For what it's worth, yesterday ended up being another good day. We needed SF in the late game to keep our winning streak going, but they came through, and we finished 5-3. Coupled with our 31-17 six day streak, our seven day streak now stands 36-20, We hope we can keep it going for another day.
As we move into July, our posted plays, since the beginning of the season, are 365-264-3 (58%).
Yesterday, In our 1st and 2nd plays, we double dipped on the Yankees and Under the generous total of 9. Our analysis was right on the money. It was a 1-1 game going into the bottom of the 9th, when the Yankees finally pushed across the winning run.
For our 3nd play, we backed the White Sox ML. The Sox who jumped all over the Twins early , and then allowed the Twin to tie the game, finally rallied for a 6-5 W.
For our 4th play, we backed the Under 8 in the LAD / MIL game. We expected both Maeda and Davies to both pitch well. Maeda did, Davies didn't, and the Dodgers scored 8 by themselves and coupled with a late Brewer run, pushed the total over 8.
Our 5th play was on the Indians ML. Dickey was good, but Carrasco was absolutely dominant. The TOR hitters didn't have a chance 3-0 CLEV
Our 6th play was on the Cubs who somehow managed to go 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position and strand 11 basrunners, including men on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out in the 9th. L 3-4.
Our 7th play was on the CARDS who only scored 1 run on Chris Young, in spite of his 6 walks in 4 innings. The Cards also committed 3 errors and allowed 2 stolen bases en route to a 4-2 loss.
Our 8th play was on the Giants and Madison Bumgarner as they scored 6 in the 3rd and 2 more in the 4th, and rolled to a 12-6 W
We do have another regret from yesterday. We liked the NATS and disliked the Reds , but we didn't trust the NATS enough to post or bet them on the RL. Big mistake
On to today's card, as I finalize a pick, I'll post it. Here's our first one.
CIN @ WASH
Anthony DeSclafani has pitched very well for the hapless Reds so far. He's got a 2-0 record, with 3 quality starts in his 4 outings. He's allowed 24 hit but only 7 earned runs in his 23.2 innings. He'as also fanned 15, while walking 7.
Tanner Roark is having a very good season for the Nationals. He has a 7-5 record wit 11 quality starts in his 16 outings, including 3 of his last 4, and 6 of his last 8.
Roark has the better numbers. His metrics, in particular, are almost a full run better than DeSclafani's
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Reds
|
13
|
20
|
13
|
16
|
44.8%
|
68.80%
|
1.62
|
6.04
|
4.67
|
5.15
|
0.267
|
0.294
|
Nationals
|
11
|
10
|
22
|
7
|
75.9%
|
77.90%
|
1.16
|
3.13
|
3.35
|
3.73
|
0.226
|
0.291
|
This is a total mismatch. WASH has one of the best bullpens in baseball. CIN has the absolute worst, by far.
Offenses
Team
|
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Reds
|
Reds
|
-72.5
|
28
|
|
82
|
28
|
|
0.300
|
27
|
|
3.1
|
27
|
Nationals
|
Nationals
|
1.1
|
11
|
|
99
|
13
|
|
0.323
|
12
|
|
13
|
5
|
This is another mismatch. WASH is a well above average offensive team. CIN is one of the worst.
Defense
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Reds
|
8.9
|
15
|
Nationals
|
28.6
|
4
|
WASH is also the better defensive team.
WASH has the vastly superior bullpen, a much better offense and a better defense. Starting pitcher is the only area where CIN is even close, and based on the metrics it's not that close either. Roark is better. Additionally, unless DeSclafani i throws a complete game, the dreadful CIN bullpen will come into play. There's absolutely no reason to back CIN, and many solid reasons to back WASH. I'm always reluctant to make a RL play on WASH. They either score a ton, or don't score. However, that awful CIN bullpen will almost certainly come into play, which means a late inning RL cover is always in play, even if Desclafani pitches well.
PICK - WASH RL (+110) We should have made this bet yesterday. Hope we're not a day late.
LAA @ BOS
Jhoulys Chacin is not having a good year. He's got a 3-6 record, with just 4 quality starts in his 14 outings. Chacin has been especially bad in his most recent starts. In his 5 June starts, he's 1-3 and has allowed 32 hits and 21 earned runs in just 22 innings. He also walked another 17. That's a total of 49 baserunner in 22 innings! His June WHIP was an astronomical 2.23, with an ERA of 8.59.
Steven Wright is having a pretty good season for the Red Sox. He has an 8-5 record, with 12 quality starts in his 15 outings, including 3 in his last 4 outings. The young knuckleballer still walks too many batters, (39), but when you consider that he's only allowed 78 hits, that translates to 117 basrunners in his 103 innings, which is not bad.
Wright's metrics are higher that I'd like, but that's due to his high walk rate. In this matchup, Chacin's walk rate is even worse. Across the board Wright has the better numbers.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Angels
|
12
|
13
|
15
|
10
|
60.0%
|
73.50%
|
1.32
|
4.08
|
4.25
|
4.61
|
0.250
|
0.286
|
Red Sox
|
11
|
13
|
18
|
7
|
72.0%
|
74.70%
|
1.23
|
3.56
|
3.44
|
3.94
|
0.222
|
0.291
|
Here, the BOS bullpen has pretty much every edge.
Offense
Team
|
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Angels
|
Angels
|
-18.6
|
17
|
|
98
|
15
|
|
0.312
|
20
|
|
8.5
|
20
|
Red Sox
|
Red Sox
|
60.3
|
1
|
|
114
|
1
|
|
0.351
|
1
|
|
18.1
|
2
|
The Red Sox have a top rated offense, while the Angels are mediocre at best.
Defense
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Angels
|
0.2
|
19
|
Red Sox
|
11.3
|
12
|
The Red Sox are the better defensive team as well. It's closer, but still clear.
The Red Sox have the better bullpen, the better offense and even the better defense. They also have the much better starting pitcher. I don't like betting either on or against knucleballers. They're too damn inconsistent. However, if you look over Wright's game log, he's been very consistent this season. His metrics are higher than I would like, but that's primarily due to his high walk rate and he compensates for that by not allowing a lot of hits. By comparison, Chacin's walk rate is even higher than Wright's, and Chacin has been absolutely terrible. This pick is as much a fade of Chacin and the Angels as it is betting on Wrighn and the Red Sox. I don't like betting RLs, but BOS has every edge, and by a wide margin.
PICK - BOS RL (-115)
MIA @ ATL
Justin Nicolino got off to a dreadful start with the Marlins. He had a 2-4 record, with just 2 quality starts in his 10 outings, before being optioned back to Triple-A in late June. In 5 of his starts, he allowed at least 4 earned runs. In his last seven starts, he allowed 56 hits and 26 earned runs in just 36.1 innings and failed to make it beyond 5.2 innings in any of them. He had a 1.76 WHIP and a 6.44 ERA during that stretch.
You wouldn't know in from his 3-7 record, but Julio Teheran is pitching exceedingly well for the Braves. He's thrown 10 quality starts in his 16 outings, and missed an 111th by 1 out. Teheran hasn't allowed more than 3 in his last 13 starts, and just twice all season. He has now thrown 17 shutout innings over his last two starts to lower his WHIP to 0.89 and his ERA to 2.46.
This is a total mismatch.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Marlins
|
14
|
15
|
29
|
13
|
69.0%
|
75.90%
|
1.35
|
3.85
|
3.89
|
4.26
|
0.236
|
0.298
|
Braves
|
12
|
18
|
15
|
10
|
60.0%
|
71.30%
|
1.45
|
4.26
|
4.00
|
4.24
|
0.249
|
0.318
|
Neither bullpen is particularly good, but they are very close and evenly matched. We'll give MIA a slight edged based on their better Save and Strand rates.
Offenses
Team
|
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Marlins
|
Marlins
|
-16.4
|
15
|
|
96
|
17
|
|
0.318
|
16
|
|
11.6
|
10
|
Braves
|
Braves
|
-101
|
30
|
|
72
|
30
|
|
0.281
|
30
|
|
1.1
|
29
|
The Marlins have a very mediocre offense. That still makes them much better much better than the Braves 30th ranked unit.
Defenses
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Marlins
|
33.3
|
3
|
Braves
|
16.4
|
9
|
Both of these teams are good defensively, but the Marlins are a little better.
In this game, The Marlin's one big edge is a much better offense, and their biggest weakness in a god awful starting pitcher. The Braves are the exact opposite, with an excellent starting pitcher and a god awful offense. The Bullpens and defenses are both close. It's the same old story, and I believe that good pitching trumps good hitting, So, I'm fading Nicolino and backing Tehran as a small fav
PICK - ATL ML (-113)
SF @ ARIZ
Johnny Cueto is having a superb season for SF. He sports an 11-1 record. with 13 quality starts in his 16 outings. In a rare bad outing, Cueto was roughed up for 6 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks over 6 innings in his last start versus the Phillies. He has now allowed 6 runs on 3 separate occasions this season, but never in back to back outings. Cueto has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 11 of his 12 other starts, including 9 straight prior to his last start.
Shelby Miller is suffering through an awful season so far. He has a 2-7 record, with just 2 quality starts in his 12 outings. He did miss 2 more by a single out. However he also has 5 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs, and 4 in which he allowed at least 5. He allowed 7 on 11 hits in his last outing. Miller has also yielded at least 1 homer in 5 of his last 6 starts.
This is a total mismatch.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Giants
|
16
|
9
|
22
|
14
|
61.1%
|
72.20%
|
1.29
|
3.90
|
3.85
|
4.10
|
0.247
|
0.293
|
Diamondbacks
|
9
|
13
|
19
|
11
|
63.3%
|
71.60%
|
1.45
|
4.43
|
4.29
|
4.64
|
0.259
|
0.310
|
This matchup is closer, but based on WHIP, ERA,Metrics, and W-L record, SF clear has the better bullpen.
Offenses
Team
|
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Giants
|
Giants
|
21.2
|
5
|
|
105
|
6
|
|
0.321
|
15
|
|
17.6
|
3
|
Diamondbacks
|
Diamondbacks
|
-1
|
13
|
|
99
|
13
|
|
0.328
|
8
|
|
11
|
11
|
Both of these offenses are above average but SF is much better at producing runs, while ARIZ does get on base more often. SF also hits righties better (ran#14) than ARIZ (#20). We' ll give SF the edge here.
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Giants
|
51.5
|
1
|
Diamondbacks
|
9
|
14
|
The Giants get the edge on defense too.
In this game SF has every single edge. They have the better bullpen, the better offense and the better defense. Most significantly, Johnnny Cueto is just so much better than Shelby Miller. Cueto is also coming off a rare bad outing, and he has yet to post a to back bad outings. When we also factor in ARIZ's awful 13-28 home record, there's absolutely no reason to take ARIZ here.
PICK - SF ML (-148)
PITT @ OAK
Much like the rest of his career, Jeff locke has been incredible inconsistent this season. He has a 7-5 record, with 9 quality starts in his 15 outings. He also has 5 outings in which he's allowed 4 or more earned runs, including 4 in which he's allowed at least 6. Those 4 starts in which he allowed a combined 32 runs were all on the road. There is a huge discrepancy between Locke ant home and on the road. On the road, Locke has allowed 56 hits and 36 earned runs in 44 innings. He's also walked 16 while only fanning 21. That translates to a WHIP of 1.64 and an ERA of 7.36. By comparison, at home Locke has allowed 39 hits and 15 earned runs in 45.2 innings, while walking 12 and fanning 25. That translates to a WHIP of 1.12 and an ERA of 2.96.
Sonny Gray isn't having a particularly good season either. He only has a 3-6 record. He does have 8 quality starts in his 14 outings, and missed a 9th by only a single out. He started the season fast, with 4 consecutive quality starts. He then went through a 5 starts rough patch, with a single quality starts, in which he got lit up for 33 hits and 26 earned runs in just 21,2 innings. He then turned it around and has now held opponents to 2 or fewer earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts.
Neither of these pitchers has good numbers, but in spite of Gray's dreadful 5 start stretch, his metrics are still better than Locke's. When you factor in Locke's road woes, Gray get the edge.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Pirates
|
8
|
11
|
24
|
9
|
72.7%
|
73.60%
|
1.39
|
4.07
|
4.39
|
4.70
|
0.253
|
0.295
|
Athletics
|
14
|
9
|
21
|
9
|
70.0%
|
72.70%
|
1.30
|
4.19
|
3.69
|
4.05
|
0.253
|
0.304
|
The A's bullpen get the edge here because of better metrics by about 3 /4 of a run.
Offense
Team
|
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Pirates
|
Pirates
|
12.5
|
8
|
|
104
|
8
|
|
0.324
|
11
|
|
12.6
|
7
|
Athletics
|
Athletics
|
-36
|
24
|
|
91
|
21
|
|
0.306
|
23
|
|
2.3
|
28
|
The Pirates are an excellent offensive team, while tha As are well below average. However, The As hit lefties very well (rank #4), while the Bucs don't hit righties quite as well. The Pirates still have a clear edge, but not as big as it first appears.
Defense
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Pirates
|
13.2
|
11
|
Athletics
|
-42.2
|
30
|
The Pirates are much better defensively.
This one is a close call. The Pirates have the better offense and defense, but the As have the better bullpen and the better starting pitcher. Again, I'll bet on good pitching trumping good hitting. And I always look to fade Locke on the road.\
PICK - OAK ML (-156)