For what it's worth, yesterday we finished with a 4-5 record on our posted plays, making us 101-90- 10 for September.
On to today's games.
BOS @ NYY
The Yankees survive another day, but they're still 5 out with 6 to play, on life support. The Red Sox are fighting for home field advantage, so bothe teams are mpotivated.
Starting Pitchers
Edge - BOS
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Red Sox
|
1.27
|
3.51
|
3.53
|
3.94
|
24
|
24
|
42
|
17
|
71.2%
|
75.50%
|
0.231
|
0.299
|
Yankees
|
1.17
|
3.70
|
3.17
|
3.59
|
32
|
19
|
46
|
15
|
75.4%
|
75.80%
|
0.221
|
0.283
|
Edge - NYY *Apparently Betances won't be available to NY tonight. Thanks KJ Colby for the heads up.
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Red Sox
|
116.2
|
1
|
|
114
|
1
|
|
0.349
|
1
|
|
33.8
|
2
|
Yankees
|
-50.7
|
21
|
|
92
|
22
|
|
0.310
|
24
|
|
13.1
|
24
|
Edge - BOS
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Red Sox
|
7.7
|
15
|
Yankees
|
-18.2
|
24
|
Edge - BOS
In this game NY has 1 edge. They have the better bullpen. If it's close late they'll have a shot. The Red Sox have the best offense in baseball and a huge edge here. They are also the better defensive team. As for the starting pitchers, after a somewhat rocky and inconsistent start, David Price had been absolutely dominant of late, winning 8 straight games n his last 9 outings , all 8 of which were quality starts. The one exception was 2 starts ago v these Yankees, in which he got battered for 9 hit and 5 earned runs in 6 innings. The Red Sox offense bailed him out and left him with a no decision. On the season, Price is 17-8, with 22 quality starts in his 33 outings (66.7%). He also missed 2 more quality starts by just 1 out each. Price also has 9 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs (27.3%). Luis has pitched pretty effectively since joining the NY rotation 7 starts ago. He's only 2-3, but has tossed 4 quality starts (57.1%), and has allowed more than 3 earned runs just once (14.35). The ML's close to -200, so we'll look to the RL. Cessa hasn't been bad, but and this is why BOS spent boatloads of $ on Price. We'll take a shot with Price and trust the potent BOS offense to get some runs.
PICK - BOS RL (-111)
ARIZ @ WASH
ARIZ jumped all over Tanner Roark last night for a easy W. WASH's stull fighting for homefield v the Dodgers and Scherzer's trying to win a NL Cy Young award.
Starting Pitchers
Edge - WASH *Koch hasn't started any games, these #s are base on his relief outings.
Bullpens
Diamondbacks
|
1.51
|
5.02
|
4.25
|
4.53
|
20
|
23
|
30
|
21
|
58.8%
|
70.00%
|
0.266
|
0.317
|
Nationals
|
1.19
|
3.28
|
3.52
|
3.83
|
22
|
22
|
42
|
14
|
75.0%
|
75.80%
|
0.230
|
0.289
|
Edge - WASH
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Diamondbacks
|
-30.8
|
17
|
|
93
|
20
|
|
0.321
|
12
|
|
15.1
|
20
|
Nationals
|
-6.1
|
11
|
|
97
|
15
|
|
0.322
|
11
|
|
22.9
|
6
|
Edge - WASH
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Diamondbacks
|
-12.4
|
22
|
Nationals
|
37.8
|
6
|
Edge - WASH
In this game. WASH has all of the edges. The Nationals have the much better bullpen, the slightly better offense and the much better defense. When we consider these two starting pitchers, it's equally one sided. Matt Koch has made 5 appearances out of the ARIZ pen. He's allowed just 1 run, a solo HR. However in 4 of the 5 he only threw 1 inning. He's only allowed 3 hits, but he does have 3 walks along with 4 strikeouts. He's pretty much a total unknown. As mentioned earlier, Max Scherzer is contending for the NL Cy Young award with a 18-7 record, and 25 quality starts in his 32 outings (78.1%), including his last 6. He also has 7 starts in which he's allowed more than 3 earned runs (21.9%). As in the BOS/NYY matchup, the ML here is even higher (WASH -270-280). So we'll look to the RL and hope flaky WASH brings it's bats tonight.
PICK - WASH RL (-120)
In addition to all it's other advantages, WASH is also trying to secure the home field advantage for it's playoff series with LA. There's just no good reason to take ARIZ here. The ML's rather expensive (-180), and a RL bet on this flaky Nats team is never a sure thing, but WASH has every edge here and should win handily, so we'll take a shot on the RL.
PICK - WASH 1st 5 Innings(-175) ML (-173) RL (+130)
CHI CUBS @ PITT
PITT's playoff chances are on life support. They're 5 out with just 6 to play. They pretty much need a miracle. CHI's clinched everything they can, division and home field. They now have 100 wins.
Starting Pitchers
Edge - CHI
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cubs
|
1.20
|
3.51
|
3.51
|
3.72
|
21
|
19
|
36
|
15
|
70.6%
|
75.60%
|
0.209
|
0.264
|
Pirates
|
1.33
|
3.42
|
3.94
|
4.18
|
28
|
20
|
51
|
18
|
73.9%
|
77.40%
|
0.244
|
0.295
|
Edge - CHI small
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
61.5
|
2
|
|
106
|
2
|
|
0.334
|
3
|
|
38.2
|
1
|
Pirates
|
-8.7
|
13
|
|
100
|
9
|
|
0.320
|
13
|
|
20.2
|
8
|
Edge - CHI small
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
115.5
|
1
|
Pirates
|
13
|
13
|
Edge - CHI
CHI has most of the edges in this game, they have the better bullpen, the slightly better offense and the better defense. When we get to the two starting pitchers, John Lackey's had a good season. He's only 10-8, but with 20 quality starts in his 28 outings (71.4%), including 7 of his last 9. He also has 7 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs (25%), but just 2 since the AS break. Lackey has given up 2 or fewer runs 5 times in his last 6 starts. 39 year old Ryan Vogelsong has struggled this season. He's only 3-6, with only 3 quality starts in his 12 outings as a starter (25%), and none since August 21. Since that August 21 outing, Vogelsong has made 7 starts and allowed at least 4 earned runs in 4 of them. I really don't know what to expect from the Cubs. They surprised me with their offensive explosion, as an early grand slam turned the game into a rout. However, I expect very little from Vogelsong. I think he's well past his prime. So I'll wager on the better teama dn hope for the best.
PICK - CHI 1st 5 Innings (-165) ML (-157) and RL (+103)
CLEV @ DET
CLEV has clinched the division, but is battling BOS and TEX for position. The Indians trail BOS by 1 and TEX by just 0.5. DET, meanwhile is fighting for a wildcard. They currently trail BALT for the final wildcard spot by 2. This game's very important.
Starting Pitchers
Edge - DET big
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Indians
|
1.24
|
3.31
|
3.58
|
3.73
|
27
|
19
|
35
|
11
|
76.1%
|
75.90%
|
0.228
|
0.285
|
Tigers
|
1.35
|
4.24
|
3.88
|
4.14
|
29
|
20
|
47
|
19
|
71.2%
|
71.50%
|
0.257
|
0.310
|
Edge - CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
34.3
|
3
|
|
103
|
5
|
|
0.327
|
6
|
|
26.7
|
3
|
Tigers
|
7.4
|
7
|
|
104
|
4
|
|
0.328
|
4
|
|
18.4
|
16
|
Edge - CLEV slight
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
25.6
|
10
|
Tigers
|
-28.4
|
27
|
Edge - CLEV
In this game CLEV has most of the edges. DET has a decent bullpen, but CLEV has a better one. DET has a very potent offense, but CLEV's is even more so. Clev is a very good defensive team, and DET is not. However, when we get to the starting pitchers, it's a totally different story. Last night Clev had the edge with Corey Kluber, a legitimate Cy young contender. Tonight CLEV sends rookie Mike Clevinger to the mound. He's only 2-2, but has yet to register a quality start in any of his 9 outings as a starter. In fact he's gone more than 5 innings just once. His lest than stellar 47:27 K:BB ratio might explain why. As for Justin Verlander, he is having a great season. He's 15-8, with 25 quality starts in his 32 outings (78.1%), including 13 of his last 14. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 5 times all season (15.6%) and has not done so since the end of June Like Kluber, Verlander is definitely in the running for another Cy Young award. With everything else being close, this strating pitcher mismatch is huge. The oddsmakers apparently agree because I couldn't find a ML at less than -200. RL's are always risky, but we'll try another here.
PICL - DET RL (+105)
MINN @ KC
The Twins are just playing out the string, They were never in it. The Royals are 6 out, with 6 to play for the final wild card. They are the walking dead.
Starting Pitchers
Edge - KC
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Twins
|
1.44
|
4.67
|
3.83
|
4.15
|
21
|
30
|
24
|
20
|
54.5%
|
71.10%
|
0.273
|
0.325
|
Royals
|
1.28
|
3.45
|
3.68
|
3.95
|
29
|
22
|
40
|
18
|
69.0%
|
77.60%
|
0.245
|
0.299
|
Edge - KC
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-25.3
|
16
|
|
95
|
18
|
|
0.317
|
14
|
|
12.6
|
25
|
Royals
|
-85.9
|
28
|
|
89
|
27
|
|
0.308
|
26
|
|
14.5
|
21
|
Edge - MINN
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-55.4
|
29
|
Royals
|
30.4
|
8
|
Edge - KC
In this game, the Royals have most of the edges. They have the much better bullpen and are the much better defensive team. The Twins do have the better offense. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Rookie Jose Berrios has really struggled this season. He's 2-7, with just 1 quality start in his 12 outings (8.3%). He's allowed more than 4 earned runs 7 times (58.3%) Ian Kennedy's been streaky, but overall he's pitched pretty well. He's 11-10, with 15 quality starts in his 31 outings (48.4%). He also has 9 starts in which he's allowed more than 4 earned runs (29%). Since the beginning of August, Kennedy has made 10 starts, going 5-1 with a stellar 2.48 ERA over 61.2 innings. This is a tough one to gauge, without much motivation for either team. But Kennedy's pitched well, while berrios has not.
PICK - KC 1st 5 Innings (-160) and ML (-155)
NYM @ MIA
The Mets are currently leading the NL wildcard race by a half game over SF and 1 over STL. MIA trails SF for the final spot by 4.5, with 6 to play. That's a tough spot.
Starting Pitchers
Edge - NYM
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mets
|
1.27
|
3.62
|
3.49
|
3.90
|
29
|
19
|
53
|
15
|
77.9%
|
76.00%
|
0.235
|
0.299
|
Marlins
|
1.34
|
3.56
|
3.91
|
4.15
|
30
|
28
|
54
|
29
|
65.1%
|
76.00%
|
0.231
|
0.295
|
Edge - NYM
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
-34.1
|
19
|
|
96
|
16
|
|
0.313
|
19
|
|
18.6
|
14
|
Marlins
|
-59.3
|
23
|
|
92
|
22
|
|
0.310
|
24
|
|
18.8
|
13
|
Edge - NYM close
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
28
|
9
|
Marlins
|
54
|
5
|
Edge - MIA close
In this game NY has the bettern bullpen and the slightly better offense. Mia is a little stronger defensively. As for the two starting pitchers, Noah Syndergaard is having a good season. He's 13-9 with 19 quality starts in his 29 outings 65.5%). He's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 4 times (13.8%). Syndergaard's coming off one of his worst outings, in which he allowed 8 hits and 5 runs to aTL in just 3.2 innings. However in his previous 7 starts, he handn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of them. As for Tom Koehler, he 's still the same mediocre pitcher that he always has been. He's 9-12, with a 1.42 WHIP and a 4.02 ERA. He's perfectly capable of pitching very well for stretches, then he reverts back. He still allows too many base runners (167 H and 74 BB in 170 IP) which explains the high WHIP. In this game, it is possible that Tom Koehler could very well pitch another good game, or he could just as easily put too many runner on base again, and some of them could score. The Mets have the clear edge at starting pitcher as well. However, this game is about more than the matchup. I wanted no part of last night's game, because of the emotion involved. MIA palyed that game with incredible intensity. The played it and won it for Jose Fernandez. Maybe I should stay aeway again today, but after such an emotional effort last night, I kind of expect them to be flat tonight. It's difficult to sustain that. Last night was all about a final tributre to a great teammate, but I think reality creeps back in tonight.
PICK - NYM 1st 5 Innings (-172) and ML (-160)
TB @ CHI WS
Starting Pitchers
Edge - CHI
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rays
|
1.37
|
4.13
|
3.97
|
4.24
|
19
|
32
|
39
|
17
|
69.6%
|
76.80%
|
0.252
|
0.295
|
White Sox
|
1.41
|
3.68
|
4.13
|
4.31
|
24
|
22
|
42
|
28
|
60.0%
|
74.60%
|
0.246
|
0.303
|
Edge - TB small
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
-3
|
9
|
|
100
|
9
|
|
0.316
|
16
|
|
17.6
|
18
|
White Sox
|
-48.3
|
20
|
|
94
|
19
|
|
0.313
|
19
|
|
14.1
|
23
|
Edge - TB
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
-22.8
|
25
|
White Sox
|
-13.6
|
23
|
Edge - CHI WS slight
In this game TB has a small edge in the bullpen, and TB has the better offense. CHI has the slightly better defense. When we get to the starting pitchers, Alex Cobb had been pitching well in his return from Tommy John, posting a 3.06 ERA, with 2 quality starts in his 3 starts. Then he ran into the Yankees, who lit him up for 9 hits and 7 runs in just 1.1 innings. As for Chris Sale, he's having an outstanding season, posting a 16-9 record, with 22 quality starts in his 30 outing (73.3%), including 6 of his last 7. Sale has allowed more than 3 earned runs just 6 times (20%), including his last start. That start marked Sale's second-shortest outing of the season, but was arguably his most humiliating performance (7 h, 6 R 4 IP) this season. Entering the game, the Phillies owned MLB's second-worst team batting average (.238) and ranked dead last in team OPS (.682). Sale had pitched at least 8 innings in each of his previous 5 starts, owning a 1.50 ERA while notching 50 strikeouts over 42 innings in that span. I expect a big bounce back from Sale, while I'm not so sure about Cobb.
PICK - CHI WS ML (-165)
CIN @ STL
Starting Pitchers
Edge - STL
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Reds
|
1.49
|
5.01
|
4.42
|
4.80
|
23
|
30
|
26
|
24
|
52.0%
|
72.20%
|
0.253
|
0.288
|
Cardinals
|
1.22
|
3.54
|
3.70
|
3.92
|
25
|
21
|
37
|
15
|
71.2%
|
74.70%
|
0.223
|
0.272
|
Edge - STL
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Reds
|
-81
|
25
|
|
90
|
24
|
|
0.311
|
22
|
|
14.2
|
22
|
Cardinals
|
2
|
8
|
|
103
|
5
|
|
0.327
|
6
|
|
19.5
|
11
|
Edge - STL
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Reds
|
32.7
|
7
|
Cardinals
|
-1
|
18
|
Edge - CIN
With the exception of defense, STL holds every other edge, and by a wide margin. They have a much better bullpen, a much better offense and the better starting pticher. Adam Wainwright isn't having a great season, but he's till been a lot better than Robert Stephenson. Add to that, the fact that the Cards trail SF by a half a game for the final wildcard and I'll take my chances with the Cards. The ML's well over -200
PICK - STL RL (+101)