For what it's worth, yesterday was an up and down day. Fortunately, it ended on an up note, because we cashed our 2 unit wagers on Max Scherzer and the Nats (1st 5 ML and full game ML). That left us +1.66 units for the day, and +9.33 units for the season.
I know that it looks like we were chasing, but, unless they're facing another elite pitcher, getting the Nats with Scherzer on the hill and a healthy Harper at a decent price (-162 1st 5 ML, and -150 full game ML) is pretty much an auto play for me. I may lose once in a while, but I'll cash a hell of a lot more tickets than I'll trash.
We started the day by pushing our luck betting on the Cubs again. Bad decision. When I read back my post on John Lackey, I realized that I really didn't like him very much, and with good reason. I was betting (hoping) that Cubs bats would get to arroyo more than the Red would get to Lackey. The exact opposite happen and we were down 1.5 units. I should have passed on the game.
We next pit a half a unit on PITT 1st with Ivan Nova on the hill. The Yanks were the much better hitting team and have the much better bullpen, and I don't like betting heavily against that combo. Also, we didn't know much about Jordan Montgomery, so we only risked half a unit. Nova was great again. but Montgomery was almost as good. It was 2-0 PITT after 5 - a winner!
We had a unit on DET 1st 5 with Fulmer on the hill against MINN with Gibson. After MINN took a quick 1-0 lead in the 1st, the Tigers jumped on Gibson for 2 in the 2nd and 5 more in the 3rd. Easy win.
We put 2 units on the TEX ML against the woeful Royals. KC got 2 in the 3rd to take a brief 2-0 lead, but they never scored again. Darvish settled down and went 8 with 8 Ks and TEX cashed 5-2.
To close out the afternoon, we put 2 more units on the A's. Triggs had been pitching well for OAK and Gallardo absolutely sucks. He's close to an auto fade for me. So what happened? Sea put 6 up on Triggs in the first 3 innings and Gallardo had a rare excellent outing. I'd make the same bet again, but not for 2 units, maybe 1. I hate Gallardo, but Triggs just isn't good enough for a 2 unit wager, and I should've known that. Shame on me!
On to tonight's games.
TB @ BALT
STARTING PITCHERS
Chris Archer
Archer is enjoying a nice bounce back season so far. He's made four starts for the Rays, has 2 quality starts and just missed a 3rd by a single out. His 28/7 K/BB ratio is equally impressive. Right now, the only real concern with Archers is his apparent inability to go deep in games. In his last start, he needed 104 pitches (67 strikes) to get through 5 innings, and in the previous one, he needed 102 pitches (62 strikes) to get through 5.2. Both the Tigers and the Red Sox routinely pushed Archer deep into the count.
Archer remains somewhat of a question mark. After a big break out season in 2015, his ERA jumped d from 3.23 in 2015 to 4.02 last season, and his WHIP went from 1.14 to 1.24. His advanced metrics also went up significantly. His SIERA rose from 3.08 to 3.50 and his xFIP from 3.01 to 3.41. He led the AL in losses with 19, and gave up 30 HRs. Archer got off to a really bad start last season, with a 4.66 ERA and 18 HRs allowed in the 1st half of the season. His 16% HR/FB was a big reason for his poor start. He did settle down with a 3.25 ERA and 1.01 WHIP after the AS break. A small decline in the velocity and command of his 4 seam FB played a big role that awful start, but by midseason, Archer had mostly straightened that out, but by then, the damage was already done. It wasn't all bad. Archer's 3.48 K/BB rate was still near elite, and his 27.4% K rate and 7.8% BB rate were both in line with his 2015 level.
There's no question that Archer has top-tier stuff, it's just a matter of avoiding the long ball, which he has done (0 so far) and not becoming too reliant on Ks. His slider is excellent and he uses it over 40% of the time (47% this season). He still looks like the same, strikeout machine that he has always been, thanks to a heavy reliance upon that virtually unhittable slider.
Ubaldo Jimenez
I don't think much of Ubaldo Jimenez. I never have. This season he 1-0 with 1 quality start in his 3 outings. In his last start, he did toss 7.2 shutout innings iat the reds n Cincinnati, giving up 2 hits and 4 walks while striking out 3 in a 2-0 win. However, in the two starts before that Jimenez only went 4.1 innings in each and allowed 15 hits (3 HRs) and 10 runs with 3 BBs and 6 Ks. That might explain his 1.47 WHIP and 5.51 ERA. His advanced metrics are a little better, but not much high 4s).
Last season Jimenez finished an equally abysmal 8-12, with a 1.56 WHIP, a 5.44 ERA, a 4.75 SIERA and a 4.64 xFIP. There just not much to like about Ubamdo Jimennez.
BULLPENS
Last season the Oriole bullpen was a big reason why they got into the playoffs, and they've been good again this season.
Edge - BALT
OFFENSES
Both team are hitting the ball well and rank in the top half of the league, but the Rays are hitting exceptionally well this season.
Edge - TB
DEFENSE
Edge -TB
HOME/ROAD RECORD
TB is just 1-6 on the road v 9-4 at home.
BALT is 6-2 at home v 6-3 on the road.
It's a very small sample size but still...
Edge - BALT
Conclusion: The only edges BALT has are (1) the better bullpen and (2) the Home/road edge. TB has the somewhat better offense, but most importantly the far superior starting pitcher. We'll bet the 1st 5 ML because (1) it takes the bullpens mostly out of the equation, and (2) it removes Archer's biggest problem this season - going deep into the games
PICK - TB 1st 5 ML (-125 for 1 unit)
SD @ ARIZ
STARTING PITCHERS
Jholys Chacin
Chacin has started four games this season, two the pitcher friendly confines of Petco Park and two on the road at LAD and ATL. The results couldn't be more disparate. At home, Chacin has outdueled Madison Bumgarner, 2-1 with 6.2 inning of shutout ball, and, in his last start, Zack Greinke, 1-0 with 8 innings of shutout ball. At home, Chacin is 2-0 with a 0.55 WHIP and a 0.00 ?ERA in 14.2 innings with 10 Ks and 2 BBs. On the road, it's a totally different story. The Dodger torched Chacin for 8 hits (2 HRs), 2 walks and 9 earned runs in just 3.1 innings. The Braves lit him up for 8 hits and 4 runs (3 earned) in 5 innings with 3 Ks and 4 BBs, Thats translates to an 0-2 record with a 2.64 WHIP and a 12.96 ERA on the road.
Chacin pitched for two teams last season, totaling 144 innings (115 as a starter) with less than stellar results. He posted a 6-8 record with a 1.44 WHIP, and a 4.81 ERA. His advanced metric, s a 4.28 SIERA and a 4.12 xFIP were pretty mediocre as well. Those 144 innings were only the 3rd time in his career that he actually threw that many. If you're looking for a bright side, Chacin threw all of his pitches harder last season, than in any season since 2012 when he pitched for the Rockies, and he's still only 30. Another plus is that he’s now pitching his home games at pitcher friendly Petco, and so far that has made a huge difference. There might also be hope in the fact that outside of a horrific June, Chacin actually pitched slightly better last season than his results indicated, especially in the 2nd half where his swinging strike rate increased by 40% over his first half, which explains why his WHIP dropped from a terrible 1.55 in the first half, to a more respectable 1.30 in the second.
Zack Greinke
Coming of an uncharacteristically poor debut season with Arizona, Zack Greinke has rebounded with three solid starts in 4 four outings this season. In each those three starts, Greinke adid not allow more that 2 runs, and in two of them it was 1 run. His one bad start was against the Dodgers, who got to him for 5 runs on 10 hits and 3 walks over 5 innings. Since leaving the Dodgers to join the Diamondbacks, Greinke has been obliterated in hisf 4 starts against his former team, serving up a combined 16 earned runs in 22.2 innings.
Greinke had a disastrous debut in Arizona last season, after signing a monster (6-year, $206.5 million) deal. He started poorly (5.50 ERA in April) and never really got back to being vintage Greinke He posted a 4.37 ERA and 7.6 K/9 rate. Even worse, it just seemed like every time he got on any kind of a roll, it was followed by a start from hell. Greinke had 4 such starts of 7+ earned runs after not having a single one in the previous 2 years. In those 4 starts Greinke allowed 31 earned runs in 17 innings! He didn’t allow more than 4 ER in any of his other 22 starts, posting a 2.92 ERA in those, but those 4 miserable starts pretty much sealed Greinke's fate.
Greinke’s biggest issue was the long ball. He had a HR issue early in his career (1.3 HR/9 from 2004-06), but just a 0.7 HR/9 rate from 2007-15. Last season, his HR problem resurfaced again, rising to 1.3. Making matters even worse, 13 of the 23 HRs that he allowed came in those 4 starts from hell. So far this season he's only given up 2 HRs in his 24.2 innings. Last season, those 4 horrific starts, 2 before his injury, and 2 after it, destroyed Greinke's season. His history of good command numbers tell me that he has a good chance of rebounding, particularly as long as his HR rate stays around where it is right now
is a rematch of their 1-0 game last week, but there's one bid difference. This one's not being played at Petco.
Edge - ARIZ
BULLPENS
The Diamondbacks were the team projected to have a bad bullpen, but so far it's been the Padres who have the bad pen.
Edge - ARIZ
OFFENSE
Playing home games at Chase as opposed to Petco could account for some of the discrepancy, but the Padres are stil offensively challenbed, while the Diamonbacks are offensively very good.
Edge - ARIZ
DEFENSE
Edge - SD
HOME/ROAD RECORD
SD is just 3-8 on the road v 5-4 at home
ARIZ is 8-2 at home v 4-6 on the road
It's a very small sample size but still...
Edge - ARIZ
Conclusion: ARIZ has pretty much every edge in this game, the better bullpen, the much better offense and the better starting pitcher, particularly when you factor in where this game is being played.
PICK - ARIZ ML (-140 for 2 units)