MLB is almost here !!...Being an MLB expert I'm crunching the numbers and getting ready for opening day. A very long list of changes this year and getting ahead of the curve will be key for me in 2017. We did well last year, but 2017 will be my best season yet.
I'll go through each NL West teams here and hit on a few notes.
Hope you all enjoy the 2017 season and I hope to see you on board and in the forums this summer.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (Season TT = 77.5)
I'm on the optimistic side with the D-Backs this year. My concern would be pitching, but I think the batting lineup could contend for most HR's and Runs scored this year. They also could be rather high on the strikeout list as well. I projected this team to win around 83 games...That's a big leap from what most think. D-Backs had all kinds of issues last year. Shelby Miller was terrible and it's hard to imagine him not bouncing back. Greinke is Greinke, although he seemed to lose some of his velocity as the season progressed. I think the addition of Walker and having Corbin ready to go for another season gives the rotation some strength. Robbie Ray never impressed me, but he is a arm that is serviceable at times. Overall I think the starting rotation could be one of the better units in the league if they play how they are capable of playing. The bullpen is a concern as it has been for years now. I'm shocked the D-Backs didn't add a quality arm to that group. I guess they think the same as me with the batting order giving a ton of run support. D-Backs on defense could and should improve. They ranked near the bottom in a bunch of areas last year. Health was a concern and new young guys stepping in was a hurdle they had to cross many times last year. I also think the depth of this team is much improved. Ahmed, Descalso, Marte, Herrmann, Hazelbaker Brito....All guys that got quality time last year should help fill in the order on a nightly basis. I think we see the D-Backs make some moves this year to get a bigger arm and a big hitter. Also think they make a splash in the bullpen. One of the lowest payrolls in the league should do something if they are looking good and needing help in a few areas. I could see the D-Backs winning 84-85 games. Way above what most think.
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Colorado Rockies (Season TT = 80)
I was high on the Rockies last year and thought they would go well over the season total. I was right with that projection, but 80 wins this year will be tough. I think the pitching is a bit better, but not enough to get over 80 wins. Gray will be the bright spot and the young kid Hoffman might make a big difference in the future. Bettis is 50/50, but he looked good last year in long stretches. I think he falls back in the pack this year though. Same goes for Chatwood and Anderson. Bullpen wll be bad again this year and I'd be shocked if they break out of the bottom 10 this year. As for the lineup I expect a big regression from the big bats. I know Arenado is a great talent, but how long can he play at this type of level. Same goes for Blackmon and A. Gonzalez. Story was a bright spot last year, but pitchers started to figure out his kryptonite. Wolters does nothing for me and LeMahieu will regress as well. Injuries are starting to be a concern and Dahl is already banged up. I just see a regression from this group as a whole in the batters box. One of the worst defensive teams in the league won't get much better.The pitching believe it or not might surprise a bit at times, but overall I see a team that finishes around 77 wins or below.
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LA Dodgers (Season TT = 94.5)
I feel good about the Dodgers overall this season. I think they finish right around 91-93 wins...95 or above might be tough in the NL West though. Dodgers obviously have one of the better rotations in the league led by Clayton Kershaw. Rich Hill looked rather good and a full season in LA could be a huge factor for the Dodgers this year. Maeda was above average last year and so was Kazmir....Kazmir IMO will be the one to slip up and Urias will be the fastest mover of the bunch. Bullpen will be solid as it has been for the last few years. I don't have much to say about LA...They have the team to win it all, but it's going to take a solid effort from everyone to get it done. A bunch of players right now on this team in the prime and it's now or never for LA. Farm system has a few stars and the depth is average to above average, but not by much. I just feel this is a tough division for LA to win 95 games or more, but they should win the NL West pennant.
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San Diego Padres (Season TT = 66)
Well it won't be a fun year for this bunch, or maybe it will...Not like they are expected to do much except to improve. Padres should contend for one of the worst records in the league. The starting pitching is horrendous.The bullpen might be one of the worst if not thee worst in the league. I don't even see a bright spot for the pitching at all. It's going to be bad.guys. The lineup has a few nice pieces with Myers and Solarte. I actually think the Padres depth is decent for them on a nightly basis. Still they don't have much power or hitters to match up every day of the season. My guess is one guy might hit .300, but you can expect some miserable BA from this group. If the injury bug hits this team in the order or the rotation, they might struggle to win 60 games. A non factor and I like under 66 for a future wager.
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San Francisco Giants (Season TT = 88)
Well most that know me know I root for the Giants every year. Not my favorite team, but one I like to see do well. I'm not high on the Giants this year. They have a good team, but one I feel will struggle at times this year. Pitching is good with Cueto and Mad Bum, but going down the roster I see issues.. Samardzija will start out strong, but he will fade later in the season. Moore could be hit and miss and that's kinda what I expect from him. Cain is a huge question mark. I'm shocked this guy is still pitching at this level. I see the cliff this year for Cain. Bullpen is pretty good, but could have issues in spots...Overall the pitching is above average, but I think they regress this year a tad. The lineup has a ton of hitters, but something worries me about them. I don;t see enough power and this group needs to put power to contend with the NL's top teams. In the end and during the season I think the power lack is going to hurt them. Plus the pitching might fall off a bit and I see the Giants finishing under 88 wins.
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2016 Final Records: 2017 SleepyJ Projection:
LA Dodgers 91-71 LA Dodgers 93-69
SF Giants 87-75 SF Giants 83-79
Col Rockies 75-87 Col Rockies 74-88
AZ D-Backs 69-93 AZ D-Backs 83-79
SD Padres 68-94 SD Padres 61-101