For what it's worth, yesterday was one of those all too rare great days. We finished with a 10-1-1 record on our posted plays, making us 111-91- 11 for September.
Except for the overpaid David Price and the Red Sox (RL) everybody came through for us.
On to today's games.
BOS @ NYY
The Yankees survive another day, but they're still 4 out with 5 to play, still on life support. The Red Sox are fighting for home field advantage, so both teams should be motivated.
Starting Pitchers
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Buchholz
|
1.42
|
5.29
|
5.17
|
5.37
|
6.02
|
3.58
|
1.63
|
0.264
|
0.278
|
68.70%
|
Mitchell
|
1.72
|
4.50
|
5.41
|
5.26
|
4.5
|
3.5
|
0.5
|
0.324
|
0.359
|
60.80%
|
Edge - BOS
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Red Sox
|
1.27
|
3.51
|
3.53
|
3.94
|
24
|
24
|
42
|
17
|
71.2%
|
75.50%
|
0.231
|
0.299
|
Yankees
|
1.17
|
3.70
|
3.17
|
3.59
|
33
|
19
|
47
|
16
|
74.6%
|
75.80%
|
0.221
|
0.283
|
Edge - NYY
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Red Sox
|
116.2
|
1
|
|
114
|
1
|
|
0.349
|
1
|
|
33.8
|
2
|
Yankees
|
-50.7
|
21
|
|
92
|
22
|
|
0.310
|
24
|
|
13.1
|
24
|
Edge - BOS
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Red Sox
|
7.7
|
15
|
Yankees
|
-18.2
|
24
|
Edge - BOS
In this game NY has 1 edge. They have the better bullpen. If it's close late they'll have a shot. The Red Sox have the best offense in baseball and a huge edge here. They are also the better defensive team. As for the starting pitchers, while it's been another up-and-down season for Clay Buchholz, as he fluctuates between the bullpen and a spot starter role, his pitching has improved notably. He has tossed 5 quality starts. with just 1 bad one, in his last 6 outing as a starter, not allowing more than 2 runs in any of the 5. Bryan Mitchell's made just 4 starts for NY. In the first one, he held TOR to 4 hit and 0 runs in 5 innings. However, in the second, the Dodgers got to him for 9 hit and 6 runs (5 earned) in 2.1 innings. In his 3rd start at BOS, these Red Sox got to him for 5 hits and 4 runs (3 earned) in 4.2 innings. Mitchell's last start at TOR was his best, as he held the Blue Jays to 6 hit and 3 runs (1 earned) in 6 innings. However, Mitchell has allowed 24 hit in 18 innings, and his 9:7 K:BB ratio isn't impressive either. I wpn't bet on that. I'm surprised the Yankees are still in it, I've lost $ twice betting against them this week. I give full kudos to them for fighting the good fight and not giving up, but I think it ends tonight. Buchholz appears to finally be in a good place.
PICK - BOS 1st 5 (-122) and ML (-130)
ARIZ @ WASH
ARIZ got 2 quick one off Max Scherzer, but that was it. The Nats got 4 and got the RL win. WASH's still fighting for home field v the Dodgers and gained a game yesterday.
Starting Pitchers
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Miller
|
1.70
|
6.47
|
5.22
|
5.17
|
6.09
|
3.84
|
1.31
|
0.307
|
0.339
|
64.00%
|
Gonzalez
|
1.31
|
4.51
|
3.94
|
3.79
|
8.65
|
2.9
|
0.98
|
0.252
|
0.308
|
67.30%
|
Edge - WASH
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Diamondbacks
|
1.51
|
5.02
|
4.25
|
4.53
|
20
|
24
|
30
|
21
|
58.8%
|
70.00%
|
0.266
|
0.317
|
Nationals
|
1.19
|
3.28
|
3.52
|
3.83
|
22
|
22
|
43
|
14
|
75.4%
|
75.80%
|
0.230
|
0.289
|
Edge - WASH
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Diamondbacks
|
-30.8
|
17
|
|
93
|
20
|
|
0.321
|
12
|
|
15.1
|
20
|
Nationals
|
-6.1
|
11
|
|
97
|
15
|
|
0.322
|
11
|
|
22.9
|
6
|
Edge - WASH
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Diamondbacks
|
-12.4
|
22
|
Nationals
|
37.8
|
6
|
Edge - WASH
In this game. WASH has all of the edges. The Nationals have the much better bullpen, the slightly better offense and the much better defense. When we consider these two starting pitchers, Shelby Miller is having a terrible season. He's posted a 2-12 record, with just 4 quality starts in his 19 outings (21.1%), including his last one. He does also have 2 starts in which he missed a quality start by just 1 out. However. Miller also has 10 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs (52.6%), including 3 of his last 4. He has gone more than 6 innings just once. Miller has failed to go at least 6 innings in 12 of his 19 starts. He hasn't been just a tough-luck loser on a bad team like he was last year with Atlanta. His poor record with Arizona this year is mostly due to just plain poor pitching. His statistics are terrible, and his peripherals are just as bad. As for Gio Gonzalez, he has been hit or miss this season, very inconsistent. He's 11-10, with 16 quality starts in his 31 outings (51.6%). However, Gonzalez started the season with 5 straight quality starts, which mean that since then he only had 11 more in his next 26 starts (42.3%). He also missed 2 more quality starts by just 1 out each. Gonzalez also has 10 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs (32.3%). He has now pitched 5 innings or less in 3 of his last 4 starts, with his only strong effort over that span coming against a Phillies squad that's been hopeless against lefties all season. In addition to all it's other advantages, WASH is also trying to secure the home field advantage for it's playoff series with LA. There's just no good reason to take ARIZ here. The ML's rather expensive (-170), and a RL bet on this flaky Nats team is never a sure thing, but WASH has every edge here and should win handily, so we'll take a shot on the RL.
PICK - WASH 1st 5 Innings(-161) ML (-160)
CLEV @ DET
CLEV has clinched the division, but is battling BOS and TEX for position. The Indians trail BOS by 1 and TEX by just 1.5. DET, meanwhile is fighting for a wildcard. They currently trail BALT for the final wildcard spot by 1 game. This game's very important.
Starting Pitchers
Edge - DET big
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Indians
|
1.24
|
3.31
|
3.58
|
3.73
|
27
|
19
|
35
|
11
|
76.1%
|
75.90%
|
0.228
|
0.285
|
Tigers
|
1.35
|
4.24
|
3.88
|
4.14
|
29
|
20
|
47
|
19
|
71.2%
|
71.50%
|
0.257
|
0.310
|
Edge - CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
34.3
|
3
|
|
103
|
5
|
|
0.327
|
6
|
|
26.7
|
3
|
Tigers
|
7.4
|
7
|
|
104
|
4
|
|
0.328
|
4
|
|
18.4
|
16
|
Edge - CLEV slight
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
25.6
|
10
|
Tigers
|
-28.4
|
27
|
Edge - CLEV
In this game CLEV has most of the edges. DET has a decent bullpen, but CLEV has a better one. DET has a very potent offense, but CLEV's is even more so. Clev is a very good defensive team, and DET is not. However, when we get to the starting pitchers, it's a totally different story. Monday, CLEV had the edge with Corey Kluber, a legitimate Cy young contender. Yesterday, DET had an equally large edge with Verlander, it's Cy Cyoung contending. Tonight CLEV sends reliever Zach McAllister . He's only started 1 game this season, in which he walked 2 and then allowed a 3 run HR in his 1 inning. He's rarely worked more than 1 inning in any of his relief appearances either. There's certainly no reason to bet on McAllister. As for rookie Michael Fulmer, he's having a very good season, posting an 11-7 record, with 14 quality starts in his 25 outing (56%) including 3 of his last 4. Fulmer has allowed 4 or more earned runs just 5 times all season (20%). With everything else being close, this starting pitcher mismatch is enough to bet on.
PICL - DET 1st 5 Innings (-134) and ML (-126)
MINN @ KC
The Twins are just playing out the string, They were never in it. The Royals are 5 out, with 5 to play for the final wild card. They are still the walking dead.
Starting Pitchers
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Santana
|
1.22
|
3.37
|
4.29
|
4.22
|
7.45
|
2.65
|
0.92
|
0.244
|
0.287
|
73.90%
|
Vargas
|
0.86
|
3.86
|
4.87
|
5.20
|
6.43
|
2.57
|
1.29
|
0.154
|
0.150
|
65.20%
|
Edge MINN
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Twins
|
1.44
|
4.67
|
3.83
|
4.15
|
21
|
31
|
24
|
20
|
54.5%
|
71.10%
|
0.273
|
0.325
|
Royals
|
1.28
|
3.45
|
3.68
|
3.95
|
30
|
22
|
40
|
18
|
69.0%
|
77.60%
|
0.245
|
0.299
|
Edge - KC
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-25.3
|
16
|
|
95
|
18
|
|
0.317
|
14
|
|
12.6
|
25
|
Royals
|
-85.9
|
28
|
|
89
|
27
|
|
0.308
|
26
|
|
14.5
|
21
|
Edge - MINN
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-55.4
|
29
|
Royals
|
30.4
|
8
|
Edge - KC
In this game, the Royals have most of the edges. They have the much better bullpen and are the much better defensive team. The Twins do have the better offense. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Although his 7-11 record isn't great, Ervin Santana has actually pitched much better, with 17 quality starts in his 29 outings (58.6%), including 3 of his last 4. Snatana has allowed at least 4 earned runs just 5 times this season (17.2%), and just once since the middle of June. Santana's pitching has been one of the few bright spots for the Twins this season, particularly his 1.15 WHIP, his 2.70 ERA, his 9 quality starts, hus 1 srt allowing more than 3 earned runs, and his 78:26 k:BB ratio, in his 13 starts since the All-Star break. He is also striking out batters at a significantly higher rate, upping his K/9 ratio from 6.58 to 7.45. As for Jason Vargas, he has made just 2 starts for the Royals after he missed nearly the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Royals are treating him with kid gloves. He's only thrown 120 pitches in his 7 innings, allowing 4 hits and 3 earned run, with 5 strikeout and 2 walks. This is a tough game to gauge, without much motivation for either team. However, Santana's pitched very well, particularly since the AS break, while Vargas is still taking baby steps in his comeback.
PICK - MINN 1st 5 Innings (+105) and ML (+123)
MIL @ TEX
Mil is just playing out the string, while TEX is battling BOS and CLEV for home field advantage,
Starting Pitchers
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Anderson
|
1.34
|
4.29
|
4.64
|
4.71
|
7.22
|
3.11
|
1.62
|
0.258
|
0.284
|
74.90%
|
Hamels
|
1.31
|
3.30
|
4.02
|
3.86
|
9.02
|
3.58
|
1.07
|
0.241
|
0.297
|
80.10%
|
Edge - TEX
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Brewers
|
1.34
|
3.65
|
4.03
|
4.34
|
21
|
24
|
44
|
19
|
69.8%
|
75.80%
|
0.248
|
0.298
|
Rangers
|
1.38
|
4.54
|
4.04
|
4.26
|
40
|
19
|
55
|
17
|
76.4%
|
72.20%
|
0.261
|
0.301
|
Edge TEX very slight
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Brewers
|
-62.5
|
24
|
|
90
|
24
|
|
0.315
|
18
|
|
12
|
26
|
Rangers
|
-13.9
|
14
|
|
98
|
14
|
|
0.324
|
9
|
|
18
|
17
|
Edge - TEX
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Brewers
|
-8.2
|
19
|
Rangers
|
-10.1
|
21
|
Edge - MIL slight
In this game, neither team has a really good bullpen. I'll give TEX a very slight edge. Defensively, these teams are again very close, with MIL getting a small edge. However, when we get to the offenses, TEX has a big edge. As for the starting pitchers, Chase anderson hasn't had a particularly good season. He's 9-11, with just 6 quality starts in his 29 outings (20.7%). He also has 3 starts which missed by just 1 out. However, Anderson also has 7 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs (24.1%), but none in his last 15 starts. Anderson has put together a solid September for the Brewers, going 2-2 while giving up just 3 earned runs on 17 hits in 22.1 innings. He has done this by keeping the baseball inside the park and forcing ground balls on almost 47 percent of at-bats, a strong 17 percentage points higher than his ground ball rate for August. As for Cole Hamels, he's having a stellar season with a 15-5 record and 21 quality starts in his 31 outings (67.7%), including 8 of his last 11. Hamels also has 7 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs, including 3 of his last 5. This one's not the "lock it originally looked like. Hamels has had 3 bad outings in his last 5, while Anderson has pitched his best ball of the season this month. However the botto, line is that I still trust Cole Hamels a hell of a lot more more that I trust Chase Anderson, especially with the much better offense backing him. The ML is too expensive -200, so we'll give the RL a shot.
PICK - TEX RL (-105)