For what it's worth, yesterday looked quite promising but a few surprises left us with a 5-4 mark on our posted plays. We were concerned about fading BALT at home, and sure enough TB took an early 3-0 lead, but BALT came roaring back and bit us in the ass. In Detroit we fully expected Salazar to pitch better than Zimmerman, but we didn't expect Zimmerman to be that awful either. He was. So while we cashed the side the total went way over. The long ball haunted Max Scherzer again and Zach Davies pitched just well enough for us to lose the side and the under.
On the plus side, PITT jumped on Tepesch early and held on for an 8-6 W. Tanaka wasn't particularly sharp for the Yankees, but once it got to the bullpens, that was all she wrote. As I mentioned earlier CLEV romped and the Mets jumped to an early lead and held on for the not so easy W. And Finally, David Price got hammered by the Rangers, but the Red Sox came all the way back and eked out a W @ TEX.
On to today's card. As I finalize a pick, I'll post it. Here's the first one.
TB @ BALT
Matt Andriese has started 7 games for the Devil Rays this season. He's 6-0 with 4 quality starts. In his 4 road starts, he's allowed 22 hits and 8 earned runs in 24.1 innings. He's definitely better at home (1.04 WHIP, 2.25 ERA) than on the road (1.23 WHIP, 3.46 ERA), However, the road numbers, while not nearly as good, aren't awful either.
Kevin Gausman hasn't been anywhere near as bad as his 0-5 record suggests. His 4.37 ERA is actually 5 points better than the American League starter average (that tells you something about the mediocre state of starting pitching today). He has 6 quality starts in his 12 outings, but he's allowed at least 4 earned runs in the other 6. He is much better at home (1.16 WHIP, 3.48 ERA) than on the road (1.51 WHIP, 5.11 ERA). Gausman's big velocity (94.8 mph average fastball) is a huge plus, as is his 62/18 K/BB. If he can find a way to keep the ball in the yard (12 HR in as many starts), Gausman has big upside.
Andriese has the better WHIP and ERA. He also doesn't give up the long ball. Gausman has the better metrics, but as mention is susceptible to the HR. Small edge to Gausman, based on the metrics.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rays
|
13
|
13
|
19
|
7
|
73.1%
|
79.10%
|
1.34
|
4.08
|
3.83
|
4.08
|
0.252
|
0.292
|
Orioles
|
19
|
7
|
26
|
10
|
72.2%
|
80.50%
|
1.32
|
3.11
|
3.85
|
4.08
|
0.245
|
0.298
|
There's not much difference between these two bullpens. The O's have the better W-L record and ERA, and did a good job again last night, so we'll give them a slight edge.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
-4.2
|
12
|
|
98
|
11
|
|
0.313
|
19
|
Orioles
|
31.7
|
3
|
|
109
|
3
|
|
0.338
|
3
|
Both of these offenses are well above average, but the O's are top 3. The edge goes to the Os. It should be noted that, while the O's rank #1 in HRs (113) and #2 in HR/FB (16%), the Rays rank #4 in HRs (101) and #6 in HR/FB (14.7%), and Gausman is prone to giving up HRs, while Andriese is not.
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
-11.8
|
23
|
Orioles
|
-17.9
|
25
|
Both teams have lousy defenses. Neither deserves to get an edge here. So we won't give them one.
This shapes up as a close game. The Os get a slight edge in the bullpen, which came through for them last night. The O's also have the better offense, but TB's HR ability makes them a dangerous matchup for Gausman. When we look at the two starting pitchers, Gausman has the better metrics, and finally, the O's have the 4th best home record in baseball, 28-13 (only KC, TEX and the Cubs are better). Last night, I mentioned that I was reluctant to bet again the O's at home. I did it anyway, and I paid the price. Not this time. I'm concerned about Gausman giving up HRs, but everything else leans BALT, not heavily, but enough for me.
PICK - BALT ML (-144)
MINN @ NYY
Ervin Santana's been incredibly inconsistent for the Twins this season. He's 2-7 with 6 quality starts in his 13 outings. However, he's also allowed 5 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts.
Michael Pineda ia also experiencing problems this season. he's 3-7 with 6 quality starts in his 14 outings, including 2 in his last 3 starts. He hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in his last 4 starts, and has now struck out at least 8 batters in 3 of his last 4 outings.
Santana has no real edge anywhere here, and Pineda's metrics are a full run better than Santana's.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Twins
|
13
|
14
|
11
|
11
|
50.0%
|
73.30%
|
1.44
|
4.67
|
3.69
|
4.19
|
0.276
|
0.331
|
Yankees
|
13
|
8
|
22
|
4
|
84.6%
|
72.50%
|
1.11
|
3.95
|
2.58
|
3.01
|
0.227
|
0.301
|
The Yankees have the best bullpen in baseball. The twins bullpen sucks. This is a huge edge for NY.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-24.4
|
21
|
|
90
|
21
|
|
0.307
|
22
|
Yankees
|
-31.2
|
23
|
|
89
|
24
|
|
0.306
|
23
|
Both offenses are pretty inept. The Twins rank a little higher but not enough to really give them an edge, as the Yankee have been hitting the ball well since their trop to COL.
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-28.7
|
29
|
Yankees
|
-19
|
27
|
Both teams are defensively weak. The Yanks rank a little higher, but not enough to give them an edge.
Based on the metrics, the Yankees have the better starting pitcher and the much better bullpen. The Twins don't really have any edge in this game. As for the total, The over is 16-1-2 in Minnesota's past 19 games (that you. As for the total, the over is tempting as well. The over is 16-1-2 in Minnesota's past 19 games (thank you Stephen Nover), and the Yankees have scored 41 runs in their last 7 games, an average of 5.9 runs per game. Considering how mediocre and inconsistent each of these starters has been, and how bad the Twins bullpen is (they've allowed the 2nd most runs (141) of any bullpen in baseball. Only the Reds are worse (196). There's enough for us to go to the well with the Yankees again today.
PICK - NYY - ML (-179) and OVER 9 (-105)
CLEV @ DET
Carlos Carrasco's season was interrupted by a stint on the 15 day DL for a strained left hamstring. He's 2-2 and has tossed 4 quality starts in his 7 legitimate outings (1 was cut short after 2.2 scoreless innings with the hamstring injury). Since returning from the DL, Carrasco has made 4 starts and in his last 2 (both quality starts), he allowed just 2 earned runs in each and went 6 and 7.1 innings in those outings.
Anibal Sanchez is having a horrible season. He started 11 games for the Tigers in April and May. He's 4-7 and posted just 1 quality start. He allowed at least 4 earned run 7 times. In those 11 starts, he allowed 66 hits, 14 HRs and 47 earned runs in 56.2 innings. He also walked 29. That's 95 baserunners in 56.2 innings. Sanchez has bounced back somewhat, since being demoted to the bullpen, working a 1.86 ERA across 9.2 innings in relief.
Carrasco's numbers are solid across the board. Sanchez's are awful across the board.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Indians
|
11
|
11
|
15
|
7
|
68.2%
|
78.70%
|
1.24
|
3.35
|
3.67
|
3.96
|
0.226
|
0.276
|
Tigers
|
10
|
8
|
21
|
8
|
72.4%
|
69.30%
|
1.40
|
4.57
|
3.78
|
3.93
|
0.269
|
0.325
|
These two bullpen are very close. We'll give CLEV a small edge based strand rate, WHIP and ERA
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
13.7
|
8
|
|
101
|
10
|
|
0.321
|
11
|
Tigers
|
12.8
|
9
|
|
107
|
6
|
|
0.332
|
6
|
Again, these two offenses are very close. DET gets a small edge.
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
18.4
|
7
|
Tigers
|
-21.9
|
28
|
The Indians are a very good defensive team. The Tigers are not. Big Edge CLEV
In this matchup, the Indians get a small edge in the bullpen and the Tigers get a small edge on the offensive side. The Indians also have the much better D. The key is the two starting pitchers. Carrasco has been decent, and based on his last 2 starts, appears to be rounding back into shape. Sanchez has been miserable as a starter and is battling Mike Pelfrey, yes, that Mike Pelfrey, for the final spot in the Tigers rotation. I'm not prepared to say that Sanchez has turned it around based on 9 innings as a reliever, so I'll go with the team with the better starting pitcher.
PICK - CLEV ML (-142)
CHI Cubs @ MIA
John Lackey is having a superb season. He's 7-3 with 12 quality starts in his 14 outings. Since May 1 Lackey's tossed 10 consecutive quality starts and he's allowed 2 earned runs on less in 8 of them.
Paul Clemens was recalled from Triple-A to join the Marlins rotation as a replacement for the struggling Justin Nicolino, who was optioned to the minors. He was 4-8 with a 5.51 ERA in 48 major league games with Houston in 2013 and 2014. Clemens has made 1 start for the Marlins this season v COL. He allowed 7 hits and 3 earned runs in 5 innings. He walked 3 and struck out 2. He also surrendered 3 solo HRs accounting for all 3 runs. Between the 7 hits and 3 walks, that totaled 10 baserunners in 5 innings. I'd have to conclude that Clemens was lucky that there weren't men on base when he gave up those homers.
As a more accurate basis for comparison, we are using Clemens' 2013-2014 seasons with HTN. It makes very little difference. This one looks to be a total mismatch.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cubs
|
9
|
7
|
14
|
5
|
73.7%
|
75.10%
|
1.21
|
3.63
|
3.66
|
3.95
|
0.205
|
0.254
|
Marlins
|
14
|
15
|
28
|
12
|
70.0%
|
76.50%
|
1.34
|
3.68
|
3.86
|
4.19
|
0.232
|
0.295
|
Both teams have decent bullpens, and it's close in most areas. The Cubs get the edge based on WHIP, metrics, BAA, BABIP, W-l record and Save %.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
37.9
|
2
|
|
108
|
5
|
|
0.335
|
5
|
Marlins
|
-12.1
|
14
|
|
97
|
16
|
|
0.318
|
14
|
On offense, the Marlins are mediocre, while the Cubs are outstanding.
Defenses
Team
|
DRAAf
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
48.5
|
2
|
Marlins
|
33.3
|
3
|
Both teams have excellent defenses, so there's no real edge here.
In this game the Cubs have pretty much every edge. They have the much better offense, the better bullpen and the better defense. However, the real mismatch is at starting pitcher. I fully expect the Cubs, in spite of their injuries, to light up Clemens, and I don't expect the Marlin to get much off Lackey. So with the best run differential in baseball (+2.26)
PICK - CHI Cubs RL (-120)
LAD @ PITT
Kenta Maesa is having a very good season for the Dodgers. He's 6-4 with 8 quality starts in his 14 outings. He has yet to allow more than 4 runs in a start and has and has only allowed 4 in three starts. If he has a weakness, it's that he doesn't pitch deep into games. He's averaging less than 6 innings per start.
Jeff Locke has been incredibly inconsistent for the Pirates this season. He's 6-5 with 8 quality starts in his 14 outings. However, the flip side of that coin is that he's also allowed at least 4 runs in 5 of his starts, and in 4 of them it was 6-7-8 and 11 earned runs. With Locke, it's usually a quality start or he gets hammered. The good news is that when Locke got hammered, it was on the road (1.64 WHIP, 7.36 ERA). At home he's much better (1.19 WHIP, 3.26 ERA).
The numbers say Maeda, but Locke is a totally different animal at home. This is a closer matchup than the numbers suggest.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Dodgers
|
16
|
12
|
21
|
12
|
63.6%
|
77.70%
|
1.06
|
3.00
|
3.55
|
3.96
|
0.197
|
0.241
|
Pirates
|
7
|
11
|
22
|
9
|
71.0%
|
72.40%
|
1.45
|
4.35
|
4.43
|
4.76
|
0.259
|
0.301
|
The Pirates don't have a good bullpen. The Dodgers do. Big Edge - LAD
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Dodgers
|
-33.8
|
25
|
|
90
|
21
|
|
0.301
|
26
|
Pirates
|
18.2
|
6
|
|
106
|
7
|
|
0.325
|
9
|
The Pirates are loaded, and the Dodgers are offensively challenged. Big edge Pirates
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Dodgers
|
23.4
|
6
|
Pirates
|
12.2
|
11
|
Both teams have above average defenses. It's close but the Dodgers rank a little higher.
The Dodgers have the clearly better bullpen and the Pirates have the much better offense. I think this game comes down to the a couple of things. First, I'm still not impressed by Jeffe Locke. But as much as I don't like him, I must concede that's he's been very good at home. And it's not like he's facing the "27 Yankees or even the 2016 Cubs. The Dodgers are a weak offensive team and it's quite possible he could have a good outing against them. I am impressed with Kenta Maeda, but other than the Giants, back in April, he really hasn't faced a team as loaded as the Pirates. It's also a little concerning that Maeda probably won't go deep. Second, if this game is close, the bullpens will decide it, and the Dodgers have the much better pen.
PICK - LAD ML (-136) and UNDER 8 (-120)
NYM @ ATL
You wouldn't know it by his 3-4 record, but Jacob deGrom is having a good season. He's tossed 9 quality starts in his 12 outings, and missed a 10th by 1 out. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs (4) just once. A lack of run support (4 runs scored) is the big reason he's lost 4 straight decisions after a 3-0 start.
Julio Teheran has completely turned his season around after a rough April, throwing quality starts in 7 of 10 outings in May and June, after tossing only 2 in his first 5, and bringing his ERA down from 4.60 to 2.66. His record's only 3-7, but such is your fate, when you're pitching for a really bad team like the Braves.
There's not much to delineate these two pitchers. deGroms has the slightly better metrics and allows slightly less HRs., but Teheran has a slightly better WHIP, ERA BAA, BABIP and strand rate. There's no real edge here.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mets
|
10
|
10
|
26
|
6
|
81.3%
|
80.30%
|
1.22
|
3.12
|
3.51
|
3.92
|
0.222
|
0.282
|
Braves
|
11
|
15
|
13
|
10
|
56.5%
|
71.20%
|
1.46
|
4.28
|
3.88
|
4.14
|
0.248
|
0.321
|
This one's not close. The Mets hold every edge.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
-19.3
|
18
|
|
96
|
17
|
|
0.308
|
21
|
Braves
|
-94.3
|
30
|
|
71
|
30
|
|
0.278
|
30
|
Again we have a clear winner here. The Mets are below average offensively, but the Braves have the worst offense in baseball.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
3.6
|
16
|
Braves
|
15.6
|
9
|
Defensively, the Mets are mediocre and the Braves are well above average.
The Mets hold almost every edge in this game. They have the much better bullpen and the better offense. And their starting pitcher, Jacob deGrom is every bit as good as Julio Teheran. I wanted to take the Braves, but other than their defense, I can't find a reason to do so. It's hard to bet on the Mets, they're not hitting particularly well and the Braves have given them plenty of trouble. However, I still believe they're much better than the Braves. As far as the total is concerned, I think these 2 pitchers keep these two weak offenses in check.
PICK - NYM - ML (-140) and UNDER 7.5
PHIL @ SF
No real analysis on this one.
1. Bumgarner's the much better startimng pitcher
2. SF has the slightly better pen.
3. SF has the much better offense.
I'll take a shot
PICK - SF RL (-130)