For what it's worth, we had a good day yesterday, 5-2-1.
We lost with Dodgers as McCarthy wasn't sharp and Moore was, but the game easily stayed under and we split our plays.
We also lost with SF, but it wasn't Bumgarner's fault, as he tossed another quality start, but so did Straily and the CIN bullpen had another good outing. That unit actually has improved to the point where they now have as many saves as blown saves. That may not sound like much, but it's a major improvement.
We also pushed with our COL 1st 5 pick. COL did get to Bundy, as we thought they would, but not until the 6th. 1 inning too late for us. Gray pitched another good game.
Our winners were WASH and STL (1st 5 and full game) and the TB/LAD total, Under.
On to today, where I actually like several games.
COL @ NYM
Rookie Tyler Anderson has now made 8 starts for the Rockies. He's 3-3, but he has posted 5 quality starts, and missed the 6th and 7th by just 1 out in each. He has allowed more than 3 runs just once, and has allowed 2 or less in 5 of his 8 starts. He's gone at least 5.2 innings in all his starts and 6 or more in 6. Anderson also has an excellent 41/10 K/BB rate.
Jacob deGrom is only 6-5, but he has 12 quality starts in his 17 outings, and missed a 13th by just a single out. He's allowed more than 3 runs just twice all season. However, 1 of those 2 was his last outing, in which he allowed a season high 5 runs on another season high 10 hits in just 3.2 innings during a loss to the Marlins. He needed 94 pitches to record 11 outs. DeGrom, after dealing with decreased velocity during the first part the season, has regained the velocity on his fastball over the past several weeks. He's fanned at least 6 in 9 of his last 10 starts. That's at total of 73 strikeouts in just 60.2 innings.
This is a very close matchup. To the extent that there are edges, they lean to deGrom, but make no mistake, this is close.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rockies
|
1.40
|
4.83
|
3.95
|
4.20
|
12
|
15
|
28
|
13
|
68.3%
|
68.60%
|
0.266
|
0.312
|
Mets
|
1.20
|
3.09
|
3.54
|
3.93
|
16
|
12
|
37
|
7
|
84.1%
|
79.30%
|
0.221
|
0.279
|
This is not close, the Mets have one of the best bullpens in basebal.
Offense
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
-41
|
22
|
|
92
|
21
|
|
0.337
|
2
|
|
10.4
|
17
|
Mets
|
-23.9
|
18
|
|
96
|
14
|
|
0.309
|
23
|
|
9.8
|
18
|
Both offenses are very mediocre.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
22.6
|
7
|
Mets
|
5.7
|
16
|
The Rockies have the better defense.
In this game, the edges are few and mostly very small. The only big edge here is in the bullpen, where the Mets are just much better. The Rockies get a significant edge on defense. The offenses are mediocre and very close. The starting pitchers are both very good. I don't want to bet on the Rockies because I'm leary of good pitchers coming off bad outings like deGrom had, and because of that nasty Mets bullpen. The Mets ML has come down significantly all morning. I was seeing COL +70-180, early, now the best I'm seeing is +149. Nonetheless, I fading the movement and taking a shot on the Mets and IMO the stronger play UNDER
PICK - NYM ML (-153) and UNGER 7 (-125)
ARIZ @ MIL
Robbie Ray isn't having a particularly good season for ARIZ. He's just 5-9 with just 7 quality starts in his 20 outings, including just 1 in his last 6 outings. He's also allowed at least 4 earned runs in 7 of his starts. Ray is striking out over a better an inning (132 Ks in 109.1 IP), but he's also walked 43. When coupled with the 122 hits that he's allowed, that's 165 base runners in just over 109 innings.
Zack Davies is having a pretty good season for the Brewers. He's 7-4, with 9 quality starts in his 17 outings, including his last 3, and 7 of his last 9. He also missed a 10th quality start by just 1 out. After a horrible April, in which he compiled an 0-3 record, with a 2.25 WHIP and an 8.78 ERA, Davies completely turned it around. Since May 1, he's 7-1, with a 1.02 WHIP and 2.84 ERA. He has allowed just 3 runs combined in his last 3 starts (20 IP), and more than 3 earned runs just twice since May, after allowing more than 3 in all 3 of his April starts. Davies is on a serious roll right now.
Most of the numbers lean to Davies, but the metrics lean to Ray by about a half a run. However, I suspect, if we removed Davies' awful April, the metrics would favor Davies too.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Diamondbacks
|
1.47
|
4.62
|
4.20
|
4.51
|
11
|
15
|
22
|
11
|
66.7%
|
70.90%
|
0.263
|
0.316
|
Brewers
|
1.43
|
3.85
|
3.95
|
4.22
|
14
|
15
|
28
|
14
|
66.7%
|
77.50%
|
0.260
|
0.317
|
Neither of the bullpens is really good, but whatever edges that there are, all lean to MIL.
Offense
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Diamondbacks
|
-16.8
|
14
|
|
95
|
16
|
|
0.322
|
11
|
|
11
|
16
|
Brewers
|
-51.8
|
25
|
|
88
|
26
|
|
0.311
|
20
|
|
6.8
|
24
|
This appears reasonably close as well, but ARIZ seems to possess the better offense. However, MIL hits lefties much better (rank #12) that ARIZ hits righties (rank #22). So it's even closer than expected.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Diamondbacks
|
3.6
|
17
|
Brewers
|
2.6
|
18
|
Both teams have weak defenses
In this game we have two fairly evenly matched teams. The Brewers have the better bullpen, but it's close. The Diamondbacks have the better offense, but that edge is even closed than it first appeared, and both teams have lousy defenses. The only real difference thatig edge I see is in the starting pitchers. Davies has been excellent since he put April in his rear view mirror, while Rays has been very inconsistent. He's quite capable of pitching a good game, but can't be relied on to do so. I'll put my money on the hot starter and the better (even if only marginally) bullpen
PICK - MIL ML (-128)
BALT @ MINN
Ubaldo Jimenez is awful. He may well be the worst starter in baseball this season. He has nothing left. He's 5-9, with just 4 quality starts in his 17 outings. He's also got 10 starts in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs, and 8 in which he's allowed 5 or more, including his last 2 (11 ER in 5.2 IP). He's allowed 111 hits and issued 50 walks. That's 161 base runners in just under 82 innings, almost 2 per inning! He has been on paternity leave since his last start on July 8, and yet the Orioles are so desperate for starting pitching that they're giving Jimenez another start.
Kyle Gibson is not having a great season for the Twins. He's only 3-6m with 5 quality starts in his 12 outings, including his last one , and 3 of his last 5. He has also allowed at least 4 earned run 6 times this season.
Gibson's no prize, but he's clearly better than Ubaldo Jimenez.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Orioles
|
1.28
|
2.99
|
3.90
|
4.13
|
25
|
8
|
36
|
12
|
75.0%
|
79.50%
|
0.235
|
0.287
|
Twins
|
1.39
|
4.42
|
3.66
|
4.11
|
16
|
18
|
16
|
12
|
53.6%
|
74.50%
|
0.269
|
0.323
|
Everything leans BALT, except for the metrics, which is strange. We'll still give the Os an edge.
Offense
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
26.6
|
5
|
|
105
|
5
|
|
0.333
|
4
|
|
14
|
10
|
Twins
|
-20.1
|
16
|
|
94
|
19
|
|
0.314
|
18
|
|
7.5
|
23
|
This one's clear. MINN has a very mediocre offense, while BALT have a very good offense.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
-16.1
|
24
|
Twins
|
-34.6
|
29
|
BALT does not have a good defense, but it is still better than MINN.
BALT has most of the edges in this game. They have the better bullpen, the much better offense, and the better defense, even if only by default. However, MINN has one big edge and that is that Ubaldo Jimenez is the starting pitcher for BALT. BALT is also not hitting right now, and is much worse on the road (21-26 v 37-16 at home). Kyle Gibson is, by no means, a sure thing, but he's got a much better chance of providing 5 solid innings than Ubaldo Jimenez. I'm fading Joimenez
PICK - MINN ML 1st 5 innings (-119)
STL @ MIA
Michael Wacha's had a very streaky season for the Cardinals. He's only 5-7, but he's tossed 12 quality starts in his 20 outings. After a rough outing at PITT to open the season, Wacha reeled on 5 consecutive quality starts and his ERA sat at 2.65. That was followed by a 4 start stretch in which Wacha was awful, as he allowed 20 earned runs in just 18 innings and watched his ERA climb to 5.04. Now he's followed that up with 7 quality starts in his last 10 outings, including 6 of his last 8. In 1 of the 2 non quality starts, Wacha allowed just 2 earned runs but only went 5 innings. He's now held opponents to 3 or fewer earned runs in each of his last 8 starts.
Jose Fernandez is having a Cy Young season for the Marlins. He's 12-4, with 13 quality starts in his 19 outings, including his last 3, and 8 of his last 10. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 4 times this season, 2 earned runs or less 14 times and 1 or less 11 times. Fernandez has also struck out 175 while walking just 35 in his 120.2 innings. He now has at least 7 strikeouts in 8 straight starts, and he's only walked more than 2 in a start once during that time. Fernandez has been even better at home, with a 9-1 record, a 0.92 WHIP and a 1.63 ERA. Since 2013, Fernandez is 26-1 at home, with a 1.47 ERA and twice as many strikeouts as innings pitched.
Wacha doesn't have bad numbers, but Fernandez's numbers are elite.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cardinals
|
1.16
|
3.34
|
3.63
|
3.91
|
16
|
13
|
21
|
12
|
63.6%
|
75.40%
|
0.209
|
0.255
|
Marlins
|
1.27
|
3.63
|
3.75
|
4.13
|
20
|
18
|
37
|
16
|
69.8%
|
76.50%
|
0.223
|
0.284
|
Both teams have good bullpens, but based on WHIP, ERA, metrics and BABIP, the Cards have the better pen.
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
30.1
|
3
|
|
108
|
3
|
|
0.333
|
4
|
|
15.6
|
7
|
Marlins
|
-24
|
19
|
|
95
|
17
|
|
0.316
|
16
|
|
14.2
|
8
|
The Marlins are pretty average on offense, while the Cards are much better.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
0.6
|
21
|
Marlins
|
42.3
|
3
|
The Marlins are a very good defensive team, but the Cards are not.
In this game, the Cards have the superior offense, and a small edge in the bullpen as well. However, the Marlins have a better defense and a big edge at starting pitcher. I'm not saying that Wacha's not good, he is. I am saying that Fenandez is at a whole other level, and at home he even way beyond that. I'm not betting against Fernandez at home.
PICK - MIA RL (+101) and UNDER 7 (-110)
KC @ TEX
Yordano Ventura (aka Headhunter/Head Case) is having a very uneven season for the Royals, to say the least. He's 6-8, and has tossed 9 quality starts in his 19 outings. However, he also has 7 outings where he's allowed at least 4 earned runs, and 5 where he's allowed at least 5. Ventura is 0-3 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 4 July starts. He still walks too many (45) and when added to the 105 hits he's allowed, that translates to 150 base runners in just over 106 innings and explains his high 1.41 WHIP. Additionally, just like the rest of the Royals, he's been worse on the road, 2-5, 1.53 WHIP, and a 5.26 ERA.
Cole Hamels is the rock holding the Rangers rotation together. He's 11-2, with 13 quality starts in his 20 outings, including his last 2, and 8 out of his last 10. He's now held opponents to 1 or fewer earned runs in 7 of his last 9 starts, and he's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 4 times all season.
Hamels holds pretyy much every edge, with his metrics being over half a run better than Ventura's.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Royals
|
1.27
|
3.39
|
3.69
|
3.99
|
19
|
9
|
23
|
11
|
67.6%
|
78.70%
|
0.244
|
0.299
|
Rangers
|
1.44
|
4.92
|
4.18
|
4.47
|
23
|
18
|
34
|
11
|
75.6%
|
72.30%
|
0.273
|
0.305
|
The Royals have the much better bullpen.
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Royals
|
-49
|
23
|
|
92
|
21
|
|
0.312
|
19
|
|
9.5
|
21
|
Rangers
|
-20.6
|
17
|
|
94
|
19
|
|
0.323
|
10
|
|
12.9
|
12
|
On Offense, TEX has the edge, but it's a small one because KC hits lefties very well (rank #2), while TEX doesn't hit righties as well (rank #18). Of couse Cole Hamels isn't your ordinary lefty either.
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Royals
|
17.5
|
10
|
Rangers
|
18.7
|
9
|
Bothe teams are good defensively, so there's really no edge here.
In this game, KC has a big edge in the bullpen, and TEX has a big edge in the starting pitcher matchup. The offenses are pretty mediocre and pretty evenly matched, as are the two defenses. So we'll take the bullpens out of the equation. That makes it simple Hamel v Ventura. I'll take Hamels.
PICK - TEX ML 1st 5 Innings (-170)
CHI WS @ CHI Cubs
Chris Sale is having a Cy Young type season for the White Sox. He's 14-3, with 13 quality starts in his 19 outings including 4 of his last 6. He has allowed more than 3 runs just 5 times this season. He has also fanned 129, while only walking 29 in his 133 innings. Sale is coming off his 8 inning, 1 hit, shutout performance at SEA, in which idiot manager Robin Ventura decided to pull him after 100 pitches, only to watch the atrocious White Sox bullpen turn a 3-0 W into a 5-3 L. Sale missed his next start after being suspended by the team for refusing to wear their throwback uniform. This was just Another brilliant decision by the is inept White Sox management.
John Lackey was having a great season, until he hit the skids at the end of June. He had posted 13 quality starts in his first 14 games, missing the 14 by a single out. However, he's tossed just 2 in his next 6 outings. Over that stretch, he's allowed 36 hits, and 26 earned runs in 36.2 innings, with 16 walks and 36 strikeouts. That translates to a 1.432 WHIP and a 6.38 ERA.
Lackey still has decent numbers, even with his recent slide but Sale's a just better.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
White Sox
|
1.48
|
3.77
|
4.11
|
4.26
|
15
|
13
|
28
|
19
|
59.6%
|
75.20%
|
0.254
|
0.316
|
Cubs
|
1.21
|
3.77
|
3.71
|
4.01
|
12
|
13
|
19
|
10
|
65.5%
|
74.20%
|
0.209
|
0.255
|
The Cubs pen hasn't been anything to write home about, but they are still way better, that that blown save machine that best decribes the White Sox bullpen. Now add Chapman to the Cubs and the edge become very big.
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
42.7
|
2
|
|
107
|
4
|
|
0.335
|
3
|
|
23.2
|
1
|
White Sox
|
-49.4
|
24
|
|
90
|
24
|
|
0.309
|
23
|
|
5.8
|
27
|
The Cubs have a big edge here as well.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
61.2
|
1
|
White Sox
|
-20.5
|
25
|
Another huge edge for the Cubs here.
The Cubs have most of the edges in this game, and they'r not small. The White Sox have one thing going for them and that's Chris Sale. If Chris Sale is on, he can certain keep the Cubs in check for 5 innings, but if the game is close late, I fully expect the White Sox to blow it. So as weird as this bet looks.
PICK - CHI WS ML 1st 5 innings (+107) and CHI CUBS ML (-132)
BOS @ LAA
David Price is having a rather uneven season for the Red Sox. He's 9-7, with 13 quality starts in his 21 outings. After a slow start, Price has now tossed 10 quality starts in his last 14 outings, allowing 2 earned runs or less in 7 of them. He missed a 14th quality start by just 1 out. Price is among the AL leaders in strikeouts (145 in 135.2 IP)and has an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio (145/30), but has given up an uncharacteristically high number of homers (16) with an uncharacteristically low strand rate(70.4%).
Jered Weaver doesn't have much left in the tank. Yes, he's tossed 9 quality starts in his 19 outings. He also has 10 starts in which he's allowed 4 or more earned runs. After starting out July with a pair of excellent outings, he's now allowed 12 runs in his last 8 innings over his last 2 starts to raise his ERA to 5.32.
The numbers say it all. Price's metrics are over 2 full runs better.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Red Sox
|
1.28
|
3.84
|
3.59
|
4.12
|
13
|
16
|
24
|
8
|
75.0%
|
73.00%
|
0.234
|
0.298
|
Angels
|
1.31
|
3.83
|
4.16
|
4.51
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
12
|
57.1%
|
75.60%
|
0.253
|
0.289
|
Based on metrics and save rates, BOS has the better bullpen.
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Red Sox
|
94
|
1
|
|
118
|
1
|
|
0.356
|
1
|
|
22.8
|
2
|
Angels
|
-0.2
|
10
|
|
103
|
7
|
|
0.319
|
14
|
|
13.6
|
11
|
The Angels have a good offense, but the Red Sox have a much better offense.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Red Sox
|
-1.6
|
22
|
Angels
|
6.3
|
15
|
Bothe teams have mediocre defenses, but BOS' is a little worse.
The Red Sox have most of the edges here. They have the much better offense, the better bullpen and the much better starting pitcher. Price may not be as consistent as he once was, but he's still much better than Weaver.
PICK - BOS NL (-17) and RL (-115).