2016 MLB Record:
78-71 for +6.59 Units
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#2: Kansas City Royals -109
At these odds this is an auto-play. Duffy is the 17th ranked starter in my database with a slick 3.2 e-ERA, and with a huge advantage with the bullpen behind him. Rangers’ BP is 29th out of 30 in the league. These are the ‘known’ facts. What is ‘unknown’ is how will Darvish perform. Sure the strike-out ability is still there, but control has been an issue (8 BB’s in the last 2 starts). Darvish hasn’t made it through the 6th inning in any of his starts this year, so we can expect to see this terrible Rangers BP for at least 3 and most likely 4 innings. Oh, and did I mention that Duffy is pitching like an ACE this year?
#3: Arizona Diamondbacks +110
It’s not often when a pitcher with an ERA above 4, is predicted by advanced stats to be significantly worse going forward. But that’s exactly that, as Straily’s 5.1 xFIP and 5.0 SIERA are a full run higher. Straily has benefited from a really low 0.240 BABIP so far but that’s not going to last. He is coming off his best start of the year where he allowed 3 hits and 0 runs in 7 innings of work, but typically ‘bad’ pitchers really struggle with consistency. I’ll back a better starter in Bradley and a better Arizona offense in this one.
#4: San Diego Padres +205
Perdomo’s 6.1 ERA is much higher than his 3.6 SIERA, while Roark’s 2.9 ERA is significantly lower than his 3.9 SIERA mark. All in all both are very similar so far this season in terms of their true ability. With Padres’ offense ranking 6th over the last 30-days, and Perdomo never facing this Nats lineup before (unfamiliarity factor), there’s a lot of value in the listed odds.
Good Luck