The Padres erased an early deficit and got some excellent bullpen work as they topped the Reds for a free play winner. I’ll go with a short home dog as the Friday comp.
ASTROS (Keuchel) at ROYALS (VOLQUEZ)
Take: ROYALS +105
Not the most detailed analysis here, but this really came down to just a couple of key components for me, so anything additional would merely be extraneous info.
Houston is coming on strong, but they’re going to have to show me they can get it done on the road. Meanwhile, the Royals have been a disaster away from KC, but at Kauffman this team is still lights out, with a 25-8 record. Just on that alone, the Royals should pretty much not be home dogs against anybody.
The pitching matchup tonight is pretty close, but just as with the team data, we have a pretty significant H/R split for both Dallas Keuchel and Edinson Volquez. Keuchel has better overall data, but when just checking him as a visitor against Volquez at home, it’s the KC righty that wins the duel. Kansas City, as is usually the case, owns the better bullpen.
The one red flag for me is the Astros being on a 5-0 current run. But with the KC home ledger plus the way they’ve hit southpaws at home, I have to grab the small plus here with the Royals.
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