For what it's worth, yesterday turned out to be another totally mediocre day. Our posted plays again finished a decidedly mediocre 3-3.
Our afternoon plays did great. PITT & MIA both won easily. We don't know why we didn't add the OVER in the PITT game? Oh well, a 2-0 afternoon had us looking good
The evening games were a different story. STL lost a tough 2-1 game to WASH. Leake pitched well as we expected, but Ross was just a little better (we didn't expect that). Again, we should have bet the under as well??. ATL took an early 2-0 lead, but lost it and once they were down 4-2, we knew it was over. Kudos to Skyler2580 - he told me that he couldn't bet on the Braves and he was right not to. My hat's off to you man! The game should have been a pass. Fortunately, we at least got a push on the total. The Orioles couldn't get a W for us in our last game, but the UNDER cashed.
Lesson of the day: Be careful about betting on bad teams. More often than not, they'll find a way to screw it up.
On to today's card.
We have one afternoon game. There will be no big write up for this one
PHIL @ CHI
There is no question who has the better starting pitcher.
Adam Morgan has produced 2 quality starts in his 5 outings, but they were both against the Braves and their 30th ranked offense. In his other 3 outings, he's been shelled to the tune of 19 hits and 13 earned runs in 12.2 innings, including 8 hits and 7 earned runs allowed in 3.2 innings v offensively challenged CIN.
Jon Lester allowed 5 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks while striking out 1 over 2.2 innings to take the loss at the Giants. It was his worst start of the season and the first time this season that he's allowed more than t3 runs in an outing. I expect a bounce back form Lester.
Starting Pitchers
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Phillies
|
9
|
5
|
19
|
5
|
79.2%
|
35
|
81.70%
|
1.32
|
3.81
|
3.68
|
3.99
|
0.235
|
0.278
|
Cubs
|
6
|
4
|
9
|
3
|
75.0%
|
21
|
77.50%
|
1.19
|
3.09
|
3.48
|
3.80
|
0.193
|
0.239
|
This is actually closer, in that the the Phils have a slightly better save and strand rate, but the Cubs have the better WHIP, ERA, metrics, BAA and BABIP. Phils are decent but the Cubs are better.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Phillies
|
-52.3
|
28
|
75
|
27
|
0.286
|
28
|
Cubs
|
36.8
|
4
|
113
|
4
|
0.342
|
4
|
The Cubs are a powerhouse and PHIL is a bottom 5 offense. CUBS in a landslide
I don't think much of Adam Morgan, and I'm not impressed by 2 good outing v ATL. Hell, ATL made Wily Peralta look decent yesterday. I am still very impressed with Jon Lester andI believe he bounces back big time. I see no reason the potent Cubs O doesn't light up Morgan. Yes, it'a always risky betting a RL, but in this case, I'll take the risk
PICK - CHI CUBS RL (-130)
STL @ WASH
Jaime Garcia has started 9 games for the Cardinals. He's produced 3 quality starts. He's also allowed 3 run or less in 6 of his outings. Coming into his last start, Garcia had his best stretch of the season, allowing on 3 runs in 19 innings in his previous 3 starts.
Max Scherzer has started 10 games for Washington and he's tossed 7 quality starts, including 3 in his last 3 outing and 5 in his last 6.
Scherzer's 1.9 HR/9 rate remains unsightly and is the primary driver behind his 3.80 ERA, but otherwise his numbers are exactly what everyone expected coming into the season. Garcia's having a decent season but Scherzer's is better.
When we look at the two bullpens, we find that both are very good and pretty evenly matched.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cardinals
|
8
|
3
|
9
|
3
|
75.0%
|
13
|
75.80%
|
1.23
|
3.70
|
3.18
|
3.42
|
0.225
|
0.279
|
Nationals
|
6
|
6
|
14
|
4
|
77.8%
|
25
|
82.30%
|
1.06
|
2.55
|
3.21
|
3.66
|
0.209
|
0.269
|
The Cardinals have the better W-L record and Slightly better xFIP, while WASH has the better strand rate, WHIP ERA and BAA. We'll give WASH the edge.
When we compare these two offenses, there's no question which one is better.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
37.6
|
2
|
117
|
3
|
0.345
|
2
|
Nationals
|
-12.2
|
16
|
93
|
18
|
0.314
|
16
|
Wahington's offense is mediocre, and St. Louis' is elite. The Cards rank #1 v righthanders, but the NATS hit lefties much better (#6) than righties (#19).
The two bullpens are both very good and I would be comfortable with either in a late game situation, but the Nats are a little better The big difference in the two offenses is somewhat mitigated by the fact that WASH hits lefties much better. The big difference here is the starting pitching. Garcia's good, but Scherzer's elite.
PICK - WASH ML (-159)
MIA @ ATL
Adam Conley is coming off his worst start of the season. He couldn't put the ball where he wanted it in a loss to the Nationals, surrendering 6 runs on 7 hits and 7 walks over 5.1 innings while striking out 2. Just 58 of his 106 pitches went for strikes, and those that did find the zone got turned around in a hurry by Nats' hitters. It was the first time, in his 9 outings , that Conley had allowed more than 4 earned runs.
Williams Perez has started 8 games for the woeful Braves. He has tossed 2 quality starts in his last 3 outings, as opposed to his 1st 3 outings where he couldn't get out of the 4th inning in any of them. However, both quality starts were against the offensively challenged Phillies. In his 4 other outings, Perez has allowed 24 hits and 13 earned runs in 18.1 innings.
When we look at the two bullpens, neither is particularly good.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Marlins
|
8
|
7
|
19
|
6
|
76.0%
|
29
|
77.80%
|
1.39
|
3.37
|
4.00
|
4.31
|
0.240
|
0.300
|
Braves
|
4
|
13
|
8
|
7
|
53.3%
|
18
|
70.70%
|
1.49
|
4.48
|
3.69
|
4.11
|
0.257
|
0.336
|
ATL has the better metrics, while MIA has every other edge. It's close but we'll give the lean to MIA.
When we compare the offenses, it's obvious who has the better offense.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Marlins
|
-0.4
|
13
|
102
|
10
|
0.325
|
10
|
Braves
|
-75
|
30
|
67
|
30
|
0.272
|
30
|
MIA has an offense that's well above average, and ATL has the worst offense in the league.
MIA has the much more potent offense and appears to be as good as, or a little better than, ATL in the bullpen. The two starting pitchers appear close on paper, but Perez's numbers look better because of those 2 quality starts v PHIL. By the same token, the one horrendous start by Conley, in his last outing makes his numbers look much worse. Conley's ERA jumped three-quarters of a run, from 3.40 to 4.15, and his WHIP rose from 1.28 to 1.43 after that awful outing. I fully expect Conley to bounce back and with the much better offense backing him...
PICK - MIA ML (-124)
PITT @ TEX
Jonathan Niese tossed his 3rd straight quality start in his last outings. He threw 64 of 97 pitches for strikes, and recorded first-pitch strikes on 16 of 26 hitters. That makes a total of 5 quality starts in his 9 outings this season. Niese, however, has given up 11 HRs in those 9 starts.
Cole Hamels sits at 5-0 and is having a superb season for the Rangers. He's tossed 6 quality starts in his 9 outings and has allowed more than 3 run (4) just once. After allowing 3 earned runs in both of his previous 2 outings, he allowed only 1 in his last start, which was the 4th time he's done that this season.
Niese has been solid, but Hamels has been spectacular.
When we look at these two bullpens, we find that neither is particularly good, but they are pretty evenly matched.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Pirates
|
6
|
5
|
18
|
4
|
81.8%
|
24
|
73.60%
|
1.43
|
4.14
|
4.33
|
4.73
|
0.253
|
0.292
|
Rangers
|
9
|
11
|
16
|
7
|
69.6%
|
37
|
72.80%
|
1.51
|
5.32
|
4.11
|
4.49
|
0.279
|
0.310
|
TEX has the better metrics, by a small margin, but PITT has the better W-L record, the better save rate and better ERA and WHIP. We'll give PITT a small edge.
When we compare these two offense, there is a big difference.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Pirates
|
38.1
|
2
|
118
|
2
|
0.344
|
3
|
Rangers
|
-14
|
17
|
92
|
19
|
0.315
|
14
|
Texas is, at best, average on offense, and worse than that against lefties. PITT is loaded. They're a top 3 offense and actually rank #1 v lefties.
The PITT offense is loaded and that makes them very dangerous, particularly against lefthanders. To make matters worse, the TEX ballpark is one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league. However, Cole Hamels is elite and is familiar with this Pirates team, after all his seasons in PHIL. This pick comes down to good pitching v good hitting. I don't like betting against a potent offense like PITT's, in a hitter friendly venue, but I will do so with an elite pitcher, and that's what Hamels is, IMO.
PICK - TEX ML (-133)
SF @ COL
After an absolutely brutal start to the season, Matt Cain has now held his opponents to 4 runs in his last 21 innings over his last 3 starts. It should be noted that those opponents wew not the PHIL, ATL, CIN, SD caliber offenses, but rather the Cubs, Diamondbacks and Blue Jay in Toronto. All are decent offense. The only question here is can Cain pitch effectively at Coors. The Rockies got to him for 6 hits and 6 earned runs in 4.2 innings at Coors in his 2nd start, when he wasn't pitching well, and in a game last year as well. However, back in 2013, the last time Cain was really healthy, he did make 2 dtarts at Coors and only allowed 2 earned runs total. So he has pitched effectively at Coors.
Tyler Chatwood has pitched admirably for the Rockies this season. However, he is much better on the road. The discrepancy is striking. On the road, Chatwood has allowed 23 hits and only 2 earned runs in 33.2 innings. At Coors, he's allowed 30 hits and 17 earned runs in just 23 innings. His road ERA is o.83, while hishome ERA is 6.85. His road WHIP is 0.89, while his home WHIP is 1.70. That's quite a discrepancy.
The numbers say Chatwood's the better pitchers, but not at Coors. Cain's numbers also say over his last 3 starts, Cain's been as good or better.
When we look at these two bullpens, they're almost identical.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Giants
|
8
|
4
|
14
|
6
|
70.0%
|
27
|
71.50%
|
1.30
|
4.00
|
3.71
|
4.00
|
0.253
|
0.297
|
Rockies
|
7
|
5
|
13
|
5
|
72.2%
|
23
|
70.60%
|
1.30
|
4.12
|
3.74
|
3.98
|
0.252
|
0.302
|
SF has a slightly better W-L record, but that's about it. The is no significant edge to be found.
When we look at these two offenses, we find that one is clearly better.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Giants
|
2.9
|
11
|
103
|
9
|
0.316
|
12
|
Rockies
|
-31
|
26
|
89
|
22
|
0.331
|
7
|
SF is an above average offense with big edges in run creation. COL is a below average offense.
Coors is the most hitter friendly ballpark in baseball and SF is the more potent offensive team. The bullpens are dead even. It comes down to the the two starting pitchers. I'm not sure what Cain will do tonight, but I know he has pitched effective there in the past. Chatwood's number clearly show he struggles at Coors. If Cain pitches well, backed by the superior offense, SF wins. If neither Cain or Chatwood pitch well and it becomes a shootout, SF should still win.
PICK - SF ML (+132)
SD @ ARIZ
Starting Pitcher
Edge ARIZ
Bullpen
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Padres
|
8
|
7
|
12
|
8
|
60.0%
|
27
|
72.40%
|
1.42
|
4.40
|
3.98
|
4.36
|
0.247
|
0.299
|
Diamondbacks
|
7
|
8
|
10
|
3
|
76.9%
|
17
|
71.60%
|
1.42
|
4.22
|
3.91
|
4.18
|
0.261
|
0.320
|
Edge - ARIZ
Offense
Padres
|
-49
|
27
|
72
|
29
|
0.275
|
29
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Diamondbacks
|
6
|
9
|
102
|
10
|
0.332
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge ARIZ
PICK - ARIZ ML -164
HTN @ LAA
Starting Pitchers
Edge - HTN
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Astros
|
6
|
8
|
11
|
6
|
64.7%
|
31
|
73.50%
|
1.10
|
3.53
|
2.65
|
2.96
|
0.230
|
0.294
|
Angels
|
8
|
7
|
13
|
5
|
72.2%
|
31
|
73.70%
|
1.26
|
3.81
|
4.05
|
4.50
|
0.239
|
0.279
|
Edge: Very small but HTN
Offense
Astros
|
-15.7
|
20
|
94
|
16
|
0.310
|
20
|
Angels
|
-10.6
|
14
|
99
|
13
|
0.309
|
21
|
Angels
PICK: HTN ML (-110)
MINN @ SEA
Edge SEA
Bullpen
Twins
|
6
|
12
|
4
|
9
|
30.8%
|
10
|
75.90%
|
1.47
|
4.62
|
3.55
|
4.02
|
0.281
|
0.338
|
Mariners
|
10
|
4
|
13
|
9
|
59.1%
|
32
|
81.90%
|
1.04
|
2.62
|
3.08
|
3.58
|
0.192
|
0.245
|
Edge - SEA
Twins
|
-27.2
|
25
|
83
|
26
|
0.296
|
25
|
Mariners
|
23
|
5
|
112
|
5
|
0.329
|
8
|
Edge SEA RL (+105)