For what it's worth, yesterday was another good day. Our posted plays finished a solid 4-2. Coupled with our 15-10 weekend, we're now on a 19-12 roll over the last four days. All we can say is - it's about time and we sure hope we can keep it going another day.
In our first playyesterday, we liked the under in the NYM / WASH game. Uncharacteristically, the Mets jumped on Joe Ross for 4 runs in the first 3 innings, and the Nats responded with 5 off of Noah Syndergaard in the bottom of the 3rd and we were dead and dead wrong as well.
For our second play, we jumped on the white hot Indians and equally hot Trevor Bauer. The line which was in the -160s range in the early AM, kept dropping all day. We didn't understand it, and we certainly weren't buying it. Bauer wasn't as sharp as he has been in recent outings, but he still only gave up 2 runs in 6 innings, and a 3-run HR from Lonnie Chisenhall proved to be enough to give the Indians their 10th straight win, a give us a ML W. The Indians have outscored opponents 68-21 and have hit 21 homers, including 10 in their last three games, during theirstreak. They also had 14 hits as they scored at least six runs for the 7th straight game.
Our third play was on the Cubs RL as we backed Jake Arrieta v the woeful Reds. Arrieta struggled, giving up a season high 5 runs in 5 innings, but did hit his 4th career HR. Kris Bryant hit 3 HRs and drove in 6 runs, as the Cubs jumped on Dan Straily for 7 runs in 3.2 innings and rolled to an 11-8 W.
For our fourth play, we decided to ignore the numbers and back the Cards because we thought we saw something. We were smarter. It's one thing to disagree with the numbers and pass on a game, that costs nothing. It's another thing to bet against the numbers. We did and we paid the price. The numbers were right and we looked pretty dumb being on the wrong end of a 6-2 Cards loss.
Our fifth and final pay play was a double dipper as we backed the Rockies as a dog and also bet the under 11. We were pretty confident about the total, but inexplicably it went down from 12 to 11. For us, the side was more of a crapshoot. The numbers backed Gray, but we've backed him a few times this season without much success. He seems to pitch just well enough to lose. Estrada's pitched well for the Jays, but do does give up HRs and at Coors, that's a scary prospect. After 5 innings it was 1-0 TOR. Gray was pitching well and losing, and Estrada hadn't given up a HR. Both our bets looked to be in trouble. Then all hell broke loose. TOR added 3 in the top of the 6th and COL got all 3 back in the bottom of the inning. In the bottom of the 7th COL erupted for 6 against the crappy Blue Jay bullpen who blew another save (#11) and lost another game (#18) turning a 4-3 lead into a 9-4 deficit and giving us our Over 11 and ML W.
The lesson we relearned/reinforced in our STL loss (nothing reinforces better than losing $) was, if we trust our numbers, and we do, don't bet against them. It's OK to disagree and pass, that costs us nothing. but betting the other way can be expensive.
A second lesson was also reinforced in that same STL / KC game. Be very wary about betting against KC or BALT at home.
|
Home
|
|
Road
|
|
BALT
|
31-13
|
70.5%
|
14-17
|
45,2%
|
KC
|
27-10
|
73.0%
|
13-25
|
34.20%
|
There are a few other teams who are very tough at home, TEX and the Cubs for example, but with BALT and KC there is a huge discrepancy between how they play at home and how they play on the road. Just something to consider.
On to today's card. As I finalize a pick, I'll post it. Here's the first one.
TEX @ NYY
Cole Hamels is having a fine season For TEX. He's 8-1, with 11 quality starts in his 15 outings, including his last 5, and he's allowed more than 3 earned runs just twice this season. Hamels has not been quite as dominant as he used to be, his 1.40 HR/9 and 3.44 BB/9 are both easily career highs, but over his last 5 starts, Hamels has a 1.04 WHIP and a 1.82 ERA. He's allowed 22 hit and on 7 earned runs, with 28 strikeouts and 14 walks. He's also been excellent on the road where he's 5-0 with a 1.00 WHIP and 1.64 ERA.
CC Sabathia is having a better season than I expected, but I don't expect it to last. He's 5-4, with 8 quality start in his 12 outings. He's only allowed more than 3 earned runs once. Sabathia doesn't go very deep in his games anymore. He's averaging just over 5.2 innings per start, but with the Yankees formidable bullpen that hasn't been a problem. Sabathia's K/9 rate is well below where he's been the last couple of years, his BB/9 is at a career high, and his average fastball velocity is now at 88.8 mph, down from the 90.3 of even last season. Sabathia also hasn't been as effective at Yankee Stadium either, posting a 1-2 record with a 1.43 WHIP and a 3.58 ERA.
Hamels' numbers are fine except his BB/9 and HR/9 and Sabathia's BB/9 is worse than Hamels. Hamels' metrics are over 1/2 of a run better than Sabathia's.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rangers
|
18
|
14
|
30
|
8
|
78.9%
|
73.10%
|
1.32
|
4.73
|
4.53
|
4.38
|
0.252
|
0.308
|
Yankees
|
14
|
9
|
23
|
4
|
85.2%
|
73.00%
|
1.25
|
3.87
|
3.48
|
3.00
|
0.252
|
0.293
|
Both of these teams have good bullpens, but based on WHIP, ERA and metrics, the Yankees have the clearly better unit, their metrics are over a full run better.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rangers
|
-13.6
|
15
|
|
95
|
19
|
|
0.323
|
12
|
|
10.8
|
11
|
Yankees
|
-41.9
|
27
|
|
86
|
27
|
|
0.303
|
24
|
|
3.2
|
26
|
The Rangers have a mediocre offense, which still makes them much better than the offensively challenged Yankees. When we factor in that the Rangers hit lefties better (rank #14), while the Yankees fare much worse (rank #27), the Ranger get an even bigger edge here.
Defenses
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Rangers
|
22.2
|
6
|
Yankees
|
-19.4
|
27
|
The Rangers are a very good defensive team, the Yankees are not.
The Yankees have the better bullpen, but that's about all. The Rangers have the better offense and the better defense. Most importantly, the Rangers have the better starting pitcher. Hamels may not be a s good as he once was, but hes still well above average and much better than Sabathia. Sabathia is well past his prime and I fully expect him to continue to regress. I don't understand this line. Early this morning TEX was -116 and now they're -103). That's telling me this game is basically pick 'em? I'm not buying it.
PICK - TEX ML (-103)
MIA @ DET
Adam Conley is having a solid season for the Marlins, He's 4-4 with 6 quality starts in his 14 non rain shortened outings. He's also allowed 4 or more earned run on 5 occasions, but more than 4 only twice, meaning he keeps his team in the game. In his last 5 outings, Conley has 3 quality starts and missed a 4th by a single out.
Mike Pelfrey is having an awful season. He 1-7 with just 3 quality starts in his 14 outings as a starter. Frankly that's 3 more than I expectedfrom him. He's allowed more than 4 earned runs 6 times already this season. He doesn't strike out many (40 in 80.2 innings) and he walks almost as many (31) He's allowed 106 hit and coupled with his 31 walks, that's 137 baserunners in just over 80 innings. Pelfrey's almost always an automatic play again for me.
The numbers say it all. Conley has pretty much every edge. Conley's metrics are high, but they're over a half run lower than Pelfrey's.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Marlins
|
14
|
15
|
29
|
12
|
70.7%
|
76.60%
|
1.34
|
3.66
|
4.15
|
4.24
|
0.243
|
0.295
|
Tigers
|
10
|
8
|
21
|
8
|
72.4%
|
70.00%
|
1.37
|
4.42
|
4.29
|
3.96
|
0.265
|
0.319
|
Neither team has a great bullpen, but they are very evenly matched. I see no real edge here.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Marlins
|
-16
|
18
|
|
96
|
18
|
|
0.317
|
16
|
|
11.2
|
10
|
Tigers
|
2.8
|
10
|
|
103
|
8
|
|
0.328
|
9
|
|
8.2
|
18
|
The Marlins have a very mediocre offense, definitely below average. The Tigers O is well above average. Edge DET
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Marlins
|
32.8
|
3
|
Tigers
|
-22.2
|
28
|
The Marlin are a very good defensive team, the Tiger are a very bad defensive team. Big edge Marlins.
The tigers have one big edge in this game. They have the much better offense. The Marlins have the much better defense and by default the much better starting pitcher. I don't think this game is a slam dunk because the Tigers O could get to Conley and keep this close, but while I'm not sure about Conley, I am reasonably sure Pelfrey will suck. Maybe he surprises me, but I certainly won't bet on it. I think the wrong team is favored, so for me this games comes down to fading Pelfrey once again. At a dog price...
PICK - MIA - ML (+108)
CLEV @ ATL
Corey Kluber is having a solid, but somewhat inconsistent season for the streaking Indians. He's 7-7 with 9 quality starts in his 15 outings, with 103 strikeouts and only 22 walks in 102.2 innings. However, Kluber also has 6 itarts n which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs, and 4 in which it was 5 or more. Unfortunately there's no way to predict when Kluber's going to toss a klunker, it just happens every once in a while. For example, in his last 7 outings, Kluber has 5 quality starts in which he allowed 20 hits and 5 earned runs in 38.1 innings. However, in the other 2, he allowed 16 hits and 11 earned runs in 12 innings. Go figure.
Matt Wisler is actually having a decent season for a bad ATL team. He's only 3-7, but he's tossed 10 quality starts in his 14 outings. While control isn't typically an issue for Wisler, his lack of strikeouts (61 in 89.2 innings) and tendency to give up homers (13) is.
The numbers are pretty clear. Kluber leads in just about every category. His metrics are well over a full run better than Wisler's.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Indians
|
11
|
11
|
15
|
7
|
68.2%
|
78.30%
|
1.18
|
3.28
|
3.82
|
3.95
|
0.231
|
0.278
|
Braves
|
11
|
17
|
14
|
10
|
58.3%
|
71.60%
|
1.32
|
4.23
|
4.26
|
4.14
|
0.243
|
0.320
|
When we compare these bullpens, The Indians are clearly better across the board.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
18.7
|
7
|
|
103
|
8
|
|
0.324
|
11
|
|
13.5
|
4
|
Braves
|
-95.9
|
30
|
|
72
|
30
|
|
0.279
|
30
|
|
1
|
29
|
This is a complete mismatch. CLEV is well above average, while ATL has the worst offense in baseball
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
17.1
|
7
|
Braves
|
15.1
|
9
|
Both teams are solid defensively. There's no real edge here.
The Indians are white hot right now. I tried stepping in front of that train Sunday and got run over. Yesterday, I wasn't going to get burned again, so I jumped on the Indians and cashed a ticket. The Indians have the much better bullpen, the much better offense, and the better starting pitcher. There's no area where the Braves have an edge. Don't misunderstand me. Kluber could throw one of his inexplicable klunker's, and Wisler is definitely good enough to shut down even a white hot CLEV O, if he's on, but I won't bet on it. The Indians have outscored opponents 68-21 and have hit 21 homers, including 10 in their last three games, during their 10 game winning streak. They also had 14 hits as they scored at least six runs for the 7th straight game. I'm not stepping in front of that train again.
PICK - CLEV RL (-120)
CHI Cubs @ CIN
Jon Lester just keeps rolling along. He's 9-3, with 13 quality starts in his 15 outings, including his last 6. He missed a 14th quality start by 1 out. He's allowed 2 runs on less in 12 of his 15 starts. Lester is one of the best starters in the game today. However, he'll likely see a little regression thanks to his fortunate .264 BABIP and 87.4% strand rate.
John Lamb is struggling for the woeful Reds this season. He's 1-4 with 4 quality starts in his 10 outings. However, he also has 4 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs and two where he allowed at least 6. Lamb delivered 7-plus innings in consecutive quality starts to open the month of June, but since then, he's regressed over his last 3 starts. He hasn't lasted more than 5.1 innings in any of them, and with a 34:24 K:BB in 52.2 innings, Lamb doesn't bring much to the table. He missed bats last year for the Reds and posted good strikeout numbers in the minors, but he just hasn't put it together this season.
This is a complete mismatch!
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cubs
|
9
|
7
|
14
|
5
|
73.7%
|
73.50%
|
1.08
|
3.64
|
3.66
|
3.96
|
0.203
|
0.255
|
Reds
|
13
|
19
|
13
|
16
|
44.8%
|
68.80%
|
1.54
|
6.13
|
4.87
|
5.17
|
0.266
|
0.300
|
The Cubs bullpen has had some problems lately, but they're still much better than the Reds, who have, by a wide margin, the absolutely worst bullpen in baseball.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
37
|
3
|
|
108
|
4
|
|
0.334
|
5
|
|
18.1
|
2
|
Reds
|
-66.7
|
28
|
|
82
|
28
|
|
0.300
|
27
|
|
3.1
|
27
|
This is another mismatch. The Cubs have a potent offense, while the Reds are woeful offensively.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
47.2
|
2
|
Reds
|
8.6
|
13
|
The Reds are a mediocre defensively, while the Cubs are excellent.
The Cubs have been slumping. So what's the cure, a visit to CIN. It worked last night and I expect it to work again tonight. Even if Lamb tosses a good game, there's still a good chance against that dreadful Reds pen. Unless Lester allows a ton of runs, the Cubs should win handily. The Cubs possess every advantage in this game. They have the much better starting pitcher, the better bullpen, the better offense and the better defense. So we'll go to the well one more time
PICK - CHI Cubs RL (-145)
MINN @ CHI WS
Kyle Gibson is not having a good season, He's 0-5 with just 2 quality starts in his 7 outings. He's also allowed over 5 earned runs in 3 outings. Opponents have now scored at least five runs off of Gibson in 3 of his last 4 starts. He has only fanned 22 in his 38.2 innings and has walked almost as many (17). Adding his 17 walks to the 45 hits he's allowed, that translates to 62 baserunners in Gibson's 38.2 innings, and that's a recipe for disaster.
Jose Quintana should be suing the White Sox offense for non support. He's only 5-7 with 11 quality starts in his 15 outings. The White Sox have scored just 10 runs in Quintana's 7 losses. Quintana is coming off his worst start of the season, by far, as he allowed 8 hits and 6 walks in 5.1 innings, resulting in 6 runs. That outing was totally uncharacteristic of the Quintana we're used to seeing. it was only the 3rd time in 15 starts that he's allowed more than t3 runs, and the 1st time all year that he's had more walks than strikeouts. Quintana came into that game with an outstanding 87:18 K:BB.
Again the numbers speak for themselves, as Quintana holds every edge and his metrics are well over a full run better than Gibson's.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Twins
|
13
|
15
|
11
|
11
|
50.0%
|
73.60%
|
1.46
|
4.59
|
4.21
|
4.16
|
0.285
|
0.327
|
White Sox
|
11
|
10
|
22
|
12
|
64.7%
|
75.60%
|
1.38
|
3.51
|
4.33
|
4.33
|
0.257
|
0.304
|
The metrics are close and even lean to MINN, but everything else leans CHI. The White Sox bullpen is no prize, but it still l0ooks better than the Twins pen.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-31.2
|
22
|
|
88
|
25
|
|
0.306
|
23
|
|
3.7
|
25
|
White Sox
|
-39
|
25
|
|
89
|
22
|
|
0.308
|
21
|
|
4.7
|
24
|
Both of these offenses are anemic. I can't, in good conscience, give either one an edge.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-29
|
29
|
White Sox
|
-12.7
|
24
|
Both of these teams are weak defensively. The Twins are just a little more so.
For me, this game comes down to pitching. The White Sox bullpen is a little better than the Twins, but the big difference is between the two starting pitchers. With rare exception Quintana's been very good and Gibson with rare exception has been awful. I just can't back Gibson, the way he's been pitching, and I fully expect Quintana to bounce back from his worst outing of the season.
PICK - CHI WS ML (-163)
STL @ KC
Michael Wacha's had a very streaky season for the Cardinals. He's only 3-7, but he's tossed 9 quality starts in his 15 outings. After a rough outing at PITT to open the season, Wacha reeled on 5 consecutive quality starts and his ERA sat at 2.65. That was followed by a 4 start stretch in which Wacha was awful, as he allowed 20 earned runs in just 18 innings and watched his ERA climb to 5.04. Now he's followed that up with 4 quality starts in his last 5 outings, including his last 3. Over his last 3 starts he's posted a 2.11 ERA.
Yordano Ventura is having an uneven season for the Royals. He's tossed 7 quality starts in his 14 outings, including his last 2, and 3 out of his last 4. However, he also has 5 outings where he's allowed at least 4 earned runs, and 4 where he's allowed at least 5. He still walks too many (36) and when added to the 77 hits he's allowed, that translates to 113 baserunners in just over 79 innings and explains his high 1.42 WHIP.
Wacha's numbers aren't particularly good, but they're better than Ventura's. His metrics, in particular, are well over a half a run better as well.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cardinals
|
13
|
8
|
15
|
9
|
62.5%
|
74.30%
|
1.25
|
3.77
|
3.99
|
3.76
|
0.242
|
0.265
|
Royals
|
14
|
5
|
19
|
8
|
70.4%
|
81.90%
|
1.33
|
2.78
|
4.12
|
3.89
|
0.248
|
0.283
|
These two bullpens are both very good and pretty even. I'll give the Royals a slight edge but very slight, especially considering the metrics actually favor STL.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
31.4
|
4
|
|
112
|
2
|
|
0.337
|
4
|
|
12.3
|
7
|
Royals
|
-16
|
19
|
|
97
|
15
|
|
0.319
|
14
|
|
9.4
|
15
|
The Cardinal have a huge edge here. It's even bigger when you factor in that STL hits righties very well (rank #3) and KC doesn't (rank #23).
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
-2.9
|
21
|
Royals
|
13.8
|
10
|
The Royals are much better defensively.
The Cards have the much better O, a bullpen that is even, or close to even, with KC, and the better starting pitcher. The only thing that gives me pause, is that the Royals are so damn good at home (27-10, 73%), However the Cards are a very good road team (24-15, 61.5%). Bottom line is, unlike last night, tonight, my numbers are in agreement.
PICK - STL ML (-109)
TOR @ COL
JA Happ is having a decent season for the Blue Jays. He's 9-3, with 11 quality starts in his 15 outings. However, after starting the season with 7 straight quality starts, Happ only tossed 4 in his next 8 starts, and only 1 in his last 4.
Eddie Butler is having a pretty bad season for COL. He's 2-4 with 3 quality starts (all on the road) in his 8 outings, Butler's home starts have been atrocious. In his 4 home starts, Butler has allowed 37 hits, 6 HRs, and 23 earned runs in 21.1 innings. His home WHIP is an awful 1.97 and his home ERA is an astronomical 9.70.
The numbers are ugly for both of these pitchers. Their metrics are all in the 4.50 range.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Blue Jays
|
8
|
18
|
20
|
11
|
64.5%
|
75.00%
|
1.26
|
4.13
|
4.11
|
4.02
|
0.243
|
0.309
|
Rockies
|
10
|
12
|
21
|
11
|
65.6%
|
69.80%
|
1.44
|
4.80
|
4.13
|
4.12
|
0.275
|
0.313
|
Neither bullpen is very good. In fact, they're both awful. Neither deserves an edge.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Blue Jays
|
4.6
|
9
|
|
103
|
8
|
|
0.328
|
7
|
|
11.5
|
8
|
Rockies
|
-14.1
|
16
|
|
97
|
15
|
|
0.344
|
2
|
|
9.7
|
14
|
The Jays have most of the edges here, but this game is at Coors so expect both teams to score. When we factor in home/away numbers wRC+ - COL ranks #10 and TOR ranks #13, wOBRA - COL ranks #1 and TOR #15
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Blue Jays
|
8.1
|
14
|
Rockies
|
16.6
|
8
|
COL is the better defensive team.
We have two lousy pitchers, two lousy bullpens and two decent offenses at Coors.
PICK OVER 13 (-110)
PHIL @ ARIZ
You Wouldn't know it based on his record, but Jerad Eickhoff is having a pretty good season for the Phillies. He's only 5-9, but he's tossed 10 quality starts in his 15 outings, including 6 of his last 8. He missed a 7th by 1 out in his last start. He's only allowed more than 3 earned run twice all season.
In his first 2 starts, Zack Greinke went 0-2, allowed 11 runs in 10 innings, and had an ERA of 9.90. Since then, he's been pretty much exactly what the Diamondbacks paid for. Greinke has gone 10-1, with 10 quality starts in his 14 outings, missing the 11th by 1 out in his last start..
Borth pitchers are pitching very well right now. We'll give Greinke a small edge based on slightly better metrics.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Phillies
|
10
|
12
|
22
|
8
|
73.3%
|
75.60%
|
1.33
|
4.48
|
3.85
|
4.18
|
0.257
|
0.297
|
Diamondbacks
|
9
|
11
|
19
|
8
|
70.4%
|
72.50%
|
1.41
|
4.28
|
4.28
|
4.59
|
0.259
|
0.302
|
Neither bullpen is great, but we'll give PHIL the edge based on better metrics.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Phillies
|
-90.1
|
28
|
|
74
|
29
|
|
0.284
|
29
|
|
0
|
30
|
Diamondbacks
|
2.8
|
10
|
|
99
|
11
|
|
0.328
|
7
|
|
10.8
|
12
|
The Diamondbacks are well above average offensively, while PHIL is really bad.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Phillies
|
3.8
|
16
|
Diamondbacks
|
7.2
|
15
|
Both teams are mediocre defensively.
We have two very good starting pitchers, two adequate a pretty even pen and two mediocre defenses. The only real edge is that ARIZ has the mich better offense.
PICK - ARIZ ML (-179) and UNDER 7.5 (-110)
BALT @ SD
Both of these pitcher stink - can't give either any edge
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Orioles
|
20
|
7
|
27
|
10
|
73.0%
|
81.50%
|
1.39
|
2.91
|
4.30
|
4.12
|
0.262
|
0.295
|
Padres
|
12
|
9
|
19
|
9
|
67.9%
|
72.00%
|
1.41
|
4.22
|
4.23
|
4.25
|
0.252
|
0.301
|
The O's have the better W-L record, Save rate and Strand Rate. We'll Give the O's a very small edge
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
41.5
|
2
|
|
112
|
2
|
|
0.342
|
3
|
|
12.4
|
6
|
Padres
|
-33.5
|
23
|
|
87
|
26
|
|
0.297
|
28
|
|
5.9
|
23
|
Big edge O's
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
-17.3
|
25
|
Padres
|
0
|
19
|
Both teams are lousy defensively, but the O's are a little worse.
Bothe of these starting pitchers suck. So I'm betting the offenses dominate.
PICK - OVER 8.5