BOSTON RED SOX +105
I have been seeing the Sox games well lately, and, believe it or not, have won every game they played since the start of the Detroit series, hoping not to jinx myself when I share one here...
Anyone who has watched the Sox may have seen the recent resurgence of Clay Buchholz as he fills in for Steven Wright. In his 2 spot starts he has compiled 10 1/3 IP allowing 4 ER, just one in his last start Thursday in Detroit over 6 innings. Unfortunately, Clay has nothing to show for it in the win column but he has actually looked a bit like his old self. He seems to have simplified his approach, throwing from the stretch, and sticking mainly to fastballs and moving the ball around. Its not like he has a tough offense to face today, and this could be his last shot before Wright returns to prove he still belongs as a major league starter since he will probably be sent packing this off season. On the other side, we have Chris Archer, who could infamously become the first 20 game loser in quite awhile. Obviously he is not all to blame, but it has been an up and down year for Archer. He actually has been much better at home, and just shut out the Padres over 7 and a third, but this isn't the Padres he is facing tonight. And Archer may just have nightmares of Red Sox dangling over him when he sleeps, as he has never had much success facing Boston. Actually, this year in 3 starts, Archer has surrendered 22 hits and 15 ER over just 16 2/3 IP. That's almost a run an inning! And this isn't just a 2016 thing as Archer had previously been winless against Boston with an 0-6 record and 5.12 ERA in 10 starts prior to this year. Bottom line, Boston is the much better team, and regardless of how much better of a pitcher Archer really is, Buchholz performs better against the team he is facing than Chris does. Buchholz has held the Rays to a 2.36 ERA in his last 6 starts against them including a 0.45 ERA at the Trop in his previous 3.