For what it's worth, yesterday turned out to another subpar day as we finished 5-7. It was also a very strange day with lots of unbelievable twists and turns.
The Red Sox successfully managed to turn an 8-4 lead after 7 innings into a 10-9 loss as their normally reliable pen imploded. We lost our under early as Stroman got hammered, but it's inconceivable to me, that you blow a 4 run lead in 2 innings, costing us the ML as well. Not relevant to us, since we didn't bet the game, but even worse, the White Sox pen managed to turn a 7-1 lead, entering the bottom of the 9th, into an 8-7 loss. What is wrong with these bullpens. They're paid millions and they just totally suck.
The Cubs and Phillies never got close to the total, easily cashing our UNDER play. And the Indians jumped all over Jimenez easily covering our ML and RL bets.
Somehow, the Marlins managed to lose again to the Braves and the fearsome Adam Blair. How in the hell do you only score 2 runs off Adam Blair? We didn't even think that was possible. And how do you allow the worst offense in baseball to score 7 runs? An inexplicable ML and RL loss.
Fortunately, the Giants came through for us routing the Rockies 10-5 in COL.
Next came the biggest travesty of the day as idiot umpire Adam Hatari decides to interject himself into the game by ejecting the Mets best chance to win the game, starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard. The one thing I truly hate is when officials determine outcomes. I've watched that replay a dozen times. It really didn't look intentional. If it was, why didn't he actually hit the guy? that pitch really didn't come that close. Further, if that clown, Hatari, really thought it was intentional, he should have issued a warning - one more and you're gone. But to arbitrarily eject a starting pitcher, that the fans paid to see pitch, in the 3rd inning of a 0-0 game, is a moronic overreaction and should be punished. How stupid can you be?
Finally, Arizona jumped all over Cesar Vargas and then, somehow managed to turn a rout into a close 1 run game. We cashed the ML, but should have had the RL too
So, we'll give our "Imploding Bullpen Awards" to the Sox pens, both Red and White, for successfully snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and an honorable mention to the Diamondback relievers for almost doing the same. And, we'll give our "Bozo the Clown" award to home plate umpire Adam Hatari for that absolutely stupid and uncalled for ejection.
On to today's card.
BOS @ TOR
After a very inconsistent and un Price like start to the season, David Price finally appears to have straightened things out as he posted his 3rd consecutive quality start in his last outing. He's also fanned 23 in 21 innings over that span. For the season Price has now tossed 6 quality starts in his 10 outings.
The 41 year old R. A. Dickey doesn't have much left. Yes, he's capable of an occasional strong performance, and he does have 4 quality starts among his 10 outings. Hoever he just can't be relied on. The veteran knuckleballer continues to have problems with the long ball. Dickey has always been home-run prone, but this year's struggles suggest his days as a legitimate major league starter might be behind him for good.
There's really nothing to like about Dickey's performance this season. And as for Price, his metrics indicate that his bloated ERA will drop. His abnormally low strand rate suggests the same thing will happen as it normalizes.
Bullpens:
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Red Sox
|
6
|
7
|
12
|
3
|
80.0%
|
25
|
76.50%
|
1.24
|
3.04
|
3.38
|
3.79
|
0.219
|
0.296
|
Blue Jays
|
4
|
13
|
13
|
7
|
65.0%
|
17
|
76.70%
|
1.35
|
3.91
|
3.55
|
4.06
|
0.256
|
0.301
|
It hard to believe, after watching yesterday's major meltdown, but the Red Sox have pretty much every edge.
Offenses:
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Red Sox
|
61.4
|
!
|
129
|
1
|
0.365
|
1
|
Blue Jays
|
-11.6
|
15
|
96
|
15
|
0.314
|
16
|
The Red Sox have the best offense in baseball, while the Jays are average. BOS hits righties hard (#2), but TOR is better v lefties (#4).
We have the clearly superior offense, in a hitter's park, with what should be a much better bullpen, and a starting pitcher, Price, who is simply much better than, his opponent, Dickey. I see no advantage for TOR in this matchup. I was surprised that TOR won yesterday, but I don't think it happens again.
PICK - BOS ML (-136)
BALT @ CLEV
Chris Tillman.s been on an excellent run for the Orioles. In his last start, Tillman allowed just 2 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks with 5 strikeouts over 7 innings in a no-decision against Houston. That outing was his 7th consecutive quality start, and he has 51 strikeouts in just 46.1 innings in that span.
Mike Clevinger's major league career, on the other hand, has gotten off to rocky start. His 2 starts have resulted in 12 hits and 10 earned runs over 10.1 innings. He has 9 strikeouts, but he's also walked 4 and given up 3 HRs.
Starting Pitchers:
This looks like a mismatch and there's no real reason to believe that the Os won't get to Clevinger.
Bullpens:
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Orioles
|
12
|
4
|
16
|
8
|
66.7%
|
22
|
83.20%
|
1.24
|
2.60
|
3.66
|
3.89
|
0.234
|
0.289
|
Indians
|
5
|
8
|
12
|
4
|
75.0%
|
18
|
76.90%
|
1.29
|
3.53
|
3.83
|
4.12
|
0.226
|
0.274
|
CLEV has the better save rate, but BALT holds every other edge. And today, I expect to see the CLEV pen early and often, as Clevinger hasn't come close to going a full 6 innings yet.
Offenses.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
10.4
|
7
|
107
|
6
|
0.332
|
5
|
Indians
|
5.5
|
10
|
99
|
13
|
0.315
|
14
|
Both of these offenses are above average, but the Orioles have the slightly better numbers. Both also hit righties well - BALT #6, CLEV #7.
The Orioles have the better bullpen and a little better offense, but the big mismatch is at starting pitcher. I think the Orioles tee off on Clevinger, while Tillman keeps the Indians offense in check. I expect BALT to win comfortably.
PICK - BALT ML (-116)
CIN @ MIL
Considering just how bad the Red are, Brandon Finnegan's having a pretty good season. He's thrown 5 quality starts in his 1o outings, and has allowed more than 3 earned run just once. However, Finnegan continues to tempt fate with his walks. He now has 27 in 56.2 innings, a 4.3 BB/9 that ranks sixth-worst among the 52 qualified National League starters.
Jimmy Nelson is another pitchers having a good season for a bad baseball team. In his last start, Nelson went 6 innings allowing 1 run on 4 hits and 3 walks while striking out 8 in a no-decision against the Braves. It was his 3rd consecutive quality start and 7th in his 10 outings.
Starting Pitchers
According to the numbers, Nelson has the edge pretty much across the board. Nelson also usually goes deeper than Finnegan.
Bullpens:
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Reds
|
7
|
14
|
4
|
10
|
28.6%
|
18
|
66.10%
|
1.65
|
6.49
|
4.67
|
5.24
|
0.266
|
0.291
|
Brewers
|
8
|
4
|
14
|
6
|
70.0%
|
20
|
84.20%
|
1.47
|
3.72
|
4.18
|
4.48
|
0.256
|
0.297
|
The Brewers bullpen is no prize and probably ranks in the bottom 5 in baseball, but the Red are noticeably worse. The Reds have the absolute worst bullpen in baseball.
Offense:
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Reds
|
-58.3
|
29
|
73
|
28
|
0.287
|
27
|
Brewers
|
-19.4
|
22
|
89
|
22
|
0.311
|
18
|
Again, the Brewers aren't good, they're well below average, but the Reds are much worse.
What we have here are two good pitchers opposing two weak offenses and a relatively high (9) total. The suggests an under play to me, but neither team has a reliable bullpen and that makes and under play dicey. The number says the Brewers are better. not good - just better, across the board.
PICK - MIL ML (-159) and UNDER 9
CHI WS @ KC
In his last start, Chris Sale (9-1) allowed 6 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks with 7 strikeouts and lasted just 3.1 innings in a loss against Cleveland. Sale was having a perfect season, but was bound to slip up at some point. That outing was the first time that he failed to go at least 5 innings or hold an opponent to 3 runs or fewer, and just the 2nd time an opponent has scored more than 1 run off him since April 9. Sale was still nasty -- he drew nine swinging strikes in striking out seven -- but he was wild all day and caught too much of the plate when he could find it.
Edinson Volquez is having a solid but inconsistent season for the Royals. He has tossed 6 quality starts in his 10 outings, but he's alternated quality starts with starts in which he's allowed 4 or more runs, going back to his fourth start of the season.
Starting Pitchers:
There's no question who the better pitcher is here. It's Chris Sale by a wide margin.
Bullpens:
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
White Sox
|
5
|
5
|
13
|
7
|
65.0%
|
34
|
78.20%
|
1.12
|
2.61
|
3.62
|
3.77
|
0.209
|
0.257
|
Royals
|
9
|
2
|
13
|
5
|
72.2%
|
29
|
81.70%
|
1.18
|
2.49
|
3.30
|
3.64
|
0.227
|
0.296
|
There's also no question which team has the better bullpen, it 's clearly the Royals, and yesterday's meltdown just further confirms it.
Offenses:
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
White Sox
|
-15.6
|
19
|
94
|
16
|
0.311
|
18
|
Royals
|
-16.3
|
21
|
92
|
19
|
0.308
|
22
|
Both teams are offensively challenged, the Royals probably a little more so because they're even worse against lefties (#24)
This pick is pretty simple. I have an elite starting pitcher coming off his only bad outing of the season against an offensive challenged opponent. And I'll hope it's decided before the bullpens get involved.
PICK - CHI WS ML (-146)
PHIL @ CHI C
Vincent Velasquez is 5-1 and having a very good season for the surprising Phillies. He's tossed 4 quality starts in his 9 outings and has allowed more than 3 earned runs only twice. His lack of command has occasionally gotten him into trouble and has prevented him from going deeper into games.
In his last start, John Lackey allowed 3 runs on 4 hits and 1 walk with 9 strikeouts over 7 innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals. Lackey now has 5 quality starts in a row and 7 in his last 8 outings. The home run ball has been his main weakness; he has allowed just 45 hits and 12 walks in 61.1 innings, but 6 HRs in his 9 starts.
These two pitchers are both good and pretty evenly matched.
Bullpens:
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Phillies
|
9
|
5
|
19
|
5
|
79.2%
|
35
|
81.70%
|
1.32
|
3.81
|
3.68
|
3.99
|
0.235
|
0.278
|
Cubs
|
6
|
4
|
9
|
3
|
75.0%
|
21
|
77.50%
|
1.19
|
3.09
|
3.48
|
3.80
|
0.193
|
0.239
|
The Phillies have a solid bullpen, but based on WHIP, ERA and advanced metrics, the Cubs have a better one.
Offense:
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Phillies
|
-52.3
|
28
|
75
|
27
|
0.286
|
28
|
Cubs
|
36.8
|
4
|
113
|
4
|
0.342
|
4
|
The Cubs are loaded. The Phillies are shooting blanks. This is a major mismatch.
If you're betting on offense unload on the Cubs. As for me, just like yesterday, I'm betting on pitching.
PICK - PHIL @ CHI Cubs UNDER 9.5 (-125)
DET @ OAK
Mike Pelfrey continues to get hammered. His 1.81WHIP is the second-worst among the 104 qualifying starting pitchers. He's given up 67 hits and 34 earned runs in 47 inning. With Shane Greene (finger) due to return from his rehab assignment in the near future, Pelfrey appears to be the odd-man out after his atrocious start to 2016.
Rich Hill is riding a 4-game winning streak, and has allowed just a measly 5 runs over 25.2 innings in that span. For the season he's thrown 7 quality starts in his 10 outings. Control continues to be the key to Hill's success, as he has pitched 15 scoreless frames in his 2 walk-free starts this season.
Starting Pitchers:
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Pelfrey
|
1.81
|
5.55
|
5.05
|
4.82
|
4.98
|
3.45
|
1.44
|
1.91
|
0.338
|
0.352
|
71.80%
|
Hill
|
1.11
|
2.18
|
3.48
|
3.67
|
10.14
|
3.28
|
3.1
|
0.31
|
0.205
|
0.287
|
79.20%
|
This is a total and complete mismatch. Even in his weakest area, walks, Hill is better than Pelfrey.
Bullpens:
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Tigers
|
5
|
5
|
15
|
4
|
78.9%
|
26
|
72.60%
|
1.34
|
4.10
|
3.64
|
3.86
|
0.263
|
0.310
|
Athletics
|
7
|
4
|
13
|
5
|
72.2%
|
20
|
71.10%
|
1.27
|
4.29
|
3.33
|
3.70
|
0.253
|
0.303
|
These two bullpens are very close. We'' give a slight edge to OAK based on their better advanced metrics.
Offenses:
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Tigers
|
7
|
8
|
107
|
6
|
0.329
|
8
|
Athletics
|
-27.1
|
24
|
86
|
25
|
0.294
|
26
|
On paper the Tigers are the much better hitting team, but they have real problems with lefties. They rank #3 v righties but #29 v lefties. The A's are simply offensively challenge.
The Tigers do have the better offense, but that is mitigated by their inability to hit lefties. The bullpens are very close. The big difference in this game is the two starting pitchers. Hill's been excellent and Pelfrey sucks. So I'll continue doing what I always do with Pelfrey - fade him.
PICK - OAK ML (-152)
SD @ ARIZ
Drew Pomerantz has 6 quality starts in his 9 outings. He's allowed less than 3 runs in all 9, and less than 2 in 8 of the 9.
Archie Bradley's made 2 starts since being recalled. He's allowed 14 hits and 9 earned runs in 10.1 innings
Starting Pitchers:
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Pomerantz
|
1.04
|
1.7
|
3.81
|
3.68
|
10.19
|
4.25
|
2.4
|
0.51
|
0.16
|
0.218
|
84.70%
|
Bradley
|
2.03
|
7.84
|
5.41
|
5.22
|
5.23
|
6.1
|
0.86
|
0.87
|
31.80%
|
#####
|
61.20%
|
Another major mismatch
Bullpens:
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Padres
|
8
|
7
|
12
|
8
|
60.0%
|
27
|
72.40%
|
1.42
|
4.40
|
3.98
|
4.36
|
0.247
|
0.299
|
Diamondbacks
|
7
|
8
|
10
|
3
|
76.9%
|
17
|
71.60%
|
1.42
|
4.22
|
3.91
|
4.18
|
0.261
|
0.320
|
There's really no definitive edge for either team. Both pens are mediocre.
Offenses:
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Padres
|
-49
|
27
|
72
|
29
|
0.275
|
29
|
Diamondbacks
|
6
|
9
|
102
|
10
|
0.332
|
5
|
No doubt which unit is better here. ARIZ is a top 10 offense, SD is a bottom 5 offense.
If you're betting on offense, ARIZ is the pick. However I bet pitching and Drew Pomerantz is pithing great, while Bradley has shown me nothing.
PICK - SD ML (-113)
SF @ COL
Starting Pitchers:
The metrics say Rusin is better than his WHIP and ERA indicate, but Cueto is till better.
Bullpens:
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Giants
|
8
|
4
|
14
|
6
|
70.0%
|
27
|
71.50%
|
1.30
|
4.00
|
3.71
|
4.00
|
0.253
|
0.297
|
Rockies
|
7
|
5
|
13
|
5
|
72.2%
|
23
|
70.60%
|
1.30
|
4.12
|
3.74
|
3.98
|
0.252
|
0.302
|
The two bullpens are as closely matched as could be. There's no edge here for either.
Offenses:
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Giants
|
2.9
|
11
|
103
|
9
|
0.316
|
12
|
Rockies
|
-31
|
26
|
89
|
22
|
0.331
|
7
|
The Giants do a much better job at run creation.
I get the better offense and the better starting pitcher.
PICK - SF ML (-152)