For what it's worth, yesterday was a great day. We liked a lot of games and most of them went our way, and yes we got a little lucky in a couple of them. Our posted plays finished an excellent 7-3. Coupled with our 19-12 roll over the last four days, Our 5 day winning streak now stands at 26-15. We hope that we can keep it going for another day.
In our 1st play, we liked the TEX ML with Cole Hamels against the Yankees and CC Sabathia. This one went just like we expected as Hamels tossed 7 shutout innings and Sabathia allowed 2 runs in the 1st and another 5 in the 7thfor an easy 7-1 TEXAS W.
For our 2nd play, we backed the Marlins on the ML as a small dog at DET. This play was basically a fade of Mike Pelfrey, who we still think really sucks. Pelfrey allowed 12 hits over 5.1 innings, but somehow managed to only allow 4 runs. He was extremely LUCKY. Adam Conley struck on 6 in the first 2 innings and led 3-0 through 4. Then it all fell apart in the 5th. After striking out the first batter he faced in the 5th, Conley gave up a walk, a homer, a double, another walk and another homer. Conley was pulled but the damage was done, 5-3 DET. Wittgrem, who relieved Conley promptly gave up a single and another homer and that was ballgame.
Our 3rd play was on the white hot Indians RL as we backed Corey Kluber v the woeful Braves and Matt Wisler. Kluber did not disappoint, throwing 8 innings of 2 run ball with 7 Ks. Wisler, however, kept pace with Kluber, tossing 6 innings of 2 run ball before being pulled. The game remained tied 2-2 until the 9th when the hapless Braves completely fell apart. Arodys Vizcaino walked the first 2 batters he faced. Then came a strikeout, a single, a fouled pop out, a wild pitch, an error by the SS, and a single. 5-2 CLEV and a RL W for us. Yes we were a little LUCKY, but bad teams like the Braves usually find ways to lose, even when they shouldn't.
For our 4th play, we decided to back the CUB RL again, with John Lester. Lester did his part limiting the Reds to 1 run on 7.1 innings. However the Cubs only got 2 off John Lamb and the Cubs led 2-1 going into the bottom of the 9th. Here we got really LUCKY. Rondon blew the save, and the Reds tied it at 2-2. It remained tied until the 15th, when the Reds awful bullpen fell apart again. The Cubs got a walk, and 2 straight singles to score the go ahead run. Then, following an intentional walk, a grand slam mad it 7-2 and gave us an improbable RL W. There was definitely luck involved, but part of our handicap analysis was the Reds pen.
Our 5th play was on the White Sox ML as we backed Jose Quintana v the Twins and Kyle Gibson. We mentioned in our post that the Sox just don't score for Quintana (10 runs in his 7 losses). Well, now it's 7 runs in h is 8 losses as Gibson shut out the Sox 4-0.
Our 6th play was on the Cardinals ML at KC. Michael Wacha pitched OK (9 H and 3 ER in 6 IP)and, Yordano Ventura did not (7 H and 7 ER in 5.1 IP), for an easy 8-2 W.
Our s7th play was on the Over 13 in the TOR / COL game. TOR scored 14 by themselves and the game easily flew over 14-9 for another W.
Our 8th and 9th plays were on ARIZ and Under 7.5 in the PHIL/ARIZ game. Of course when we picked ARIZ, we didn't expect Greinke to leave the game after 2 innings of a 1-1 game, after he injured himself swinging a bat. ARIZ ended up losing 4-3 but fortunately, the game stayed under giving us a split.
Our 10th and final play was on the Over 8.5 in the BALT/SD game. The O's scored 11 by themselves as this game easily soared over this ridiculously low total.
On to today's card. Unlike yesterday, We're not seeing a lot that jumps out at us, but we'll find a few. As I finalize a pick, I'll post it.
BOS @ TB
David Price is coming off an absolutely horrible start at TEX. He allowed 6 runs on 12 hits while striking out just 1 over 2.1 innings, and he gave up runs in each of the 3 innings he pitched, leaving the game with a 6-0 deficit, but the offense came all the way back to take him off the hook for a potential loss.. He's 8-4, and after a slow start, Price had really turned it on. He had tossed 8 straight quality starts in his previous 8 outings, allowing 2 earned runs or less in 7 of them. It should be noted that the Rays did face Price in BOS, back in April, and got to him for 8 hits and 8 runs in 3.2 innings
Matt Moore is having a pretty poor season for the Rays. He's 3-5 with just 6 quality starts in his 15 outings. He also has 7 outings in which he's allowed 4 or more earned runs.
David Price may be having issues with consistency, but compared to Matt Moore, he's still clearly much better across the board. His metrics, in particular, are well over a half run better.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Red Sox
|
11
|
13
|
18
|
7
|
72.0%
|
74.90%
|
1.31
|
3.52
|
4.07
|
3.95
|
0.242
|
0.292
|
Rays
|
13
|
14
|
19
|
8
|
70.4%
|
77.70%
|
1.33
|
4.33
|
3.92
|
4.12
|
0.256
|
0.303
|
Both of these bullpens are decent, but neither is great. They also appear to be very evenly matched. There are some sources that give BOS the edge, but I see nothing to confirm that. IMO, there's no edge here for either team.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Red Sox
|
65.3
|
1
|
|
117
|
1
|
|
0.352
|
1
|
|
18.3
|
1
|
Rays
|
-4.5
|
12
|
|
98
|
13
|
|
0.314
|
19
|
|
7.9
|
20
|
Offensively, the Rays are mediocre, while the Red Sox are top ranked. The Red Sox edge, however is mitigates somewhat, because they don't hit lefties quite as well (rank #10), while TB hits lefties much better (rank #3).
Defense
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Red Sox
|
11.5
|
12
|
Rays
|
-12.4
|
23
|
The Red Sox also have the better defensive team.
What edges does TB have in this matchup? Well, they do hit lefties better than BOS does(rank #3 v #10) and they faced Price earlier this year and had success. That's it. That's not much to bet on. The Red Sox have the better offense, the better defense and maybe a very slightly better bullpen. And according to the numbers, the clearly better starting pitcher. That enough for me. I think Price bounces back and I think Moore continues to struggle.
PICK - BOS ML (-163)
CHI Cubs @ CIN
Kyle Hendricks is pitching decently for the Cubs, He's only 5-6, with 7 quality start in his 14 outings. However, he's also allowed more than 3 earned runs (4) just twice all season. He keeps the Cubs in games, and with their offense, that's usually enough. Hendricks id definitely, not as good on the road (1-5 with a 1.26 WHIP and a 3.79 ERA), but he's not awful either.
I like Cody Reed. He's only made 2 starts for the Reds this season. He's allowed 15 hits and 9 earned runs in 12 innings. He does have an impressive 15/5 K/BB rate.
This is not a mismatch, by any means, but the data on Reed is very limited. His metrics, however are promising.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cubs
|
9
|
7
|
14
|
6
|
70.0%
|
73.50%
|
1.08
|
3.64
|
3.66
|
3.96
|
0.203
|
0.255
|
Reds
|
13
|
20
|
13
|
16
|
44.8%
|
68.80%
|
1.54
|
6.13
|
4.87
|
5.17
|
0.266
|
0.300
|
The Cubs bullpen has had some problems lately, but they're still much better than the Reds, who have, by a wide margin, the absolutely worst bullpen in baseball.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
37
|
3
|
|
108
|
4
|
|
0.334
|
5
|
|
18.1
|
2
|
Reds
|
-66.7
|
28
|
|
82
|
28
|
|
0.300
|
27
|
|
3.1
|
27
|
This is another mismatch. The Cubs have a potent offense, while the Reds are woeful offensively.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
47.2
|
2
|
Reds
|
8.6
|
13
|
The Reds are a mediocre defensively, while the Cubs are excellent.
The Cubs have been slumping. So what's the cure? So far, a visit to CIN seems to be working quite well. It worked again last night, and I expect it to work again today. Even if Reed tosses a good game, and he could very well do so, there's always a good chance against that dreadful Reds pen. Unless Hendricks allows a ton of runs, and he hasn't allowed more than 4 in a game all season, the Cubs should win. The Cubs possess almost every advantage in this game. They have the much better bullpen, the better offense and the better defense. I think the starting pitching matchup is close, but it shouldn't matter. When I saw this line at -200 this morning. This was a pass for me . I didn't want to lay 1.5 on this game. However, this line's come down considerably so I'll place a wager on the better team to simply win the game. I may regret it but...
PICK - CHI Cubs ML (-162)
HTN @ LAA
Dallas Keuchel is not having a good season. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner is only 4-9. with 8 quality starts in his 16 outings. He has allowed more than 4 earned runs in 7 of his starts. He's been better lately with 4 quality starts in his last 6 outings, and even in the other 2, he's only allowed 4 earned runs.
Jered Weaver isn't having a good season either. He's got a 6-6 record, with 7 quality starts in his 15 outings but he also has 8 starts, in which he's allowed 4 or more earned runs. Weaver's 36% hard-contact rate and 13% strikeout rate is making it difficult for him to produce consistent results. Velocity is expected to decline for pitchers as they age, Weaver’s lost more than 1 MPH between 2011 and 2012. He lost more than 1 MPH mile again between 2012 and 2013. And last year, he lost 3 MPH. He lost even more after returning from a DL stint. What we have now is a Jered Weaver whose fastball averages 80 or 81.
Neither of these pitchers is pitching well right now, but Keuchel's metrics tell me that his ERA is somewhat inflated. His unusually low strand rate is another indication that Keuchel's numbers should improve as that rate normalizes. Keuchl's metrics are 1.5-2 runs better than weaver's. He may never be as good as he was last year, but he's still much better than Weaver.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Astros
|
14
|
10
|
22
|
10
|
68.8%
|
75.40%
|
1.29
|
3.25
|
3.79
|
3.36
|
0.258
|
0.287
|
Angels
|
12
|
12
|
15
|
9
|
62.5%
|
74.50%
|
1.38
|
3.91
|
4.47
|
4.57
|
0.262
|
0.280
|
The Astros have one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Angels have one of the worst. 'nuff said.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Astros
|
-11.2
|
14
|
|
99
|
11
|
|
0.321
|
13
|
|
8.8
|
16
|
Angels
|
-15.7
|
17
|
|
98
|
13
|
|
0.312
|
20
|
|
8.5
|
17
|
These two offenses are fairly close. However, when we factor in that the Astros hit righties much better (rank #9) and the Angels hit lefties much worse (#25). The edge belongs to HTN.
Defense
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Astros
|
-3
|
22
|
Angels
|
0.3
|
18
|
Both of these teams are below average defensive, but the Astros a slightly worse.
The Angels don't have many edges in this game. They have a slightly better defense, and that's about it. The Astros have the better offense, the much better bullpen and the better starting pitcher. The soft-tossing Weaver is well past his prime and will continue to regress. He may be able to frustrate lineups once or twice through the orde, once in a while, but more often than not, he gets hit a lot. That's what I expect to happen today. Dallas McHugh is no prize but he still much better than Weaver. For me, Jered Weaver's a complete fade.
PICK - HTN ML (-133)
NYM @ WASH
In 4r starts this season, Logan Verrett has worked to a 5.79 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in 18.2 innings. He does, however have 2 quality starts.
Max Scherzer is having a good season. He's 8-5, with 11 quality starts in his 16 outings. He does have 5 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs. Scherzer's only had 1 problem this season, the gopher balls. He's given up 20 HRs in his 16 starts. It happened again in his last start. Scherzer went into the 5th inning with a 1-run lead, but gave up a pair of homers which led to his 5th loss of the season. That was the first time that he failed to post a quality start in his last 5 outings.
Except for the HRs, Scherzer's numbers are excellent and Verrett;s HR rate isn't much better. The NATS get a big edge here.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mets
|
11
|
10
|
27
|
6
|
81.8%
|
80.00%
|
1.20
|
3.16
|
3.63
|
3.98
|
0.245
|
0.282
|
Nationals
|
11
|
10
|
21
|
7
|
75.0%
|
76.60%
|
1.15
|
3.24
|
3.46
|
3.71
|
0.227
|
0.286
|
Both teams possess excellent bullpens. We'll give the Nats a small edge based in WHIP and metrics.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
-25.3
|
20
|
|
94
|
20
|
|
0.306
|
22
|
|
6.7
|
21
|
Nationals
|
-7.5
|
13
|
|
97
|
15
|
|
0.319
|
14
|
|
11.5
|
9
|
The Nationals are a slightly above average offense. That still makes them clearly better than the Mets who are below average offensively.
Defense
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
3.5
|
17
|
Nationals
|
27.3
|
4
|
The Nationals are clearly the better defensive team.
There's just no area in this matchup where the Mets have an edge. The Nationals have the much better starting pitcher, the much better offense, the better defense and the slightly better bullpen. All Scherzer needs to do is keep the ball in the park because that's the only way the Mets score. They can hit the long ball. I expect Scherzer to bounce back and I expect the Nats will get to Verrett.
PICK - WASH RL (-105)
CLEV @ ATL
Danny Salazar is having a great season. He's 9-3 with 8 quality starts in his 14 outings. He missed 2 more by 1 out. Salazar has allowed more than 3 earned runs just once, and has allowed 2 or less in 11 of his starts. Right now, his only weakness is that he still walks too many batters (43 in 86.1 innings).
Joel De La Cruz will be making his major league debut tonight. . He was signed as a minor league free agent in November and has spent all season with Triple-A Gwinnett. He began the season in the bullpen, but was moved to the rotation and has a 2.16 ERA over his last four starts. Overall he's 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA in 21 games.
We have no stats for De La Cruz, but with the sole exception of walks, Salazar's are excellent.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Indians
|
11
|
11
|
16
|
7
|
69.6%
|
78.30%
|
1.18
|
3.28
|
3.82
|
3.95
|
0.231
|
0.278
|
Braves
|
11
|
18
|
14
|
10
|
58.3%
|
71.60%
|
1.32
|
4.23
|
4.26
|
4.14
|
0.243
|
0.320
|
When we compare these bullpens, The Indians are clearly better across the board.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
18.7
|
7
|
|
103
|
8
|
|
0.324
|
11
|
|
13.5
|
4
|
Braves
|
-95.9
|
30
|
|
72
|
30
|
|
0.279
|
30
|
|
1
|
29
|
This is a complete mismatch. CLEV is well above average, while ATL has the worst offense in baseball
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
17.1
|
7
|
Braves
|
15.1
|
9
|
Both teams are solid defensively. There's no real edge here.
The Indians are white hot right now. I tried stepping in front of that train Sunday and got run over. This week, I wasn't going to get burned again, so I jumped on the Indians and cashed a ML and RL ticket. The Indians have the much better bullpen, the much better offense, and the much better starting pitcher. There's no area where the Braves have an edge. The Indians have outscored opponents 73-24 and have hit 21 homers, including 10 in their last 4 games, during their 11 game winning streak. They have scored at least 6 runs 6 times int heir last 7 games (they only had 5 last night). I'm still not stepping in front of that train again, and especially not with a free agent minor league pickup on the hill against them..
PICK - CLEV - RL (-140)
TEX @ NYY
Nick Martinez has started 2 games for the Rangers this season. He's allowed 12 hits and 7 earned runs in his 10.1 innings as a starter. He's also walked more (5) than he's fanned (3). That translates to 17 baserunners in just over 10 innings. IMOm Martinez has been lucky to have only given up 7 runs.
Masahiro Tanaka has pitched reasonably well for the Yankees this season. He's 5-2, with 10 quality starts in his 15 outings, including 6 in his last 7 starts. He missed an 11th quality start by 1 out. Tanaka has only allowed more than 3 earned run just 3 times. In his last 7 starts Tanaka has posted a 1.01 WHIP and a 2.47 ERA.
The numbers speak for themselves. Tanaka's just much better.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rangers
|
18
|
14
|
30
|
8
|
78.9%
|
73.10%
|
1.32
|
4.73
|
4.53
|
4.38
|
0.252
|
0.308
|
Yankees
|
14
|
9
|
23
|
4
|
85.2%
|
73.00%
|
1.25
|
3.87
|
3.48
|
3.00
|
0.252
|
0.293
|
Both of these teams have good bullpens, but the Yankees have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Based on WHIP, ERA and metrics, the Yankees have the clearly better unit, their metrics are over a full run better.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rangers
|
-13.6
|
15
|
|
95
|
19
|
|
0.323
|
12
|
|
10.8
|
11
|
Yankees
|
-41.9
|
27
|
|
86
|
27
|
|
0.303
|
24
|
|
3.2
|
26
|
The Rangers have a mediocre offense, which still makes them much better than the offensively challenged Yankees. However when we factor in that the Ra ngers don't hit righties much better (rank #19)tahn the Yankees do (rank #21), the Rangers still get an edge here, but not a huge one.
Defenses
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Rangers
|
22.2
|
6
|
Yankees
|
-19.4
|
27
|
The Rangers are a very good defensive team, the Yankees are not.
The Yankees have the better bullpen, and the better starting pitcher. The Rangers have the better offense and the better defense. Good pitching still trumps good hitting in my book. I bet this game early because I expect it to climb.
PICK - NYY ML (-168)
KC @ STL
Edinson Volquez has been very inconsistent for the Royals this season. He's 7-7 and has thrown 8 quality starts in his 16 outings. However, he also has 7 starts in which he's allowed 4 or more earned runs, and 5 in which he's allowed 5 or more. He's also been much worse on the road. In his 5 road starts he's allowed 39 hits and 28 earned runs in 33 innings. He's also walked 19. That translates to 58 baserunners in 33 innings. His road WHIP is an astronomical 1.76 and his road ERA is an equally bad 6.82. In his last 2 outings, he allowed 16 hits and 16 earned runs in just 7.1 innings. He also still walks too many batters (36).
Carlos Martinez Has been incredibly streaky for the Cardinals this season and holds a 7-5 record. He started out the season by tossing 4 straight quality starts. He followed that up with a 5 start stretch in which he failed to record a single quality start, allowing 28 hits and 19 earned runs in 25 innings. That stretch coincided with the period when it became public that Martinez was being accused of transmitting an STD. He has followed that up with his current streak of 5 straight quality starts, in 4 of which he allowed 1 or 0 earner runs.
There's no question Martinez has the better numbers. His metrics are almost a half run better that Volquez's.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cardinals
|
13
|
8
|
15
|
9
|
62.5%
|
74.30%
|
1.25
|
3.77
|
3.99
|
3.76
|
0.242
|
0.265
|
Royals
|
14
|
5
|
19
|
8
|
70.4%
|
81.90%
|
1.33
|
2.78
|
4.12
|
3.89
|
0.248
|
0.283
|
These two bullpens are both very good and pretty even. I'll give the Royals a slight edge but very slight, especially considering the metrics favor STL.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
31.4
|
4
|
|
112
|
2
|
|
0.337
|
4
|
|
12.3
|
7
|
Royals
|
-16
|
19
|
|
97
|
15
|
|
0.319
|
14
|
|
9.4
|
15
|
The Cardinal have a huge edge here. It's even bigger when you factor in that STL hits righties very well (rank #3) and KC doesn't (rank #23).
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
-2.9
|
21
|
Royals
|
13.8
|
10
|
The Royals are much better defensively.
The Cards have the much better O, a bullpen that is even or close to even with KC's, and the better starting pitcher, who is pitching much better right now. We should also note that while the Cards are not a good home team (15-21, 41.7% v 25-15, 62.5% on the road). the Royals are a dreadful road team (13-25, 34/2% v. 27-11, 71.1% at home). The bottom line is that the Cards have almost every edge.
PICK - STL ML (-157)