PADRES (Perdomo) at MARLINS (Nicolino)
Take: PADRES F5 (likely even money neighborhood)
Straight starting pitcher play here. San Doego righty Luis Perdomo is really nothing more than a #4 starter at this point, although he has shown some improvement lately. But Justin Nicolino is the key to this call. The lefty is back up from the minors for another start, but that’s only because Andrew Cashner got scratched and the Marlins are pretty much stuck for a pitcher at this point.
Nicolino has yet to establish he can succeed in The Show. He’s a finesse lefty and actually, it’s not like he’s even doing especially well at AAA. Nicolino at the major league level has been beyond bad. Opposing hitters have hit him hard, and the southpaw just doesn’t have a put away pitch. 30 K’s in 65 innings is not a recipe for success, and perhaps even more telling is the fact Nicolino has only 49 whiffs in 85 minor league frames this season. It’s not like I’m going to auto-fade every pitcher with a low K rate, but Nicolino is beyond that. When that many balls are put into play, big innings are simply going to happen more than they ought to.
Once this game gets to the bullpen the advantage clearly shifts to the Marlins. So this is a game where I definitely feel playing the first half rather than the full game is the logical move. I’ll hope Perdomo builds off what was a very good last outing and I’ll back the Padres with a F5 wager here.