For what it's worth, yesterday turned out to be a disappointing day. Not that it was a bad day, it wasn't. However, it could have been a great day. We still finished +1.01 units for the day, and +12.37 units for the season.
We liked five games, and we liked two a lot.
We liked the Yankees 1st 5 RL for 1 unit. It was 5-0 after two and 7-0 after 5five. Jimenez looked just like expected - really bad.
We liked WASH 1st 5, and they led 1-0 after four. They squander several chanced for more. The Mets came back with 3 in the fifth, and it ended 3-2 NY after five.
We really liked CLEV. It was a strange game. CLEV gave up 3 in the first and trailed 3-0, but scored of off Gallardo in the bottom of the innings. That was the Gallardo we know and love to bet against. The strange part is that neither team scored anything for the rest of the game. Hell SEA never even got another hit. We cashed the 1st 5 and ML, but lost the RL.
We liked TEX 1st 5, but it looked like we were in big trouble as LA led 2-0 after four, but TEX scored 4 with 2 outs in the 5th.
Finally, we loved ARIZ 1st 5 and full game ML for 2 units each. It was 6-1 after 5 and Greinke was cruising. It was 6-4 ARIZ heading into the 9th. Then the bullpen imploded, as ancient Fenando Rodney blew his 2nd save and lost his 2nd game 7-6 COL.
On to today's card
SEA @ CLEV
STARTING PITCHERS
Chase De Jong
I don't know much about De Jong. Here's what a recent FanGraphs scouting report on SEAS's minor league prospect had to say about him:
"Acquired this spring from the Dodgers, DeJong is a high-volume strike-thrower with a deep repertoire of modest stuff led by a big loopy curveball and relatively new cutter. He sits 88-90 with the fastball and all of his secondary pitches are fringey (whatever that means), so there’s some doubt about how his stuff will play multiple times through the order, but DeJong throws enough strikes to profile as a competent sixth starter or swing man."
So far this season, he's made two appearances out of the bullpen. In the first, he got shelled at HTN allowing 2 hits( 1 HR) and 3 runs with 1 walk. In the second, at OAK, he tossed 4 solid innings allowing just 1 hit and 0 runs with 2 BBs and 2 Ks. It's not much to go on, but the 2/3 K/BB rate isn't good.
Josh Tomlin
I've never really bought in to Tomlin as a frontline starter, and so far this season, he hasn't been one. He's made four starts for CLEV with mixed results . His first two starts were awful. In the first one, at ARIZ, he got lit up for 7 hits and 6 runs in 4.2 innings. He did strike out 6 and walk just 1. His next start, at home v the Wire Sox, was even worse. He got torched for 8 hits (2 HRs) and 7 runs in just 1.2 innings. He turned it around, and threw a quality starts in his last two outings at MINN and v HTN. Against MINN, He allowed 7 hits but only 3 runs in 6 innings, with 2 Ks and 0 BBs. Against HTN, he gave up 8 hits, but only 3 runs in 6 innings with 6 Ks and 0 BBs. Those four outings illustrate my big problem with Tomlin. He has excellent control, 2 BBs in 18.1 innings), but he doesn't strike out many (14), and he's eminently hittable (30).
Last season, Tomlin finished 13 -9 with a 1.19 WHIP, and a 4.40 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 4.24 SIERA and 4.12 xFIP, we also quite mediocre. Tomlin did continue his stinginess last season, walking just 2.8% of batters, the lowest among all qualified pitchers. His career 3.8% mark is also excellent. However, his 16.3% strikeout rate ranked 68th out of 73 pitchers and dropped by over 5% from his 2014-15 levels. Finally Tomlin continued to allow more than 1 hit per IP. The only good news is that Tomlin improved in terms of his ground ball rate, which reached a career high 44% in 2016, and sits at 52.2% so far this season.
Tomlin's not great. but he is consistent. I know exactly what I'm getting, very few walks, very few Ks, lots of contact, with lots of GBs. As for De Jong, he;' not a top prospect , and his coting report has he's nothing special.
Edge - CLEV
BULLPENS
The Indians have one of the best bullpens in the game, while the Mariners have one of the wotst
Edge - CLEV Big!
OFFENSE
Both of these teams are very strong offensively
Edge - NONE
DEFENSE
Neither of these teams is good defensively, but SEA is the better of the two
Edge - SEA
HOME/ROAD RECORD
SEA is 5-11 on the road v 6-3 at home
CLE is 5-6 at home v 8-4 on the road
EDGE - NONE
Conclusion: CLEV is a moderate favorite( -147) and deservedly so. They have the much better bullpen and a consistent, proven starting pitcher. I thinks the Tribe is the better team, even though they haven't really shown it in this series. So I bet 1 unit this morning
PICK - CLEV ML (-1647 for 1 unit)
NYM @ WASH
STARTING PITCHERS
Noah Syndergaard
Syndergaard missed his scheduled start on Thursday because of a bicep issue. He refused an MRI Friday after his throwing session and said he was feeling great and "ready to go on Sunday". However, it's less than reassuring that Syndergaard and the Mets didn't get confirmation from an MRI that his biceps are in shape to make the start. Hopefully his instincts are proven correct and he doesn't aggravate the injury. "Thor" is off to an excellent start this season. He has started four games and they've all been quality starts. He's allowed 23 hits and just 5 earned run in 26 innings, with 30 Ks and 0 BBs!
Syndergaard is the Mets’ ace, and could very well emerge as the best right-handed pitcher in the game this season, if he can stay healthy. As outstanding as he pitched in his rookie season of 2015, last season, his first 30-start season, was even better, and he did so while pitching nearly 60% of the Mets' schedule with a bone spur in his pitching elbow. Ho actually posted a 3.19 ERA and 27.2% K rate in his 17 starts after revealing the ailment. For the season, he fanned almost 30% of the hitters that he faced posting t a 10.7 K/9 rate. He has some of the nastiest pitches in the game including an MLB best 97.9 average mph on his fastball with the capacity to reach 100 mph. He has a four-pitch arsenal that also includes a plus curveball, slider, changeup. Syndergaard's secondary pitches are so good that he would still be very good even if his velocity declines in the future. He also has exceptional command, walking 5.5% of the hitter he's faced, just 2 BB/9. Syndergaard arrived at spring training bigger and stronger and hoping to throw even harder. Is that even possible? This season his fastball has been clocked at 98.6 mph, up from 97.9 last season.
Joe Ross
Ross has made two starts for WASH. The first one was a quality start at ATL. He gave up 6 hits and 3 runs in 7 innings. He allowed 2 in the 1st inning but was staked to a 6-2 lead after 2 and cruised the rest of the way. In his 2nd start in COL, Ross gave up 5 runs on 7 hits and two walks over 4.2 innings while striking out two in WASH's 15-12 win over the Rockies. Again, The Nats jumped out to a 7-0 lead by the top of the s2nd inning, but this time Ross got scored on in each of the next 4 innings to get chased from the game.
Ross offers something most 23-year-old pitchers do not possess, reliability. His numbers looked very consistent in each of the past two years in the majors. Ross struggles against lefties due to a weak changeup and only two other offerings -- a fastball and a slider. If he makes strides with his changeup then he could make the next step, but right now he's a middle of the rotation arm that has some upside potential. It is unlikely that he ever becomes an ace
The big 1uestion here is how healthy is Syndergaard. He says that he's fine, and refused an MRI, so we have no way of knowing. Ross hasn't really looked good so far this season.
Edge - NYM - if "Thor's healthy
BULLPENS
So far this season, these are two really shaky bullpens.
Edge - NYM slight
OFFENSE
The WASH offense is probably a little overrated, coming off a series in CIL in which they scored 42 runs in three games. The Mets are also probaly overated , with 6 players already on the DL, and yesterday Yoenis Cespedes left the game after further injuring a balky hamstring,
Edge - WASh big!
DEFENSE
Edge - NYM small
HOME/ROAD RECORD
NYM are 6-3 on the road v 4-10 at home
WASH is 6-5 at home v 10-3 on the road
Edge - NYM It's early but both teams are thiving on the road so far.
Conclusion: Neither team has a bullpen worthy of wagering on, but WASH has a very good offense, and right now NY doesn't. However, When we get to the starting pitchers, it's a different story. Syndergaard's been dominant , while Ross has struggled. Only one question. Is Syndergaard OK. I've been looking but can't find out any more. If he is this line is cheap, and if he isn't NY should not be favored. I took "Thor at his word for 1 unit 1st 5 this morning.
PICK - NYM 1st 5 ML (-125 for 1 unit)
OAK @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
2017
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Hahn
|
0.85
|
1.80
|
4.24
|
3.91
|
7.65
|
3.60
|
0.45
|
0.130
|
0.157
|
83.3%
|
Keuchel
|
0.84
|
1.22
|
3.41
|
3.34
|
6.57
|
2.19
|
0.97
|
0.173
|
0.188
|
100.0%
|
Jesse Hahn
After an impressive 6 inning outing out of the bullpen, Hahn has started three games of the As, and produced three quality starts. In those three start Hahn has allowed 9 hits and 3 run in 2o innings, with 17 Ks and 8 BBs. All in all an impressive start. but 8 walks are somewhat worrisome.
Jesse Hahn had a weird 2016. He finished 2-4, witha 1.64 WHIP and a 6.02 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 5.27 SIERA and a 4.97 xFIP, weren't much better. After two seasons where he combined serious upside with frustrating injuries, Hahn came into 2016 perfectly healthy, and even with a newly sped-up fastball (93.9 mph in 2016 vs. 92 in 2015. Unfortunately, pretty much everything else went wrong. Hahn only pitched 9e games in the majors, during which he couldn't get bats to miss (6.0% swinging strike rate); outside of the zone, in particular, his swing rate dropped to 26.1% and his contact rate rose to 80.8%. His K and BB rates both ended up around 10%, contributing to a 5.63 FIP and a 5.37 SIERA. Hahn bounced between the majors and AAA for most of the season, including a DL stint that kept him out for most of August.
At his best, Hahn combines strong groundball tendencies with a decent number of strikeouts, but it remains to be seen if he can regain his previous form, and stay healthy
Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel's last 3 seasons look like a roller coaster Hel had a breakout season in 2015, when he won the AL Cy Young award. He followed that with a really disappointing 2016 season, and now this season, he's been lights out. I didn't understand why Keuchel has had such drastic swings. Usually, when I see swings like that, I hink injuries, but that wasn't the case with Keuchel, so I spent about an hour doing a deep dive this morning.
We'll start with right now. How good has Keuchel been? Answr, he's been superb so far this season. He's started five games, and has thrown five quality starts. He's gone 7 full innings in all of them, and has yet to allow more than 2 runs in any of them, and 1 or less in four of them. His 27/9 K/BB ratio is equally outstanding.
Now flash back to 2015. Keuchel posted a 20-9 record with a 1.02 WHIP and a 2.48 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 2.84 SIERA and a 2.75 xFIP were equally outstanding, as was his 4.24 K/BB ratio. Only Francisco Liriano threw fewer balls in the zone than Keuchel's 37.6%. That's an important part of Keuchel's story.
Last season, hitters adjusted, swinging and reaching less at Keuchel's out of zone pitches. As a result, Keuckel had to throw more pitches in the strike zone (41.6%), and that led to less K's (7.71 K/9 v 8,38), more BBs (2.57 v 1.98), 4.1% less soft contact (21.1%% v 25.2%), 88.5% more hard contact ((29.8% v 21.3%), and a 42 point increase in BAA ((.258 v .216). Not surprisingly, Keuchel's numbers declined ( a 1.29 WHIP, a 4.55 ERA, a 3.77 SIERA and 3.53 xFIP) . The discrepancy between Kwuchel's ERA and metrics tell me that he also was the victim of some bad luck on BABIP.
Will Keuchel continue to absolutely dominate hitters? On the plus side, he has excellent command, excellent movement on his sinker, and he's using his cutter more (11.9%). He's throwing less pitches in the zone again (35.3%) and getting more swing strikes 32.8%) on them. Both of those numbers are comparable to his 2015 numbers (37.6/5 out of zone pitches and 3.3% swing strikes out of zone). He's also generating 10% more soft contact (31.1% v 21.1%) and 10.9% less hard contact (18.9% v 29.8%). Gain, bothe of those are cmparable to his 2017 numbers (25.2% soft contact and 21.3% hard contact).
On the minus side his 7.07 K/9 is the lowest of his career, and his 89 mph fastball velocity is well below average even for a lefty.
It's tough to live outside the zone and convince hitters to keep swinging. I would expect some regression from Keuchel as hitters adjust.
BULLPENS
Edge - HTN
Offenses
Edge - HTN
Defense
Edge - NONE
Home/Road
OAKBALT is 4-7 on the road v 7-6 at home
'HTN is 8-5 at home v 7-4 on the road
Edge - HTN
Conclusion: HTN has the much better bullpen and the better offense. As for the starting pitchers, Hahn's been goo, but Keuchel has been even better. I'm still not sure that I completely trust Keuchel to continue pitching this well, , but I an sure I don't trust Hahn too.
PICK - HTN RL 1st 5 innings (-130 for 1 unit)
MINN @ KC
Starting Pitchers
Phil Hughes
Hughes has started 4 games and produced 2 quality startsHe's allowed 24 hits and 13 run (11 earned in 21 innings.. with 13 Ks and 4 BBs. He hasn't allowed more than 4 runs =in any of his start,
Hughes' 2016 season was already going poorly before a line drive off his left knee ended his season. That injury was only supposed to cost him 6-to-8 weeks, but lss than one month later, Hughes underwent successful surgery to remove a rib to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome.
Hughes is coming off an abbreviated season in which he posted a 1-7 record, with a 1.51 WHIP and g a 5.95 ERA in 12 appearances (11 starts). Hughes was pitching so poorly that he was moved to the bullpen in June
It's fair to wonder if the issues addressed by the surgery were at least partially responsible for his subpar 2015-2016 seasons, particularly considering how well he pitched in his first season in MINN
Jason Hammel
Hamme4 hasn't pitched badly for the Royal this season, he just hasn't pitched well either. He's started 3 games and produced 1 quality start. He's allowed 23 hits and 11 runs in 18.2 innings with 14 Ks and 10 BBs. With last year's Cubs, that might have been good enough, but not with this season's Royals.
Last season, there were some troubling signs from Hammel. His fastball usage continued to decline, instead he relied more on his curveball. The result was a decreased K/9 from 9.07 to 7.79, his lowest total since 2013. His 2.86 BB/9 was up form 2.11, and was also his highest rate since 2013. For the third straight season his WHIP rose from 1.12 to 1.21. His HR/9 continue to increase, from 1.21 to 1.35, as did his HR/FB ratio from 12.8 to 13.8 2016, along with a 13.8% home run-to-fly ball ratio. Obviously, opposing hitters are generating a lot of contact in the air, but they're also making solid contact. His 32.5% hard-contact rate was the ninth highest among National League starters. His 3.83 ERA increased for a third consecutive. With the way things have transpired for Hammel over the last two or three seasons, it's difficult to see him as a frontline starter anymore.
BULLPENS
Edge - MINN
OFFENSE
Edge - MINN
PICK - MINN ML (+116 for 1 unit)