For what it's worth, yesterday was a good day. We didn't like that many games, but our posted plays finished a solid 4-2. Coupled with a 5-4 Friday and a 6-4 Saturday, the weekend was a profitable 15-10. All we can say is - it's about time. We hope we can keep it going.
In our first play, we thought that Justin Verlander could slow down the white hot Indians. Au contraire, The Indians abused Verlander to the tune of 8 earned runs in 4.2 inning and romped again. We still don't like Tomlin, but he was effective.
Our second play was on Jose Fernandez and the Marlins against the struggling Cubs. The numbers were clear, but we were still concerned about this one. We know the Cubs will get it going again. They're too good not to. In the perverse world of the baseball gods, it really would not have surprised me if the Cubs erupted against one of the best pitchers in baseball. However we stuck with our numbers, and Fernandez extended the Cubs misery for at least another day and made us look smart with a nice 6-1 W.
Our third play was a double dipper as we did what we've been doing all season. We backed Chris Sale and the under. Sale was great again, winning his league leading 13th. He threw 7 shutout innings before tiring and giving up 2 in the 8th. Marcus Stroman pitched well enough (4 R in 5 IP) to keep the game under 8.5. the Jays pen didn't screw it up, and get us a double W.
Our fourth play was on the National ML and we got a little lucky here. WASH ended a 7-game losing streak with a 3-2 win over the Brewers to avoid the sweep. WASH won despite being held without a hit into the 6th inning, and despite being outhit 11-4 by the Brewers. MIL stranded 9 baserunners and was 0 for 10 with runners in scoring position. Sometimes, you just get lucky.
Our final pick was our most questionable one - the Mariners ML. The game actually looked close on pape, and we probably should have passed, but we wanted a 4 PM play and this game looked like the best of the bunch. It looked good early with SEA leading 3-1 after 4, but the potent Cards finally got to James Paxton with 4 straight extra-base hits as the Cardinals erased Seattle's lead and never looked back on their way to an easy 11-6 W.
The lesson learned/reinforced here (nothing reinforces better than losing $) was that unless you have a rock solid reason for making a play, don't. We looked over our post on the STL/SEA game, and in hindsight, it wasn't very convincing. The conclusion could have been, and probably should have been - PASS.
On to today's card.
NYM @ WASH
Noah Syndergaard is having a Cy Young type season. He's 8-2 with 12 quality starts in his 14 outing as a starter. He's allowed more than 3 runs (4) just once all season. However, Syndergaard left his last start after just 6 innings with some soreness and discomfort in his elbow. An MRI revealed no damages but he is on anti-inflamatories. He was cleared to resume his normal routine Wednesday night but the Mets will likely be careful with him during this outing.
Joe Ross is having a solid season for the Nationals. He's 6-4 with 9 quality starts is his 13 legitimate starts, including his last 3. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 3 times this season.
Ross has decent numbers but Syndergaard's are elite. The difference in their metrics is particularly striking.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mets
|
11
|
10
|
27
|
6
|
81.8%
|
80.00%
|
1.20
|
3.16
|
3.63
|
3.98
|
0.245
|
0.282
|
Nationals
|
10
|
10
|
21
|
7
|
75.0%
|
76.60%
|
1.15
|
3.24
|
3.46
|
3.71
|
0.227
|
0.286
|
Both teams have excellent bullpens, and are very evenly matched. We'll give WASH a very slight edge based on metrics, but everything, including the metrics, is very close.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
-25.3
|
20
|
|
94
|
20
|
|
0.306
|
22
|
|
6.7
|
21
|
Nationals
|
-7.5
|
13
|
|
97
|
15
|
|
0.319
|
14
|
|
11.5
|
9
|
The Nationals have an above average offense, while the Mets are well below average. However, against righthanders, WASH (rank #15) isn't that much better than NY (rank #18).
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
3.3
|
17
|
Nationals
|
26.9
|
4
|
WASH is the better defensive edge.
With the exception of starting pitchers, the Nationals have every other advantage. They have the better offense, the better defense and the slightly better bullpen. The Mets however have the better starting pitcher. Ross has been good, but Syndergaard has been all world. Normally, I'd take a shot with Syndergaard, but I'm a little concerned about his elbow. I'm also concerned that the Mets might be overly cautious and have a fast hook with him tonight. With these pitchers and bullpens, I don't see either of these offenses doing much damage, so I'll pass on the side and look
PICK - UNDER 7.5 (-105)
CLEV @ ATL
Trevor Bauer is having an excellent season for the Indians he's 5-2 with 8 quality starts in his 11 outings as a starter (he missed a 9th by 1 out), including his last 6 starts. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs (4) just once since joining the CLEV rotation. In his last 4 starts, he's struck out 32 batters over 31.2 innings while allowing only 6 walks. He's pitched at least 7 innings in 5 straight starts. Bauer is finally starting to live up to the promise that caused the Indians to select him 3rd overall in the 2011 draft. He's inducing more ground balls, which has been crucial to cutting down on his homers -- which, along with walks, has always been his biggest problems. His 0.64 HR/9 and 2.88 BB/9 are both easily career-best rates.
John Gant has started just 3 games for the braves. He's 2-1, and has 1 quality start. at the offensively challenged NYM. He's allowed 13 hits and 6 earned runs in his 16.2 innings as a starter. He's also fanned 15, while walking 6.
Gants numbers are decent, although we have very limited data, but Bauer's are better and over a longer period of time.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Indians
|
11
|
11
|
15
|
7
|
68.2%
|
78.30%
|
1.18
|
3.28
|
3.82
|
3.95
|
0.231
|
0.278
|
Braves
|
11
|
16
|
14
|
10
|
58.3%
|
71.60%
|
1.32
|
4.23
|
4.26
|
4.14
|
0.243
|
0.320
|
When we compare these bullpens, The Indians are clearly better across the board.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
18.7
|
7
|
|
103
|
8
|
|
0.324
|
11
|
|
13.5
|
4
|
Braves
|
-95.9
|
30
|
|
72
|
30
|
|
0.279
|
30
|
|
1
|
29
|
This is a complete mismatch. CLEV is well above average, while ATL has the worst offense in baseball
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
17.1
|
7
|
Braves
|
15.1
|
9
|
Both teams are solid defensively. There's no real edge here.
The Indians are white hot right now and so is Trevor Bauer. I tried stepping in front of that train yesterday and got run over. Not this time. The Indians have the much better bullpen, the much better offense, and the better starting pitcher. This line has moved in the Braves direction, but I just don't see it. There's just no area where the Braves have the advantage.
PICK - CLEV - ML (-128)
CHI Cubs @ CIN
Jake Arrieta is having another great season for the Cubs. He's 11-2 with 10 quality starts in his 15 outings. He has allowed more than 3 earned run, just once, and has allowed 2 or less in 12. Walks have been more of an issue for Arrieta this season. Hehas now issued 4 walks in 5 of his starts this season. He walked 4-plus just once last year,
Dan Straily have pitched decent ball for the woeful Reds this season. He's 4-4 with 7 quality starts in his 13 outings. He's only allowed more than 3 earned run 3 times this season, but 2 of them have been in his last 2 starts.
Straily's been OK but Arrieta's simply been much better. Maybe not as good as last year, but still much better than Straily. His metrics are well over a full run better.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cubs
|
9
|
7
|
14
|
5
|
73.7%
|
73.50%
|
1.08
|
3.64
|
3.66
|
3.96
|
0.203
|
0.255
|
Reds
|
13
|
19
|
13
|
16
|
44.8%
|
68.80%
|
1.54
|
6.13
|
4.87
|
5.17
|
0.266
|
0.300
|
The Cubs bullpen has had some problems lately, but they're still much better than the Reds, who have, by a wide margin, the worst bullpen in baseball.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
37
|
3
|
|
108
|
4
|
|
0.334
|
5
|
|
18.1
|
2
|
Reds
|
-66.7
|
28
|
|
82
|
28
|
|
0.300
|
27
|
|
3.1
|
27
|
This is another mismatch. The Cubs have a potent offense, while the Reds are woeful offensively.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
47.2
|
2
|
Reds
|
8.6
|
13
|
The Reds are a mediocre defensively, while the Cubs are excellent.
The Cubs have been slumping. So what's the cure. IMO, a visit to CIN. Even if a Reds' starter tosses a good game, you still have a chance with that dreadful Reds pen. Unless Arrieta allows a ton of runs, the Cubs should win handily. The Cubs possess every advantage in this game. They have the much better starting pitcher, the better bullpen, the better offense and the better defense.
PICK - CHI Cubs RL (-155)
STL @ KC
After a brutal start to his 2016 season, Adam Wainwright has completely turned it around. He's 6-4, with 10 quality starts in his 15 outings, including his last 4 and 6 of his last 7. In his last 7 starts, Wainwright has allowed 36 hits, 3 HRs and just 14 earned runs in 46.1 IP, compiling a 1.04 WHIP and s.72 ERA during that span.
After starting the season in the KC bullpen, Danny Duffy has started 8 games with very mixed results. In his 3 May starts, Duffy allowed 10 hits and 5 earned runs, but only pitched 12,2 innings, averaging only 4.2 inning per start. Duffy looked like he was building some momentum with 3 quality starts to disappeared open June (and a streak of 4 consecutive walk-free outings, but his control and command have disappeared over his last 2 starts. In that span of 9.2 innings against the Mets and Tigers, Duffy has given up 8 hits, 4 HRs and 6 earned runs with 6 walks.
In this case, I think the numbers are misleading. Duffy is regressing and that 90.1% strand rate is way too high and just not sustainable. Expect continued regression. As for Wainwright, he's steadily improving and his 66.6% strand rate is abnormally low and should lead to further improvement as it normalizes.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cardinals
|
13
|
8
|
15
|
9
|
62.5%
|
74.30%
|
1.25
|
3.77
|
3.99
|
3.76
|
0.242
|
0.265
|
Royals
|
14
|
5
|
19
|
8
|
70.4%
|
81.90%
|
1.33
|
2.78
|
4.12
|
3.89
|
0.248
|
0.283
|
These two bullpens are both very good and pretty even. I'll give the Royals a slight edge but very slight slight, especially considering the metrics favor STL.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
31.4
|
4
|
|
112
|
2
|
|
0.337
|
4
|
|
12.3
|
7
|
Royals
|
-16
|
19
|
|
97
|
15
|
|
0.319
|
14
|
|
9.4
|
15
|
The Cardinal have a huge edge here. It's even bigger when you factor in that STL hits righties very well (rank #3) and KC doesn't (rank #23).
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
-2.9
|
21
|
Royals
|
13.8
|
10
|
The Royals are better defensively.
The Cards have the much better better O, a bullpen that is even with KC and a starting pitchers, who's been great for his last 7 starts, while the royals starter is regressing. At an underdog price
PICK - STL ML (+122)
TOR @ COL
Big edge to Gray, particularly the metrics. Additionally 37% of the hits Estrada has allowed over his last 6 starts have been HRS - not a good thing at Coors
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Blue Jays
|
8
|
17
|
20
|
10
|
66.7%
|
75.00%
|
1.26
|
4.13
|
4.11
|
4.02
|
0.243
|
0.309
|
Rockies
|
10
|
12
|
21
|
11
|
65.6%
|
69.80%
|
1.44
|
4.80
|
4.13
|
4.12
|
0.275
|
0.313
|
Neither bullpen is very good. Can't really give either an edge
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Blue Jays
|
4.6
|
9
|
|
103
|
8
|
|
0.328
|
7
|
|
11.5
|
8
|
Rockies
|
-14.1
|
16
|
|
97
|
15
|
|
0.344
|
2
|
|
9.7
|
14
|
Jays have most of the edges here
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Blue Jays
|
8.1
|
14
|
Rockies
|
16.6
|
8
|
COL is the better defensive team
COL has the better starting pitcher, the bullpens are close. TOR has the better O and COL the better D. I'll bet on the better pitcher
PICK COL ML (+112) and OVER 11 (-115)