Yesterday was a total disaster for me. Sometimes past results are not indicative of future performance. Last night, I bet big on the Mets because of Noah Sidergaard's dominant numbers against the Phillies, plus the Mets were at home. How do you cap 3 Mets errors? Take out the 2 unearned runs it created and we have a whole different game. Or betting that Danny Duffy would pitch like an ace and the Rangers would be distracted after a long road trip? Well, Duffy did pitch like an ace - no runs in 7.1 innings. What more could you ask from him? But the Royals managing 4 hits in 13 innings against a mediocre starter and the game's worst bullpen? Unbelievable!
Back with a large card tonight, seems like there is much to like here (which means you may want to fade me!):
NYY ML & RL - I'm betting small here. Line looks fishy, but the numbers all say Yankees.
Rays ML +102. Not sure how the AL's highest scoring team is an underdog at home to a pitcher who's ERA is 5.40 and is backed by a questionable bullpen? Fiers does have good #'s in the Trop, but that's all on one start in the past 3 seasons. Rays are 8-2 at home this year, maybe Fiers shuts them down, I just don't see it happening.
Astros/Rays Over 8.
Tigers RL & ML Twins are slumping. After the opening 3 game sweep vs the Royals, the Twins have lost 5 of their last 6 at home. They have scored just 39 runs in their last 12 games (3.25 runs/game). Joe Mauer has hit .333 vs Verlander, the rest of the Twins roster just .156. Verlander looking to bounce back off a bad start in Cleveland last Saturday, and Detroit looking to bounce back off a disappointing series in Tampa.
Tigers/Twins Over 8.5
Royals/Rangers Under 8.5 Last night's total was also in the 8.5 to 9 range. I don't understand this. In 15 games this year, the Royals have scored more than 4 runs in a game just twice, and the pitching staff has surrendered 7 runs in their last 7 games. Royals have played 5 straight games in which the highest run total achieved was 5. The Rangers have scored just 19 runs in their last 7 games (2.71 runs/game). Maybe someone breaks out tonight, but this total would suggest both teams break out. I don't see KC breaking out against a pitcher of Cole Hamels's caliber and Nate Karns has had 2 consecutive good starts for the Royals.
D'Backs ML +125 F5 - D'backs 6-1 at home, coming off a very disappointing series in SD. Alex Wood has some very lofty #'s in Chase Field.
BOL tonight everyone!