For what it's worth, the postseason has been difficult . Our handicapping system is based on finding mismatches. In the postseason, the teams are much closer, and the edges so minor that it's often close to a crapshoot. That why we cut all our wager amounts in half. That said, we still enjoy the challenge so here goes. We were 6-0-1 in our last 7 picks, but we were struggling before that mini run. We'll see if we can keep it going tonight.
On to tonight's game.
CHI @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
Edge - NONE
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
W %
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cubs
|
1.20
|
3.56
|
3.51
|
3.72
|
22
|
19
|
53.7%
|
38
|
15
|
71.7%
|
75.3%
|
0.208
|
0.262
|
Indians
|
1.24
|
3.45
|
3.55
|
3.71
|
28
|
20
|
58.3%
|
37
|
11
|
77.1%
|
75.3%
|
0.231
|
0.288
|
Edge - CLEV slight
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
61.6
|
2
|
|
98
|
3
|
|
0.315
|
3
|
|
27.7
|
3
|
Indians
|
33.8
|
4
|
|
102
|
6
|
|
0.327
|
6
|
|
23.4
|
6
|
Edge - CHI small
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
|
|
|
Cubs
|
88.6
|
1
|
Indians
|
7.9
|
9
|
Edge - CHI small
There's not much analysis required here. Jon Lester and Corey Kluber are both superb and both have had Cy Young worthy regular seasons and excellent postseasons. There's no real edge to be found here.
Both teams possess excellent bullpens, While it appears that CLEV has a slim edge here, I should point out that Fan Graphs did a very nice piece yesterday, which suggest there is very little edge to be had here. According to author Jeff Sullivan: " I’m not entirely clear on just how much of an advantage the Indians really have... I went ahead and made some guesses about the upcoming bullpens. I gave Cleveland and Chicago seven relievers each, and then I plugged in their actual ERAs and FIPs, and their projected ERAs and FIPs. The last step was weighting the numbers, since the seventh reliever won’t pitch nearly as often as the first or second guy. Weighting requires its own guesses, but I assigned a number between 1 and 7 to each reliever. Zach McAllister, for example, got the 1, for Cleveland. Andrew Miller got the 7. I weighted the numbers by these designations.
Stats!
2016 World Series Bullpens
Team
|
Adj. ERA
|
Adj. FIP
|
Proj. ERA
|
Proj. FIP
|
Cubs
|
2.77
|
2.99
|
2.99
|
3.14
|
Indians
|
2.53
|
3.20
|
3.15
|
3.18
|
“Adj.” just means “Adjusted,” which is a different way of saying “Weighted.” The first two stat columns reflect what the relievers did in 2016. The last two stat columns reflect the projections for the relievers. The Indians look better in the very first column, but that’s also arguably the least-important column of the four. If you put everything together, the Cubs bullpen looks like it’s basically as good as the Indians’ unit. That isn’t something you’d necessarily expect, given that conversations we’ve all been having, but it might just be because relieving has been *the* strength of the Indians. The Cubs have had plenty go right, so the bullpen gets less attention.
The Indians’ big flashy advantage is Miller. Obviously. He can come in in any inning, and he can go multiple innings, and we don’t yet know how hard is too hard to push him. Miller has already handled so much of the workload, but based on precedent, that’s unlikely to keep up to such a degree, unless the Indians somehow manage to sweep. Aroldis Chapman is the Cubs’ equivalent, and he’s barely worse than Miller is. He’s just less flexible, and seemingly less durable. But the Cubs have been prepared to use him in multi-inning stints... The numbers say there’s not really a bullpen gap at all."
Offensively, while both teams are well above average, the Cubs appear to have have the better offense.
Defensively, both team are again well above average, but the Cubs are ranked as having the best defense in baseball.
The Cubs do get an edge on offense and defense, but when it comes to these two starting pitchers and these two bullpens, there's very little difference between then. I still believe than good pitching trumps good hitting, and in this game both teams have excellent pitching, starting and relief. So, rather than choose between them, I expect a pitcher's duel with very few runs scored, and I will wager accordingly. I placed these yesterday because I expected these total might drop, and while 3.5 and 6.5 are still available, but with more juice, I'm also seeing 3s and 6s popping up.
PICK - 1st 5 UNDER3.5 (-110) and UNDER 6.5 (-114)