For what it's worth, yesterday turned out to be mediocre. Our consecutive days winning streak ended at 3, as we finished 2-2-1 on our posted plays. That brings our August posted plays to 116-90-7.
We didn't end up on many games, but the ones we did play were definitely a mixed bag.
PITT 1st 5 and ML L - L Taillon threw another quality start (8 IP. 4 H. 2 ER, 8 Ks1 BB), but so did Fister (7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 6 Ks, 1 BB).
CLEV - 1st 5 and ML P - W Carrasco was great with 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER and 9 Ks, but Triggs was almost as good with 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER and 6 Ks. CLEV got 1 late off the OAK pen for the W
CHI CUBS - RL W Another strong outing for Lester as Cubs roll
On to today's games
HTN @ PITT
Joe Musgrove has now made 4 starts for the Astros, and he is coming off his first bad one. However he has still impressed. He's 1-1, with 2 quality starts in his 4 outings. In his first start, he only pitched 4.1 innings v TOR, but allowed just 1 hit and 0 runs, with 8 strikeouts and 1 walk. In his last start at BALT, he got lit up for 11 hits (including 3 HRS), and 8 earned runs, with 2 strikeouts and 1 walk. In the 2 quality starts, he went 7 full innings v TEX, allowing just 5 hits and just 1 run, with 6 strikeouts and 0 walks, and at TOR, he again went 7 full innings, allowing 6 hits and 2 runs, with 7 strikeouts and 1 walk. Overall that's 23 hits and 11 earned runs in 23.2 innings with 23 strikeouts and just 3 walks. That's still not too shabby.
Ivsan Nova is a mediocre pitcher having a mediocre season. He has a 9-6 record, but with just 5 quality starts in his 18 outings as a starter (27.8%). He did miss a 6th by just one out. However, Nova has also allowed a t least 4 earned runs in 9 of his starts (50%), and that's troubling. Since joining PITT at the trade deadline, Nova is 2-0 in 3 starts, but has allowed 21 hits, and 8 earned runs, in 16.1 innings, with 1 quality start. Those aren't very good numbers, but Nova has been able to limit the damage because he didn't walked anyone in those 3 starts. That still translates to a very mediocre 1.29 WHIP and a 4.41 ERA, and his season walk rate (2.17/9) tells me that his WHIP and ERA could easily rise.
Edge - HTN slight
It's a small sample size for Musgrove, but he does have an upside, which is more than I can say for Nova.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Astros
|
1.12
|
3.40
|
2.95
|
3.26
|
20
|
14
|
32
|
16
|
66.7%
|
76.60%
|
0.233
|
0.296
|
Pirates
|
1.33
|
3.46
|
4.08
|
4.34
|
20
|
14
|
41
|
14
|
74.5%
|
76.80%
|
0.246
|
0.294
|
HTN has one of the best bullpens in baseball. Their metrics are over a run lower than PITT's.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Astros
|
-22.8
|
17
|
|
98
|
14
|
|
0.319
|
14
|
|
15.4
|
12
|
Pirates
|
-5.6
|
13
|
|
99
|
11
|
|
0.319
|
14
|
|
14.7
|
14
|
Edge - NONE
The numbers would seem to lean a little toward PITT, but HTN actually hits righties a little better (rank # 13) than PITT does (rank #18)
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Astros
|
4.3
|
16
|
Pirates
|
3.9
|
18
|
Edge - HTN slight
Last night, I lost with PITT, even though IMO PITT had the better starting pitcher. Taillon pitched great, but so did Doug Fister.However, in this games PITT really doesn't have any real edge at all. Both the offenses and defenses are very close, so there's no discernible edge to be found there. In the bullpens, HTN has a clear edge, with one of the best bullpens in baseball. So it comes down to the two starting pitchers. Joe Musgrove is coming off a really bad outing at BALT, that took some luster of his star, but his 3 previous outing were very impressive, and he has lots of pside. As for Ivan Nova, he is what he always has been, and that is very mediocre. He capable of a good outing from time to time, but not consistently. He has more bad starts (8) than quality starts (5), and I don't expect that to change. I'll overlook Musgrove's bad outing and give the kid another shot.
PICK - HTN ML 1st 5 Innings (-118) and ML (-113)
COL @ MIL
Jon Gray was having a solid season for COL, until about 3 starts ago. He's still 8-6, with 13 quality starts in his 22 outings (59.1%), including 6 of his last 9. However he also has 8 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs, including his last 3. Until then, he'd been mostly very good. He started his season with 2 shaky outings, in which he allowed 16 hits and 11 earned runs in just 8.2 innings. However, over his next 17 starts, he posted an 8-4 record, with a 1.04 WHIP, a 3.14 ERA and 13 quality starts in his 106 innings. He's also fanned 114 while walking 34 during that stretch. Three starts ago that all changed. In those 3 starts, Gray posted an 0-2 record, allowing 22 hits and 18 earned runs over 12 innings, with 12 strikeouts and 6 walks. Gray failed to reach the 5th inning in any of them, and the only real positive is that he's allowed fewer runs each time, 8, 6, and only 4 in his last one. Has Gray hit the proverbial wall that young pitchers sometimes hit as their innings rack up? He's totaled 126.2 innings to date. Or is this just a temporary funk that he'll pull out of?
We may not know for sure about Jon Gray. but we do know about Chase Anderson . His first season in MIL has been pretty much a total disaster. He's lucky to be 7-10, considering that he only has 5 quality starts in his 23 outings as a starter (21.7%), and in 7 of his starts he's allowed at least 4 earned runs (30.4%). Anderson was pitching a little better since the beginning of July before suffering a quad injury earlier this month, but not good. During that stretch he posted a 3-2 record, a 1.71 WHIP, a 3.96 ERA and 1 quality start in his 9 outings (36.1 innings). Frankly, Anderson has been very lucky. With a 1.71 WHIP (38 hits and 24 walks in 36.1 innings) his ERA should be a lot higher. The Brewers are pulling him at the first sign of trouble. He's gone 6 innings just once, and 4 or less innings 5 times, and he's averaging just over 4 innings during that 9 start stretch.
Edge - COL
Even with his rough stretch, Gray's numbers are still much better. His metrics are a full run better.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rockies
|
1.42
|
4.79
|
3.99
|
4.28
|
17
|
21
|
31
|
19
|
62.0%
|
68.80%
|
0.266
|
0.315
|
Brewers
|
1.40
|
3.88
|
4.02
|
4.34
|
15
|
18
|
35
|
14
|
71.4%
|
76.00%
|
0.256
|
0.307
|
Edge - NONE
Neither of these bullpens is very good, but they are very evenly matched. It would appear that MIL might have a small edge, but MIL traded it's closer, Jeffress, to TEX at the trade deadline, weakening their pen.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
-43
|
21
|
|
93
|
20
|
|
0.340
|
2
|
|
13
|
18
|
Brewers
|
-51.6
|
23
|
|
89
|
23
|
|
0.316
|
19
|
|
8.9
|
26
|
Edge - NONE
It may look like COL has s small edge, but COL hits much better at Coors, which means that their overall numbers are low for COL at home, and high for COL on the road. Further, MIL hits righties slightly better (rank #17) than COL (rank #20). Si I'll call them even.
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
23.7
|
8
|
Brewers
|
-6.2
|
21
|
Edge - COL
COL is clearly the better defensive team.
This game is definitely not a "no brainer". It's close. The two bullpens and the two offense are both very evenly matched. COL does have the better defense. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Jon Gray's numbers are clearly better, but he's in the midst of a 3 start funk. That makes betting on Gray a somewhat iffy proposition. However, that being said, Chase Anderson's been in a season long funk, and that sows no signs of changing any time soon. The only reason that he's been slightly better recently, is that he's getting a real quick hook at the first sign of trouble. Even so, that 1.71 WHIP over his last 9 starts, should set off all sorts of alarms. Add to that, the fact that Anderson hasn't pitched since August 19. because of that quad injury, and I see absolutely no reason to believe than Anderson pitches well here. So we'll look for a bounce back from Gray, as a small favorite. Even if Gray falters again, COL will get to Anderson so it'll still be close, and if Gray returns to form it should be an easy win
PICK - COL ML 1st 5 Innings (-125) and ML (+119)
KC @ MIA
Yordano Ventura has had a roller coaster season for the suddenly surging Royals. He just 8-9, with 14 quality starts in his 24 outings (58.3%), including his last 3, 4 of his last 5 and 6 of his last 8. He also has 6 starts in which he's allowed 4 or more earned runs (25%), but none since the end of June. Since July, Ventura has really turned it around. Between April and June, Ventura posted a 1.45 WHIP, a 5.00 ERA, and 7 quality starts in his 15 outings. Since July 1, Ventura has posted a 1.15 WHIP, a 3.62 ERA and 7 quality starts in his 9 outings. Now that's a significant turnaround.
Andrew Cashner was not having a good season when the Padres traded him, and it hasn't gotten any better in MIA. He's just 4-9, with 9 quality starts in his 20 outings as a starter (45%), and just 1 since being traded to MIA. He also had 2 outings in which he missed a quality start by just 1 out. Cashner also had 4 outings in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs (20%), but 2 of them have occurred since being traded to MIA at the trade deadline. Cashner has, surprisingly, taken a step back with his new team. He was actuallu pitching pretty well in his last few outings with SD. However, since being acquired by the Marlins in late July, he is 0-2 with a 1.76 WHIP, a 5.57 ERA and just 1quality start in his 4 outings, while allowing 4 earned runs in one, and 7 in another. His 80:40 K:BB rate also leaves a lot to be desired. When we couple the 40 walks with the 107 hits that Cashner has allowed, that's 147 base runners in just over 100 innings. That's asking for trouble.
Edge - KC
Ventura's no prize, but his numbers are a little better than Cashner's, and a lot better since the AS break.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Royals
|
1.22
|
3.19
|
3.61
|
3.91
|
23
|
13
|
30
|
12
|
71.4%
|
79.40%
|
0.234
|
0.288
|
Marlins
|
1.34
|
3.64
|
3.92
|
4.20
|
25
|
22
|
45
|
24
|
65.2%
|
75.40%
|
0.230
|
0.295
|
Edge - KC
This one's not close. The Royals have the much better bullpen.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Royals
|
-75.5
|
27
|
|
88
|
27
|
|
0.306
|
25
|
|
10.1
|
23
|
Marlins
|
-29.2
|
18
|
|
95
|
17
|
|
0.319
|
14
|
|
17.8
|
8
|
Edge - MIA
This one's pretty clear as well. MIA is the much better offensive team, but they did lose Stanton for the rest of the season and that's big.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Royals
|
19.2
|
11
|
Marlins
|
50.2
|
4
|
Edge - NONE
These numbers say MIA is a little better, but close. I've seen other numbers going the opposite way.
In this game, MIA's big edge is the much better offense. However KC has the much better bullpen, so it all comes down to the two starting pitchers. I can't say that I really like or trust either one. Cashner's been a huge disappointment since arriving in MIA, and he still puts too many men on base. In the past I've described Ventura as a headhunter/head case. He appears to have gotten his act together. He hasn't thown at anyone, or gotten himself tossed for quite a while, so maybe he's grown up some. Ventura is still very talented and still has the 95+ heater. He appears to be back on track and the Royals are hot. Cashner's still searching, and MIA's struggling without Stanton in the middle of that lineup. I'tt take with the team that's hot, with the better pen as opposed to the better offense, that's missing it's biggest piece.
PICK - KC ML (-104)
NYY @ SEA
CC Sabathia was having a better season than I expected early on. I was very surprised, but I really didn't expect it to last, and it didn't. Sabathia is 7-10, with 10 quality starts in his 22 outings (45.5%). He also missed an 11th by just 1 out. Honestly, that's much more than I expected from him. He's allowed 4 or more earned runs 8 times (36.4%, but those 8 are all in his last 11 starts, in which he's allowed 77 hits and 49 earned runs in 65 innings. That translates to a 1.55 WHIP and a 6.78 ERA over his last 11 starts. Sabathia doesn't go very deep in his games anymore, either. He's averaging under 6 innings per start, but with what was (before the Chapman and Miller trades) a formidable Yankees bullpen, that wasn't such a problem. Sabathia's K/9 rate (7.6) is well below where he's been the last couple of years, his BB/9 (3.52) is at a career high, and his average fastball velocity is now at 88.8 mph, down from the 90.3 of even last season.
Taijuan Walker is having strange season for the Mariners. He's only 4-7, with 7 quality starts in his 17 outings (41.2%). He started the season with 4 straight quality starts. It looked like he was on his way to a very good season. However, it all went south after that. Walker produced a 2-7 record, a 1.28 WHI{P, a 5.12 ERA, and just 3 quality starts in his next 13 outings. He also allowed at least 4 earned runs in 5 of those starts. He was then sent to Tacoma in late July, partly for an attitude adjustment. He made 3 starts with Triple-A Tacoma, and tossed 6.1 scoreless innings his last start. Walker has the talent and has shown flashes, but he's never put it all together over an extended period of time.
Edge - SEA
Walker hasn't been very good, bu the numbers say he's been better than Sabathia.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Yankees
|
1.13
|
3.54
|
3.05
|
3.44
|
23
|
13
|
36
|
10
|
78.3%
|
76.30%
|
0.217
|
0.281
|
Mariners
|
1.22
|
3.66
|
3.37
|
3.82
|
20
|
20
|
40
|
20
|
66.7%
|
78.70%
|
0.229
|
0.285
|
Edge - NYY
The numbers all lean NY, but without Miller and Chapman, they aren't nearly as good as thew were.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Yankees
|
-55.5
|
24
|
|
89
|
23
|
|
0.308
|
22
|
|
9.2
|
24
|
Mariners
|
18.6
|
5
|
|
107
|
2
|
|
0.326
|
8
|
|
15
|
13
|
Edge - SEA
SEA has the much better offense.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Yankees
|
-12.7
|
23
|
Mariners
|
-33.1
|
28
|
Edge - NYY slight
Both defenses are bad, SEA's just a little worse.
In this game NY's only real edge is in the bullpen, and even that edge is not as big as it was before t\NY traded Chapman and Miller. SEA gets a big edge on offense. So it comes down to the two starting pitchers. I can't say that I really trust either Sabathia or Walker very far. But when in doubt, I'll always fade Sabathia. Thre's an upside with Walker, but none with Sabathia.
PICK - SEA ML 1st 5 (-130) and SEA ML (-129)
CHI Cubs @ SD
Starting Pitchers
Edge - CHI - BIG
Arrieta may not be as good as lst year, but he's much better than Friedrich
Bullpens
Cubs
|
1.25
|
3.71
|
3.68
|
3.91
|
15
|
15
|
26
|
13
|
66.7%
|
75.00%
|
0.216
|
0.267
|
Padres
|
1.35
|
4.46
|
4.02
|
4.41
|
20
|
14
|
25
|
14
|
64.1%
|
70.60%
|
0.241
|
0.292
|
Edge - CHI big
Cubs are better across the board
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
47
|
3
|
|
106
|
4
|
|
0.335
|
3
|
|
28.2
|
1
|
Padres
|
-42.3
|
20
|
|
89
|
23
|
|
0.302
|
28
|
|
10.9
|
22
|
Edge - CHI
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
79.3
|
1
|
Padres
|
3.8
|
19
|
Edge - CHI
The Cubs have every edge
PICK - CHI Cubs RL (-145)
SF @ LAD
Starting Pitchers
Edge - SF
What edges there are belong to SF
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Giants
|
1.29
|
3.81
|
3.86
|
4.08
|
22
|
17
|
34
|
21
|
61.8%
|
73.90%
|
0.247
|
0.295
|
Dodgers
|
1.13
|
3.30
|
3.50
|
3.94
|
24
|
16
|
35
|
18
|
66.0%
|
76.30%
|
0.212
|
0.264
|
Edge - LAD
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Giants
|
11.5
|
7
|
|
102
|
7
|
|
0.318
|
17
|
|
23.2
|
4
|
Dodgers
|
-14.8
|
15
|
|
98
|
14
|
|
0.317
|
18
|
|
18.7
|
7
|
Edge SF
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Giants
|
62.4
|
2
|
Dodgers
|
50.7
|
3
|
Edge - SF Slight
Both team have excellent defenses
In This game LA has the better bullpen, SF has the better offense and the slightly bettr defense. Tough call on these 2 starters, but I'll take Bumgarner in a big game.
Picsk - SF ML 1st 5 Innings (-110) and ML (-105)