For what it's worth, yesterday was a very good day. Again we started strong, but this time we stumble down the stretch and finished a 5-1 record on our posted plays. That brings our August posted plays to 131-104-7.
BOS/TB - Under 4 1st 5 W Easy cover, 0-0 after 5. Both pitchers were really "on".
DET/MINN - Over 9.5 W It was 6-0 after 2. This one flew over
WASH - RL W Jimenez was better than expected, but Scherzer (8 IP, 2 H, 10 K) just blew the O's away.
TOR - RL L A rare good outing for Weaver and Happ's 2nd subpar start
TEX - 1st 5 and ML W- W Tomlin (4.1 IP, 6 H, 7 ER), Hamels (8 IP, 2 H, 8 K).
We had 3 other games on our radar, but didn't post or bet them
STL - We leaned STL but didn't trust Wainwright, apparently with good reason
SEA - We liked SEA, but chose to avoid Paxton in his 1st start after missing 2 starts with a shoulder injury
SF - The numbers said bet Moore, but how can anyone trust SF right now?
On to today's games
KC @ BOS
Ian Kennedy is having a somewhat disappointing season for KC. He's just 8-9, with 12 quality starts in his 25 outings (48%), including his last 5. He also has 6 starts in which he has allowed at least 4 earned runs (24%). He started the season the fast track, with 3 straight quality starts. He then followed that up with an 11 start stretch, that consisted of just 2 quality starts, and 5 with 4 or more earned runs. However since the beginning of July, Kennedy has really turned it on, producing a 1.09 WHIP, a 3.02 ERA and 6 quality starts in his 10 outings. Since July 30, it's a 0.85 WHIP and a 0.79 ERA, and the Royals have gone 17-7 during that same stretch. That's not a coincidence.
Steven Wright was having a pretty good season for the Red Sox. In early August, one week after jamming his right shoulder while diving into second base as a pinch runner, Wright was placed on the 15-day disabled list because of inflammation in his right shoulder. Prior to hitting the DL, Wright was 13-5, with 15 quality starts in his 22 outings (68.2%), including his last outing. He's only allowed 4 or more earned runs 4 time this season, but 3 of the 4 have occurred since July 1. Even before his injury, Wright was pitching much better earlier in the season. From April through the end of June, he produced a 1.14 WHIP, a 2.18 ERA, 12 quality starts, and just one start in which he allowed more than 3 earned runs, in his 15 outings. Sinc the beginning of July, Wright's performance has tailed off somewhat, with a 1.33 WHIP, a 4.95 ERA, 3 quality starts, and 3 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs in his 7 outings.
Edge - KC
The numbers appear to be very close, but since July 1, Kennedy's been clearly better, and that doesn't even begin to factor in Wright's injury or the fact that this is his first start since coming off the DL.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Royals
|
1.22
|
3.12
|
3.58
|
3.88
|
23
|
13
|
32
|
12
|
72.7%
|
79.90%
|
0.234
|
0.289
|
Red Sox
|
1.31
|
3.87
|
3.66
|
4.13
|
18
|
22
|
33
|
14
|
70.2%
|
73.30%
|
0.236
|
0.302
|
Edge - KC
Both teams have good bullpens, but KC is the better of the two.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Royals
|
-75.5
|
27
|
|
88
|
27
|
|
0.306
|
25
|
|
10.1
|
23
|
Red Sox
|
94.9
|
1
|
|
115
|
1
|
|
0.351
|
1
|
|
27
|
2
|
Edge - BOS
No question here. BOS has the vastly superior offense.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Royals
|
19.2
|
11
|
Red Sox
|
4.2
|
17
|
Edge KC
In this game, BOS only has one edge. They absolutely have the much better offense, and if this game becomes a slugfest, KC won't be able to keep up. That being said, KC has pretty much every other edge. BOS has a decent bullpen, but the KC bullpen is really good, and definitely the better of the two units. KC is stronger defensively as well. And finally, KC has the better starting pitcher going tonight. Steven Wright's been very good, but (1) he's definitiely tailed off since the AS break, and (2) he's just back from a stint on the DL with an injured shoulder. We don't know, what condition that shoulder's in, and since he missed most of August, he could be rusty. Ian Kennedy's been on a roll for the last 2 months, and he's been on fire throughout August. The defending champs are making a legitimate run at the playoffs and have a lot of momentum going into this game. I'm not anxious to bet against the Royals right now. I like the way Kennedy's pitching, and with that bullpen, if they get a few runs, they're going to be tough to beat. By the same token, I'm not expecting much from Wright in this situation. So at a real nice dog price...
PICK - KC ML 1st 5 Innings (+150) and ML (+151)
LAA @ DET
Ricky Nolasco did not pitch very well for the Twins, and he hasn't been any better with the Angels. On the season, he's just 4-11, with 11 quality starts in his 25 outings (44%). However, Nolasco also has 12 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs (48%), including 2 of his last 4. With the Twins, Nolasco produced a 4-8 record, a 1.35 WHIP, a 5.13 ERA, 10 quality starts, and 10 in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs, in his 21 outing. Since being acquired by the Angels, he's 0-3, with a 1.31 WHIP, a 5.70 ERA, 1 quality start and 2 tarts in which he's allowed 5 earned runs, in his 4 starts. We've seen Nolasco produce a handful of fine outings, like 3 starts ago at the Cubs (6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER). However, they've been mixed in with even more blowups, so he remains impossible to bet on.
Justin Verlander is having a very good season for the Tigers. He's 13-7, with 20 quality starts in his 26 outings (76.9%), including his last 8, and 9 of his last 10, He just missed his 21st by a single out despite allowing just 2 runs in that game. He's only allowed more than 3 earned runs 5 times (19.2%), but in 3 of those, he gave up 7, 7 and 8 runs. Verlander doesn't pitch poorly very often, but when he does, he can get lit up. Verlander's 181 strikeouts, in 173.1 innings, are already far above his total in 2015 (113 in 133.1 IP), or 2014 (159 in 206 IP). In his 10 July and August starts, Verlander is 6-1, with a ridiculous 0.89 WHIP, an equally ridiculous 1.97 ERA, 9 quality starts and a near miss (he didn't allow more than 2 earned runs in any of the outings), and a 74:17 K:BB.
Edge - DET
Verlander's just much better, across the board.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Angels
|
1.29
|
3.91
|
4.11
|
4.46
|
17
|
18
|
20
|
16
|
55.6%
|
74.50%
|
0.249
|
0.286
|
Tigers
|
1.36
|
4.31
|
3.86
|
4.12
|
19
|
17
|
38
|
14
|
73.1%
|
71.00%
|
0.263
|
0.313
|
Edge - DET
This is closer, but DET has the stronger pen with better metrics.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Angels
|
-6.4
|
14
|
|
101
|
9
|
|
0.315
|
20
|
|
15.9
|
11
|
Tigers
|
-3.8
|
12
|
|
101
|
9
|
|
0.324
|
9
|
|
12.2
|
20
|
Edge - DET slight
This one's very close, as we have two good offenses. DET ranks slightly higher.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Angels
|
9.7
|
14
|
Tigers
|
-30.9
|
27
|
Edge - LAA
The Tigers are still a lousy defensive team. The Angels are sngificantly better.
In this game, the Angels have a defensive edge, but that's about it. Their offense isn't bad, but DET's is a little better. Neither team has a great bullpen, but DET's is clearly the better of the two. And, when we look at the two starting pitchers, it's a complete mismatch. Nolasco's not very good. He never has been and he never will be. On the other hand, Verlander looks like he discovered the fountain of youth. He pitching better than he has in years. He's on a major roll and I don't expect it to stop here. The ML is pushing -200, which is expensive, but we can still get the rL at plus $
PICK - DET RL (+108)
SD @ MIA
Jerrad Cosart was dealing with an oblique injury that's kept him on the DL for a while, but he appears healthy now. However, prior to his stint on the DL, Cosart had allowed 14 runs (13 earned) over 14.2 innings in his 3 major league starts. In those 3 starts he walked almost twice as many (15) and he struck out (8). Since returning, Cosart made 1 start for MIA v PHIL in which he allowed 3 hits, but no earned runs in 5 innings, with 3 strikeouts and 1 walk. He was then traded to the Padres. In 4 starts with SD, he has allowed 22 hits and 7 earned runs, in 20 innings, with 17 strikeouts and 10 walks. That translated to a 1.60 WHIP, a 3.15 ERA, 1 quality start, a near miss and 1 in which he allowed 5 earned runs. That's areal mixed bag, but the 1.60 WHIP suggests that Cosart's been extremely lucky to have only allowed 7 earned runs. It could easily have been much worse. Cosart continues to exhibit control problem as well. He's walked at least 2 in 6 of his 8 starts this season, and 6 in 3 of them. For the season, that's 26 walks in 39.2 innings.
David Phelps has started 4 straight games for the Marlins, after working exclusively out of the bullpen out of the bullpen for most of the season. As a starter, he's posted a 2-1 record, with one quality start. However, Phelps hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of them, 1 or less in 3, and 0 in 2. That translates to a 1.02 WHIP, and a 1.31 ERA, with 26 strikeouts (17 in hist last 2) and 7 walks, in his 20.2 innings as a starter. Phelps has also gone long in each outing, from 4.1 in his 1st start to 6 full in his last.
Edge MIA
We have limited data on both of these pitchers, but the difference between them is glaring.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Padres
|
1.34
|
4.36
|
4.01
|
4.40
|
21
|
14
|
25
|
14
|
64.1%
|
71.20%
|
0.241
|
0.290
|
Marlins
|
1.33
|
3.57
|
3.90
|
4.19
|
25
|
22
|
46
|
24
|
65.7%
|
75.60%
|
0.229
|
0.295
|
Edge - MIA small
This is close, but what edges there are lean to MIA. However, MIA's extensive use of their pen all season is a concern.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Padres
|
-42.3
|
20
|
|
89
|
23
|
|
0.302
|
28
|
|
10.9
|
22
|
Marlins
|
-29.2
|
18
|
|
95
|
17
|
|
0.319
|
14
|
|
17.8
|
8
|
Edge - MIA
MIA has just an average offense, but the SD offense is well below average. Also, MIA hits righties much better (rank #10) than SD (rank #30).
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Padres
|
3.8
|
19
|
Marlins
|
50.2
|
4
|
Edge - MIA
MIA is the much stronger defensive team
In this matchup, MIA appear to have all the edges. The bullpens are close, but MIA has whatever edges there are. On offense and defense, MIA is just better, even without Stanton. When we look at the two starting pitchers, I'm not sure that I completely trust either, but there is no question which of these two has pitched better this year. Cosart hasn't shown me any reason to put money on him. He walks too many and he's been damn lucky that he hasn't allowed more runs than he has. As for Phelps, I saw a lot of him with the Yankees a few years ago. At best, he's adequate, but not exceptional . He's pitched very well so far this season for MIA, and that puts him way ahead of Cosart IMO. With all the other edges MIS has, there just no reason to bet on SD here. However, the ML is close to -200, and Phelps isn't that good, but at a nice plus $ price, I'll take a shot on the RL
PICK - MIA RL (+118)
PHIL @ NYM
The Phillies, at 59-68, aren't threatening for any playoff spot this season. However they have been much better than anyone (including me ) expected. The Phillies have been competitive primarily because of a promising young pitching staff. However, Adam Morgan hasn't had much to do with that. He's a miserable 1-7, with just 5 quality starts in his 14 outings as a starter (35.7%). He has also allowed at least 4 earned runs 6 times (42.9%). On the Road, Moran is 1-2, with a 1.61 WHIP, a 6.40 ERA, 2 quality starts, and 3 in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs. There's just not much positive to say about Adam Morgan, and there's no good reason to bet on him.
Bartolo Colon continues to surprise me. Several years ago he was a real stud, but that was a long time ago. I'm absolutely amazed that he's still in the majors, muc less pitching effectively. I started out this season fading Colon, and lost money doing so. Then, I just passed on most of his starts. I still didn't like or trust him, but I didn't want to lose anymore by betting against "the old fat guy". I decided to bet against him in his last start and he burned me again. Colon is 11-7, with 16 quality starts in his 25 outings (64%), including 3 of his last 4. He missed a 17th by just 1 out, when he allowed 4 runs (all unearned) and was pulled after 5.2 innings. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 4 times this season (16%). Colon needs to hit his spots to be effective. He's hittable (156 H, 144.2 IP), but he doesn't walk batters (26). If you're going to score of Colon, you need to get hits, because he won't give away anything.
Edge - NYM
Colon Doesn't have great numbers, but they are better than Morgan;s.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Phillies
|
1.38
|
4.39
|
3.81
|
4.16
|
20
|
18
|
37
|
12
|
75.5%
|
75.30%
|
0.258
|
0.308
|
Mets
|
1.28
|
3.73
|
3.62
|
4.05
|
20
|
16
|
43
|
12
|
78.2%
|
75.40%
|
0.233
|
0.292
|
Edge - NYM
The Mets have the better number across the board.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Phillies
|
-104.3
|
29
|
|
80
|
29
|
|
0.297
|
29
|
|
6.5
|
28
|
Mets
|
-45.6
|
22
|
|
93
|
20
|
|
0.307
|
23
|
|
11.2
|
21
|
Edge - NYM
Both teams are offensively challenged, but the Phillies are more so.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Phillies
|
24.5
|
7
|
Mets
|
12.1
|
13
|
Edge - PHIL
Both reams are solid on defense, but PHIL is a little better.
In this game, the only thing PHIL has going for them is the better defense. Neither has a good offense, but the Mets appear to be a little stronger. In the bullpen, the Mets are better as well. As far as the starting pitchers go, I still don't really like putting $ on "the fat old guy", but I'm here to tell that fading him has cost me. He's amazingly (to me) effective and he knows how to pitch. As for Adam Morgan, he's the real basis for my wager. There no reason to put $ on him, and there's lots of got reasons to bet against him. So that's what I'm doing.
PICK - NYM ML 1st 5 Innings (-150) and ML (-160)
CLEV @ TEX
Corey Kluber is having a very good season for the Indians, and just may be making a late run at another Cy Young . He's 13-8 with 18 quality starts in his 25 outings(72%), including his last 8, and 10 of his last 11. Kluber also has 171 strikeouts and only 42 walks, in 169.2 innings. Kluber does have has 7 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs (28%), and 5 in which it was 5 or more. Unfortunately there's no way to predict when Kluber's going to toss a klunker, it just happens every once in a while. For example, in his last 14 outings, Kluber has 12 quality starts in which he allowed 56 hits and 15 earned runs in 87.2 innings. However, in the other 2, he allowed 15 hits and 10 earned runs in 8.1 innings. His last klunker was 9 starts ago. There's also no home/away pattern here either, Kluber's thrown 3 clunkers at home and 3 on the road.
Martin Perez is having a very mediocre season for the Rangers. He's only compiled an 8-8 record, but with 15 quality starts in his 26 outings (57.7%), including 3 of his last 6. He also missed another quality start by just 1 out 3, starts ago. However Perez also has 9 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs (34.6%), and 6 in which he's allowed 5 or more, including his last one. With Perez, it's either feast or famine. He either throws a quality start or he gets bombed. He has been better at home, posting a 7-1 record with a 1.25 WHIP, a 2.36 ERA, and 12 quality starts and the 1 near miss in his 13 home outings.
Edge - CLEV
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Indians
|
1.28
|
3.53
|
3.74
|
3.93
|
19
|
17
|
27
|
11
|
71.1%
|
75.40%
|
0.235
|
0.289
|
Rangers
|
1.41
|
4.78
|
4.03
|
4.26
|
30
|
19
|
43
|
15
|
74.1%
|
71.60%
|
0.269
|
0.307
|
Edge - CLEV
The TEX pen is probably undervalued, as the acqusition of Jeffress has made it better, but CLEV also improved by acquiring Miller. CLEV is still better.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
56.5
|
2
|
|
107
|
2
|
|
0.331
|
4
|
|
24
|
3
|
Rangers
|
-31.2
|
19
|
|
94
|
19
|
|
0.322
|
12
|
|
13.9
|
15
|
Edge CLEV
Tex definitely improved their offense at the break by adding Lucroy and Beltran, but CLEV still has the better offense.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
21.4
|
9
|
Rangers
|
7.8
|
15
|
Edge - CLEV
Bothe teams have good defenses, but CLEV rates higher.
In this game, CLEV has most of the edges, the better bullpen, offense and defense. TEX has improved substantially in all these areas since the trading deadline. In fact, probably, no team has improved more, but CLEV still deserves the edges. They'r ejust not as big as they were before the deadline. CLEV would appear to have a clear edge at starting pitcher with Corey Kluber. However, Martin Perez has been every bit as good, when he's pitching at home in the game. So we'll pass on taking a side.
PICK - 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-110) UNDER 8.5 (-105)
SEA @ CHI WS
Felix Hernandez is not having a typical Felix Hernandez season. He has an 8-4 record, with 10 quality starts in his 17 outings (58.8%) , including his last 3. He also has 5 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs. Since returning from the DL, Hernandez has made 7 starts. His first 4 were quite mediocre, as he allowed 24 hits and 15 earned runs in 25.2 innings, with 19 strikeouts and 11 walks. That's a 1.36 WHIP and a 5.26 ERA. However, in his last 3, he's allowed 14 hits and just 5 earned runs, in 21.2 innings, with 24 strikeouts and 9 walks. That's a 1.06 WHIP and a 2.08 ERA. Over those 7 starts Hernandez's 43:20 K:BB ratio is a little concerning. At the age of 30, Hernandez has seen a serious decline in his velocity. He's not the name-brand pitcher he once was.
Chris Sale is having a Cy Young type season for the White Sox. He's 15-6, with 17 quality starts in his 24 outings (66.7%), including 5 of his last 6. He has allowed more than 3 runs just 7 times this season (29.2%). He has also fanned 165, while only walking 38 in his 168.2 innings. Unfortunately for Sale, the inept White Sox offense only scored 1 run in 2 of his losses, a the dreadful White Sox bullpen blew a 4-3 in another. With any luck, Sale could easily be 18-6.
Edge - CHI
Bullpen
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mariners
|
1.23
|
3.63
|
3.38
|
3.82
|
20
|
21
|
40
|
21
|
65.6%
|
77.90%
|
0.229
|
0.286
|
White Sox
|
1.44
|
3.72
|
4.18
|
4.36
|
21
|
17
|
37
|
24
|
60.7%
|
75.60%
|
0.249
|
0.307
|
Edge - SEA
Offense
Edge - SEA
PICK - CHI WS ML 1st 5 (-140) , ML SEA (+135) UNDER 4 1st 5 (-125)