For what it's worth, we were bailed out big time, by the 10 PM games, and finished 9-5 on our posted plays. Funny things is, it was late and we'd had a little too much to drink, so we gave very abbreviated write ups. Fortunately, those games were very clear to us, so we still managed it.
Both WASH and BOS covered the 1st 5, the ML and the RL. the LAD also gave us a RL cover. That was 7 of our 9 Ws.
In the early games the NYM/COL (UNDER 8) and the CHI WS 1st 5 gave us our two other Ws.
We lost with BALLT/TOR (Under 9), HTN (1st 5 and ML), and PHIL (1first 5 and ML)
On to today.
BALT @ TOR
Amazingly (at least to me) Yovani Gallardo is 3-2 even though he has just 2 quality start in his 12 outings, and he's allowed at least 4 earned runs 5 times. Since his return from the DL, Gallardo does have a 2-1 record, but he's compiled a 1.61 WHIP and a 4.70 ERA with just 2 quality starts in his 8 outings. He's lost whatever semblance of control he once had, as he's walked 3 or more in 43 straight starts and has now issued multiple walks in 8 straight starts. He owns a brutal 43:33 K:BB over 62 innings, and he's allowed at least 3 runs in 10 of his 12 starts, and 4 or more in 5.
J.A. Happ appears to be on his way to a career season for the Blue Jays. He's 13-3, with 132 quality starts in his 20 outings. He missed a 14th and 15th by just 1 out in 2 other starts. Happ has cruised through his last 4 outings, scattering 17 hits with just 4 earned run in 24.1 innings. He also fanned 31 while only walking 6. Amazingly, Happ has already exceeded his career high for wins in a full season. Happ's ERA and WHIP are both well under his career averages of 4.06 and 1.35, respectively and he's on pace to win 20-plus games and pitch nearly 200 innings. Although those numbers might seem ridiculous considering his history of mediocrity, there is reason for optimism. Over his 9 year career, Happ has performed much better in the second half of seasons.
The numbers all favor Happ by a wide margin. His metrics aren't great but they're over a full run better than Gallardo's.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Orioles
|
1.28
|
2.99
|
3.90
|
4.13
|
25
|
8
|
36
|
12
|
75.0%
|
79.50%
|
0.235
|
0.287
|
Blue Jays
|
1.27
|
4.10
|
3.50
|
4.01
|
12
|
21
|
27
|
13
|
67.5%
|
73.80%
|
0.252
|
0.303
|
Neither of these two bullpens is great, but they are pretty evenly matched. TOR has the better metrics, but BALT has the much better W-L record and somewhat better save and strand rate.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
24.4
|
4
|
|
104
|
6
|
|
0.332
|
4
|
|
14.4
|
10
|
Blue Jays
|
16
|
7
|
|
104
|
6
|
|
0.331
|
5
|
|
17.7
|
4
|
As with the bullpens, these offense are very evenly matched. Both are potent and capable, as they showed last night. TOR hits righties a little better (rank #6), than BALT hits lefties (rank #10)
Defense
Orioles
|
-12.9
|
24
|
Blue Jays
|
23.2
|
7
|
TOR is the much better defensive team.
Last night we expected a pitcher's duel with Gausman and Estrada, but that didn't happen, it was 3-2 TOR, after just 1 inning. TOR trails BALT by 1/2 a game in the AL East. So both teams will be motivated. The bullpens and offenses are very even, and TOR holds a strong defensive edge. The big difference here is the two starting pitchers. I'm not completely sold on Happ, especially when I look at his metrics, but I must admit, that he's pitching very well, and he's much better than Gallardo. I may be biased, but I think Gallardo's just another name for garbage, and the fact that he's still in the Orioles rotation, along with Ubaldo Jimenez tells me the Jays and Red Sox will probably catch and pass BALT in the standings. I'm all in on TOR in this game.
PICK - TOR ML 1st 5 innings (-175) TOR ML (-170) and TOR RL (+111)
SEA @ CHI CUBS
Wade Miley is having a very mediocre season for the Mariners. He has a 6-8 record, with 7 quality starts in his 18 outings and 9 starts in which he's allowed more than 4 earned runs. Miley has tossed 3 quality start in 4 July outings, so it's not all bad, but his ERA for the month is still a pedestrian 4.07. He doesn't strike out may batters (73 Ks in 105 IP), and he in hasn't struck out more than four batters since June 12. He doesn't miss many bats (116 H) and coupled with his 33 walks, he's allowed 149 base runner in 105 innings.
What is wrong with Jake Arrieta? He now has 4 subpar outings in his last 5 starts. In each of those 4 outings he allowed 4 or more runs. During that 5 start stretch, he's 1-2, and has given up 31 hits and 20 earned runs in 29.1 innings, with 28 strikeouts and 11 walks. That translates to a 1.43 WHIP and a 5.14 ERA. Arrieta has spoiled us over the last couple of years, but this season, control and pitch count have been his big problems. He's walked 24 in his last 59.1 innings after walking just 21 in his first 68 innings. Of course, Arrieta still has a 12-4 record, with 11 quality starts in his 20 outings, and he's still allowed more than 3 earned runs just 5 times this eason, so we're not talking disaster here. .However 4 of those happened to be 4 of his last 5 starts.
Arrieta has struggled lately but his numbers are still much better than Miley's. His metrics are over a full run better.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mariners
|
1.22
|
3.60
|
3.29
|
3.73
|
14
|
15
|
27
|
16
|
62.8%
|
79.40%
|
0.225
|
0.282
|
Cubs
|
1.21
|
3.77
|
3.71
|
4.01
|
12
|
13
|
20
|
10
|
66.7%
|
74.20%
|
0.209
|
0.255
|
The numbers say that these 2 bullpens are very even. However, the numbers don't reflect the full impact of the Chapman acquisition by CHI. He's already saved 2 games in the Cubs' last 4.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Mariners
|
22.3
|
5
|
|
109
|
2
|
|
0.329
|
7
|
|
12.3
|
14
|
Cubs
|
37.6
|
2
|
|
107
|
3
|
|
0.334
|
2
|
|
23.7
|
1
|
Both of these teams are very good offensively. The Cubs rank slightly higher in most categories.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Mariners
|
-31.8
|
28
|
Cubs
|
67.8
|
1
|
The Cubs have the much better defense.
In this game, the Cubs have most of the edges. With Chapman, I think the Cubs have the better bullpen, and the Cubs definitely have the better defensive team. The offenses are close. To me, this game comes down to Jake Arrieta v Wade Miley. Arrieta has not been good for 4 of his last 5 starts, and that's troubling. However, Miley hasn't been very good, period. If this game becomes a battle of two slugging offenses, it could be close. Additionally, the CHI ML is quite expensive (-220), which means if you like CHI, your best shot might be the RL. IMO, part of Arrieta's problem has been the Cubs recent general slump. I think the Chapman acquisition has energized this team. I thought so yesterday too, but , like Arrieta, Lester was also struggling, so I passed. That was a mistake, Lester and the Cubs both rebounded big time, and I expect more of the same today from Arrieta.
PICK - CHI CUBS RL (-102)
PITT @ MIL
Heralded rookie Jameson Taillon has started 7 games for the Pirates. He's 2-1, with 5 quality starts, including his last 3. He hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in any of his starts, and has an excellent 31:5 BB:K. Taillon has also pitched quite well on the road, posting a 2-1 record with a 1.00 WHIP and a 2.50 ERA.
Chase Anderson is not having a good season for the Brewers. He's 5-10, with just 4 quality starts in his 19 outings. He also has 7 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs. Anderson has allowed more hits (102) than innings pitched (95), and when coupled with his 36 walks, means 138 base runners in his 95 innings. He has walked at least 2 batters in 6 of his last 7 starts. Anderson also doesn't go very deep, and is averaging just 5 innings per start.
Taillon has the much better numbers. His metric are more than a full run better than Anderson's.
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Pirates
|
1.32
|
3.57
|
4.10
|
4.37
|
17
|
12
|
34
|
12
|
73.9%
|
76.60%
|
0.246
|
0.293
|
Brewers
|
1.43
|
3.85
|
3.95
|
4.22
|
14
|
15
|
29
|
14
|
67.4%
|
77.50%
|
0.260
|
0.317
|
These two bullpens appear to be very close. MIL has slightly better metrics, but PITT has the better W-L record and save %.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Pirates
|
12.8
|
9
|
|
103
|
8
|
|
0.322
|
10
|
|
14.4
|
10
|
Brewers
|
-50.9
|
23
|
|
88
|
26
|
|
0.311
|
19
|
|
6.2
|
26
|
PITT has a big edge here with the much better offense.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Pirates
|
4
|
17
|
Brewers
|
-6.6
|
22
|
Neither of these teams is very good defensively, but MIL in the sorst of the two.
In this game, PITT holds most of the edges. PITT has the much better offense and the better defense. The bullpens are close, but PITT gets another significant edge at starting pitcher. In his limited time in the bigs, Taillon has looked much better than Anderson. I fully expect PITT to tee off on Anderson, and I expect Taillon, who MIL has not seen before to keep a mediocre MIL offense in check. I'm all in on Taillon and PITT
PICK - PITT ML 1st 5 innings (-145) and PITT ML (-141) and PITT RL (+115)
OAK @ CLEV
Dillon Overton hasn't been very good in his 3 starts for the As. He's 1-1 and has 1 quality start, and 1 near quality start (5.2 IP, 3 ER). However that may be deceptive. First, in the quality start, his most recent one, he allowed 9 hits, but only 3 earned runs, in 6.1 innings. In the near quality start, he allowed 7 hits and 3 earned runs in 5.2 innings. In total, Overton has allowed 24 hits, including 6 HRs, and 14 earned runs in his 15 innings. He's also walked another 5. That's 29 base runners in 15 innings and explains his shy high 1.93 WHIP. I'd say he's been very lucky. On the plus side, ha has fanned 10.
Josh Tomlin is having a very good season for the Indians. He's 10-3, with 12 quality starts in his 18 outings, including 7 of his last 9. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 4 times this season and more than 4 just once. Tomlin allows about a hit per inning (114 h in 113.2 IP) but he rarely walks a batter (12). He is, however, prone to giving up the long ball (24) and has given up 6 in his 4 July starts.
In Overton's case, the sampole size is small, but Tomlin has the better numbers. His metrics are a little high, but over a run and a half better than Overton's.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Athletics
|
1.27
|
4.11
|
3.67
|
4.03
|
19
|
14
|
29
|
14
|
67.4%
|
72.30%
|
0.246
|
0.296
|
Indians
|
1.30
|
3.61
|
3.80
|
4.04
|
15
|
16
|
21
|
10
|
67.7%
|
74.60%
|
0.237
|
0.291
|
Last night, the CLEV pen was the big winner with and win and save, while the OAK pen was charged with a blown save. However, the number say than these two bullpens are very evenly matched.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Athletics
|
-55.1
|
26
|
|
91
|
22
|
|
0.305
|
25
|
|
1.9
|
29
|
Indians
|
21.9
|
6
|
|
102
|
10
|
|
0.324
|
9
|
|
17.5
|
5
|
CLEV has the much better offense, but they don't hit lefties as well (rank #19). OAK does hit righties any better (rank #24).
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Athletics
|
-54.5
|
30
|
Indians
|
19.3
|
9
|
The Indians have a good defense, but the As have the worst defense in the league.
In this game, the Indians have all of the edges. The Bullpens are very even, but CLEV has the much better offense, the much better defense and IMO, the better starting pitcher. I think Overton's been extremely lucky that his numbers aren't much worse than they are. He's given up way too many hits, and I see no reason to believe that will change. I'm not overly fond of Tomlin either because he pitches to contact, but while that makes him hittable, he's nowhere near as hittable as Overton has shown himself to be, and he rarely walks batters, so if you're going to beat him, you need to string together hits. The HRs concern me a little as well. However when combined with CLEV's offensive and defensive superiority, there's only 1 way to go.
PICK - CLEV ML 1st 5 innings (-150), and CLEV ML (-156) and CLEV RL (+126)
HTN @ DET
Mike Fiers is having a solid season for the Astros. He's 7-4. with 8 quality starts in his 18 outings. He missed a 9th by 1 out, as he only went 5.2 innings even though he didn't allow a run. Verlander has now allowed just 6 earned runs in his 5 July starts, spanning 33.2 innings. However, he has also allowed at least 4 earned run in 7 of his starts. There appears to be no rhyme or reason to when Fiers has good or bad outings. In July, for example, Fiers has 2 quality starts in which he allowed 13 hits but only 3 earned runs in 13 innings. However, in his 2 other July starts, he allowed 10 hits and 10 earned runs in just 7 innings. Go figure? Fiers has also been worse on the road. In his 8 road starts, he 1-2, with a 1.70 WHIP and a 6.75 ERA
Justin Verlander is having a very good season for the Tigers. He's 10-6, with 15 quality starts in his 21 outings, including 4 of his last 5 and missing the 5th by a single out despite allowing just 2 runs. He's only allowed more than 3 earned runs 5 times, but in 3 of those, he gave up 7, 7 and 8 runs. Verlander doesn't pitch poorly often, but when he does, he gets lit up. Verlander's 144 strikeouts are already far above his total in a similar number of innings a season ago.
Verlander has the better numbers, pretty much across the board.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Astros
|
1.09
|
2.98
|
2.96
|
3.27
|
18
|
11
|
28
|
13
|
68.3%
|
77.30%
|
0.228
|
0.296
|
Tigers
|
1.36
|
4.31
|
3.82
|
4.06
|
17
|
13
|
32
|
11
|
74.4%
|
71.00%
|
0.264
|
0.316
|
The Tigers are a little above average in the bullpen, but HTN has one of the best bullpens in the majors.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Astros
|
-3.7
|
13
|
|
100
|
12
|
|
0.322
|
10
|
|
13.6
|
12
|
Tigers
|
-2.2
|
11
|
|
102
|
10
|
|
0.326
|
8
|
|
10.6
|
17
|
Both of these offenses are very good, and very evenly matched.
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Astros
|
4.7
|
16
|
Tigers
|
-26.1
|
27
|
HTN has a mediocre defense, but DET is much worse.
In this game, the offenses are very even. HTN has an edge in the bullpen and on defense. The only edge DET has is the better starting pitcher. Here, we will define better as the more consistent starter. Verlander is much more consistent than Fiers, who is pretty much hit or miss. If Fiers is on, this could be close, and that's a 50-50 proposition. However, unless this is one of Verlander's rare blowup, I like his chances, in the 1st five innings, thus eliminating HTN's bullpen edge.
PICK - DET ML 1st 5 innings (-140)
NO DETAILED ANALYSIS - TOO LITTLE TIME & A FEW OF DRINKS
CIN @ SD
I like the way Desclafani's been pitching. The Reds have been hitting a ton. Even the penns been performing. Riding the Reds wave and fading Friedrich.
PICK - CIN ML 1st 5 (-126) and ML (-120) and RL (+145)
BOS @ LAA
Pomerantz is better than he's looked and the Sox O is much better
PICK BOS ML 1st 5 Innings (-125) BOS ML (-117) and BOS RL (+134)
ARZ @ LAD
Kazmir's no great bargain, but Shipley's been a disaster and Kazmir's been pitching well.
PICK - LAD RL (+107)