change.
Last season, Sale posted a 17-10 record. His 1.04 WHIP was the 2nd lowest of his career, and his 3.34 ERA wasn't too shabby either. His advanced metrics, a 3.43 SIERA and a 3.58 xFIP were right in line with his ERA. Sale also delivered 23 quality starts in his 32 outings (71.9%).
In terms of who's the better pitcher, it's Sale, and it's not close. Just get the guy some runs!
Edge - BOS
BULLPENS
Both of these teams have excellent bullpens. The numbers give BOS a small edge.
Edge - BOS slight
Offenses
Last season the Red Sox were the best hitting team in baseball, but so far this season, they're far from it.
Edge - BALT
Defense
Edge - BOS
BALT is 8-5 on the road v 8-3 at home
BOS is 9-56 at home v 4-6 on the road
Edge - BOS
Conclusion: The Orioles are hitting better than the Red Sox, but that's about the only edge that they have here. We don't know all that much about Alec Asher, but we do know a great deal about Chris Sale and it's all very good. I don't see BALT getting much off Sale, and BOS has to score some runs form him - don't they?
PICK - BOS 1st 5 RL (-150 for 2 units )
CLEV @ DET
STARTING PITCHERS
Corey Kluber
When Kuber's on, he's as dominating any anyone in the game, and when he's not, he's perfectly cabable of throwing what I like to call a "Kluber Klunker". So far this season, he tossed three quality starts and two "klunkers". In the three quality starts, he allowed 17 hits (21 HRs) and 6 runs, with 23 Ks and 7 BBs. In the two clunkers, 14 hits (3 HRs) and 11 runs, with 14 Ks and 5 BBs.
Everyone knows how good Kluber was last season. He was a Cy Young candidate and carried the CLEV rotation to the 7th game of the WS. He tossed 215 innings and posted an 18-9 record, with a 1.06 WHIP, and a 3.14 ERA. His advanced metrics, a3.50 SERA and x FIP were also very good.
Since the beginning of his Cy Young 2014 season, only David Price, Max Scherzer, and Johnny Cueto have thrown more innings than Kluber (averaging 224 IP per season), and among pitchers with at least 200 IP during that same stretch, he ranks 3rd in K/9 (9.9), 5th in BB/9 (2.05), and 5th in ERA (3.01).
Justin Verlander
Last season, Verlander showed his 2015 second half was no fluke and removed doubt about his health. He tossed 227.2 innings during a Cy Young-winning-worthy season in which he posted a 16-9 record, with a 1.00 WHIP and a 3.04 ERA. . His advanced metrics, a 3.42 SIERA amd a 3.78 xFIP, were also very good.
Verlander's velocity spiked with not only his fastball but also with his slider, which jumped to a career-best 88 mph (4th highest in the league). Both pitches were outstanding , and his curveball also returned to its previous plus level giving him three quality pitches. He got back to throwing his high fastball, and moved away from his changeup (career-low 8.5% usage), his weakest pitch.
This season, Verlander started out fast with two quality starts in his first two outings. His third start was a disaster, as these Indians bombed him for 11 hits (3 HTs) and 9 runs in just 4 innings. His next start , at MINN, was atypical and a little deceptive. Verlander gave up 4 runs on 3 hits and 6 walks 5 innings. The 6 walks were more than he issued in his previous 3 games. He held the Twins scoreless though 5 innings, before things completely unraveled in the 6th, when he walked the first three batters he faced before giving up a 2-run single that chased him from the game. His average fastball velocity remained strong at 94.4 mph, and if not for his uncharacteristic control issues, it could have been aother quality start.
In his last outing, Verlander rebounded in a big way v SEA allowing 5 hits and 1 run (unearned)with 8 Ks and 2 BBs. He credited a mechanical adjustment for his boost in velocity during the game. 55 of his 118 pitches came out at 95 mph or harder. He touched 98.5 mph twice and averaged 95.6 mph on his fastball, which he threw 70 times. Verlander is also ignoring his changeup. He has thrown only 17 changeups in 525 total pitches this year and avoided the pitch altogether in this game.
Both Pitchers are legitimate aces.
Edge - NONE
BULLPENS
CLEV has one of the best bullpens in baseball, while DET with their 5 Ls and 5 BS has one of the worst.
Edge - CLEV
OFFENSE
Both of these teams have top tier offense and are very evenly matched
Edge - NONE
DEFENSE
Two weak defenses
Edge - DET vert slight
HOME/ROAD RECORD
CLEV is 8-5 on the road v 6-6 at home
DET is 8-6 at home v 5-6 on the road
EDGE - NONE
Conclusion: The big edge here is still in the bullpen. CLEV has one of the best, and DET has one of the worst. Both offenses are potent, but both starting pitchers are legitimate aces. Runs should be at a premium early here, and this game should be decided late. If that's the case, the team with the better bullpen should win, and that's CLEV.
PICK - 1st 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-130 for 1 unit) and CLEV ML (-1119 for 1 unit)
NYM @ ATL
STARTING PITCHERS
Matt Harvey
Harvey has made five starts for the Mets. In the first found he threw three quality starts and missed a fourth by just 1 out. In those 25.1 innings, Harvey allowed 19 hits and 9 runs (8 earned) with 17 Ks and 5 BBs. His last start was radically different but for a very good reason. The Mets had to start Harvey instead of scheduled starter Noah Syndergaard, because of a "bicep issue". Harvey didn't know that he was starting until after he woke up on Thursday morning, when he got a call from the team. He was understandably not ready and off-kilter on the mound, considering he’d done a heavy workout the day before as part of his normal routine, under the assumption that he was supposed to pitch on Friday. It’s customary that the day’s starter get a good night’s rest and eat well the night before, especially for an afternoon game.
There were lots of question marks about Harvey coming into the season, following his disappointing 2016 season, and his offseason surgery. Harvey did serve up 2 HRs, but they were overshadowed by his command (55 of his 77 offerings were strikes - 71.4%) and his high velocity (peaking at 95 mph).
Last season, Harvey only managed a 4-10 record, with a 1.47 WHIP and 4.86 ERA. However, his advanced metrics, a 3.47 FIP, a 4.11 xFIP and a 3.50 SIERA, were nowhere near as bad as his ERA. That tells me that while he wasn't anywhere near his 2015 performance , he wasn't all that bad either. He maintained a healthy 2.43 BB/9, but his fastball velocity dropped 1.5 mph, and hisK rate fell to 7.38 K/9. hitters teed off to the tune of a .353 BABIP. That could be part bad luck, but it also involved making too many hittable pitches. His fastball, change, and slider all allowed an above-average BABIP while his curve remained effective.
This is just Harvey's 5th season, and it's not unusual for very good pitchers to have one bad season in an otherwise stellar career., particularly if injured. At just 25, the early signs ;ook very positive for Harvey.
R.A. Dickey
It's hard to believe that Dickey actually won the NL Cy Young five years ago (with the Mets)! Last season with TOR, Dickey produced a 10-15 record with a 1.37 WHIP and a 4.46 ERA in 169.2 innings. His advanced metrics, a 4.81 SIERA and a 4.76 xFIP were equally bad.
Now with ATL, the 42 year old knuckleballer has started four games and has two quality starts. In those four starts, Dickey has allowed 24 hits (including 4 HRs) and walked another 9. That's 33in baserunners in 23.2 innings, which explains his 1.39 WHIP. Frankly, Dickey has been exceedingly lucky that only 14 runs have been scored on him. Dickey is still a durable innings eater, who goes out every five days, and gives you 5-6 innings. His talents have definitely declined, but he can still throw the knuckler, and when that knuckler's dancing anything (good or bad) can happen.
Throw out Harvey's last start and this matchup's not close.
Edge - NYM
BULLPENS
So far this season, there's not much that separates these two bullpens.
Edge - NONE
OFFENSE
The are very injured right now, and their best hitter, Yoenis Cespedes was recently placed on the DL with a left hamstring strain.
Edge - ATL
DEFENSE
Edge - ATL
HOME/ROAD RECORD
NY is 7-4 on the road v 4-10 at home
ATL is 4-4 at home v 6-10 on the road
Edge - NYM small
Conclusion: The Mets are really beat up, which gives ATL a clear edge on offense, but the Mets have a significant edge at starting pitcher. Throw out his last start and Hervey's been very good, while Dickey's been more lucky than good, and luck tends to even out. The Basewinners podcast liked NYM here as well. I'd like it a lot more if the Mets weren't so damned injured. Still...
PICK - NYM 1st 5 ML (-108 for 1 unit) and full game RL (-106 for 1 unit)
LAA @ SEA
Starting Pitchers
Matt Shoemaker
I kind of thought that we just might get a breakout from Shoemaker this season. In May of last year, Shoemaker decided to start throwing his split finger as often as his fastball. From the day he made that decision until the end of the season, he posted a 2.93 ERA that was backed by solid metrics and peripherals. He struck out nearly a batter per inning, walked only a bit more than 1 per 9 innings, and had reasonable BABIP. Can Shoemaker throw 2 fastballs and a splitter 95% of the time and stay healthy and successful?
So far the answer is a disappointing NO. He's started five games and has produced just one quality starts. He has allowed 24 hits, including 6 HRS, and 15 runs (14 earned) , with 25 Ks and 11 BBs in 26.2 innings. For the most part, Shoemaker hasn't been awful, in that he allowed only 2 ERs in four of his starts, but with the exception of his lone quality start, he has failed to go more than 5.1 IP in any other start.
James Paxton
Paxton is off to a terrific start this season. H he has started five games and thrown four quality On the season, he's also starts. Even more impressive is that in those 4 starts (28 innings) he didn't allowed a single run! On the season Paxton has fanned 39 while walking 6 over 32.1 innings! Paxton did have one subpar start the underwhelming As in Oakland. Hethrew 91 pitches and did notch 14 swings-and-misses, but ran into trouble in both the 3r and 5th innings. He powered his way through the 3rd, limiting the damage to 2 runs by fanning 3 As. . However, he ran out of luck in the 5th, getting only 1 out and giving up 2 more runs on3 hits, a walk and a wild pitch before getting pulled. He ended up allowing 9 hits and 5 runs in 4.1 innings, but still fanned 8 and allowed just 1 walk and the HBP.
Last season, the oft-injured Paxton had his best major league showing, but still needed a stint on the DL with a bruised elbow. During his 121 innings, he posted a 3.79 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Those numbers may not be eye popping, they are certainly adequate. Paxton set career-bests in Ks, BBs, swinging strike, and first pitch strike rates. His velocity also surged to 96.8 mph from the left side, nearly 3 mph of improvement and good for 3rd best in baseball (min. 121 IP).
It's very rare that a mechanical change increases both velocity and command, but that's exactly what happened for Paxton. He closed the season with a 3.19 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his final 67.2 IP, and that hot finish paired with his newfound velocity has pumped a lot of expectations, and so far, Paxton has delivered .
Edge - SEA
BULLPENS
Edge - LAA
OFFENSE
Edge - SEA
DEFFENSE
Edge - SEA close
Conclusion: The Angels have just one edge in this game and that's in the bullpen. The Mariner have the better offense by a wide margin. the slightly better defense and the better starting pitcher.
PICK - SEA SEA 1st 5 ML (-133 for 1 unit)