For what it's worth, yesterday turned out to be a totally mediocre day. Our posted plays finished a decidedly mediocre 5-5.
Our afternoon plays did OK. Steven Matz and the Mets got us off to a great start with a 2-0 shutout of the Nationals as we cashed both the ML and UNDER.
The Phillies continued our run with a decisive win over the Tigers, and also ended it, by scoring too many runs. The Phillies score too many runs??? Who'd have guessed it? We cashed on ML play but lost our UNDER.
Somehow the Cubs with Arrieta managed to turn a 6-2 lead into a 9-8 nail biter. We got the ML but lost the RL as the Cards almost came all the way back.
The Indians and White Sox managed to stay UNDER 7.5 (barely) to cash another ticket for us.
The Padres tied the Giant late and went to extra innings, but couldn't get the W, giving us a ML loss, and completing our afternoon at 5-3.
We was initially inclined to pass on the evening games, as nothing jumped out at us, and considering how we ended up losing our Cubs RL play, our PHIL/DET Under play and our SD ML play, we should have seen bad stuff coming down the pike. But no, we were smarter than that, or dumber as it turned out, so we selected two games we liked a little, and threw caution to the wind figuring we'd at least get one of the two. Bad figuring - should have quit at 5-3.
Ivan Nova reverted to the mediocre Ivan Nova we've seen for the last several years and the Yanks squandered a bases loaded opportunity to break the game wide open, with less than 2 early and never really threatened again sending our Yankee ML pick down in flames.
In our other game, Rubby De La Rosa, another pitcher we don't really trust, and the Diamondbacks squandered an early 3-0 lead and managed to lose 5-4, for another ML loss, dropping us to 5-5 for the day. At least we were smart enough to accept a small loss and not chase on the 10 PM games, neither of which we liked.
On to today's small card.
ARIZ @ PITT
Patrick Corbin has quietly pitched well for the Diamondbacks this season. In his 9 outings, Corbin has tossed 5 quality starts, including 3 in his last 3 starts. However, he did have his worst start of the season against these Pirates last month, when he allowed 7 hits (3 Hrs) and 5 runs (4 earned) in 6 innings.
Gerrit Cole is having his typical Gerrit Cole season for the Prates. In his 8 outing Cole has produced 6 quality starts, including his last 3. He's allowed 3 or less runs in 7 of his 8 outings and 2 or less in 6.
Both Corbin and Cole have pitched well, but Cole has been a little better pretty much across the board.
When we look at these two bullpens, we find they are both good and very evenly matched
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Diamondbacks
|
7
|
8
|
10
|
3
|
76.9%
|
17
|
71.60%
|
1.42
|
4.22
|
3.91
|
4.18
|
0.261
|
0.320
|
Pirates
|
6
|
5
|
18
|
4
|
81.8%
|
24
|
73.60%
|
1.43
|
4.14
|
4.33
|
4.73
|
0.253
|
0.292
|
The Pirates hold a small edge in W-L record, save rate, strand rate, and BABIP, while the Diamondbacks have the better metrics. It's really too close to call.
When we look at these two offenses will find that they are both very potent.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Diamondbacks
|
6
|
9
|
102
|
10
|
0.332
|
5
|
Pirates
|
38.1
|
2
|
118
|
2
|
0.344
|
3
|
Again, the edge is small, but PITT is a top 5 offense, while the ARIZ is only top 10. Additionally, the PITT offense ranks #1 v lefties, While ARIZ ranks 13th v righties.
I don't see any kind of overwhelming advantage here, but a bunch of small ones, and they all lean in PITT's direction. Most notably at starting pitcher and on offense. Patrick Corbin is a good middle-back end of a rotation pitcher. Gerrit Cole. Earlier in this post I chastised myself for betting last night on two pitchers (Nova & De La Rosa) who I don't trust. I do trust Cole, that doesn't mean he'll always win, but he's the kind pitcher I want to put money on.
PICK - PITT ML (-172)
MIA @ TB
Jose Fernandez is having an excellent season. He's 6-2 with 5 quality starts in his 9 outings and he's now held opponents to 1 or fewer runs in each of his last 3 starts. His biggest problem thus far has been walks, 24 in 53.2 innings (40.2 per 9 IP).
Although he's only 2-5, Drew Smyly has also pitched effectively for TB. He also has 5 quality starts in his 9 outings. His problem is a penchant for HRs, as he's allowed 9 this season (1.45 per 0 IP).
Smyly has the better WHIP and walks fewer batters, but Fernandez has the better ERA and advanced ERA metrics. He also allows less HRs and strike out more batters.
When we look at these 2 bullpens, we find that they are both very good and pretty equal
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Marlins
|
8
|
7
|
19
|
6
|
76.0%
|
29
|
77.80%
|
1.39
|
3.37
|
4.00
|
4.31
|
0.240
|
0.300
|
Rays
|
9
|
8
|
12
|
5
|
70.6%
|
22
|
79.70%
|
1.19
|
3.69
|
3.52
|
3.81
|
0.230
|
0.261
|
MIA has the small edge in save rate and ERA, but TB has the better WHIP and advanced metrics, as well as the lower BABIP. Based on that we'll give TB a small edge.
When we examine these 2 offense, we find that both are above average.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Marlins
|
-0.4
|
13
|
102
|
10
|
0.325
|
10
|
Rays
|
15.3
|
6
|
107
|
6
|
0.323
|
11
|
Based on these numbers TB has a small edge in run creation. However, that advantage is mitgated by the fact that MIA hits lefties very well (#8), while TB , although it also hits lefties really well (#3), doesn't do anywhere near as wellagainst righthanders (#25).
TB's advantage on offense really doesn't apply when they're facing a righthander like Fernandez and MIA is very good at hitting lefthanders like Smyly. TB's bullpen edge is very small. At starting pitcher, IMO MIA has the edge with Feranadez. He has the better ERA and metrics and doesn't give up near as many HRs as Smyly. So at an underdog price
PICK - MIA ML (+112)
STL @ WASH
After a very shaky start to his Cardinals career, Mike Leake has pitched much better in his last 3 outings, tossing 3 quality starts. In those 3 efforts, he's allowed 15 hits and only 2 earned runs in 21 innings. He's lowered his ERA by almost two full runs, and has now rattled off three straight wins. Further, he's given up only 2 HRs over his last 26 innings.
After holding his opponents to 2 or fewer runs in each of his first 4 starts, Joe Ross he's now allowed 13 runs over his last 17.1 innings in his last 3 starts. He's also allowed a homer in each of those games as opposed to allowing none in his earlier outing. He hasn't really pitched that badly. He only allowed more than 3 earned runs once in his 7 non rain shortened outings.
On paper, this matchup looks pretty even. Leake has the better WHIP and walks fewer batters, while Ross has the better ERA, strikes out a few more and allows fewer HRs.
When we look at the two bullpens, we find that both are very good and pretty evenly matched.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cardinals
|
8
|
3
|
9
|
3
|
75.0%
|
13
|
75.80%
|
1.23
|
3.70
|
3.18
|
3.42
|
0.225
|
0.279
|
Nationals
|
6
|
6
|
13
|
4
|
76.5%
|
25
|
82.30%
|
1.06
|
2.55
|
3.21
|
3.66
|
0.209
|
0.269
|
The Cardinals have the better W-L record and slightly better xFIP, while WASH has the better strand rate, WHIP ERA and BAA. We'll give WASH a slight edge.
When we compare these two offenses, there's no question which one is better.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
37.6
|
2
|
117
|
3
|
0.345
|
2
|
Nationals
|
-12.2
|
16
|
93
|
18
|
0.314
|
16
|
Washington's offense is mediocre, but St. Louis' is elite. The Cards also rank #1 v righthanders.
The two bullpens are both very good, and I would be comfortable with either one in a late game situation. The two starting pitchers are also very close, although Leake appears to be trending upwards and Ross downwards. In Ross' case that may just be a normal regression based on an abnormally high strand rate early in the season. The big difference are the two offenses. St. Louis is just much better than Washington and in what appears to be a close game and a plus $ price
PICK - STL ML (+133)
MIL @ ATL
Wily Peralta has not picked very well this season. He has pitched so poorly that his spot in the Brewer rotation is rumored to be in jeopardy. In his 9 outings, Peralta has just 2 quality starts and in 5 of them he's allowed at least 4 earned runs.
After winning his last start, Matt Wisler became the 1st Atlanta starter to win 2 games this season. Wisler's a very good young pitcher on a very bad Braves team. He's made 8 starts and has produced 6 quality starts.
There is no question as to who is the better starting pitcher in this matchup.
When we examine these 2 bullpens, we find that it's actually a closer matchup than we had anticipated.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Brewers
|
8
|
4
|
14
|
6
|
70.0%
|
20
|
84.20%
|
1.47
|
3.72
|
4.18
|
4.48
|
0.256
|
0.297
|
Braves
|
4
|
13
|
8
|
7
|
53.3%
|
18
|
70.70%
|
1.49
|
4.48
|
3.69
|
4.11
|
0.257
|
0.336
|
MIL has the better W-L record, the better save rate, strand rate and ERA, but ATL actually has the better advanced ERA metrics making this closed than we expected We would still lean MIL, but only by a small margin.
When we look at these 2 offense, there's no question which one is worse
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Brewers
|
-19.4
|
22
|
89
|
22
|
0.311
|
18
|
Braves
|
-75
|
30
|
67
|
30
|
0.272
|
30
|
MIL is definitely a below average offense, but ATL is the worst offensive team in the league.
We have one below average offense and another that is downright putrid. We have 2 bullpens that are actually close and we have one big mismatch at starting pitcher. IMO, MIL will have trouble scoring on Wisler and ATL may not score much, even with Peralta pitching. I expect a low scoring game. In terms of sides, it's scary when ATL is favored, but I think ATL gets enough to eke out a W.
PICK: ATL ML (-121) and UNDER 8
BALT @ HTN
Kevin Gausman has pitched very effectively since returning to th Orioles rotation. In his 6 outings, he's tossed 4 quality starts and he's allowed more than 3 earned run(4) just once.
Lance McCullers struck out 7 and surrendered 5 hits, 2 earned runs and 3 walks over 6 innings in his last start, a 2-1 loss to the Rangers. This outing was a marked improvement over his first start of the season, when he was blasted for 5 earned runs over 4.2 innings against the Red Sox. McCuillers was still shaky with his control -- as evidenced by his 3 walks for the second straight game,- but he was also able to induce 14 swinging strikes.
You can find a reason to like both pitchers, Gausman has the better WHIP, ERA and SIERA. He also walks a lot less batters and has the lower BAA and BABIP. McCullers has the better SIERA and strikes out more. We're still talking about a very small sample size here, though.
When we look at the bullpen. we find that they're both above average and very close.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Orioles
|
12
|
4
|
15
|
8
|
65.2%
|
20
|
83.20%
|
1.24
|
2.60
|
3.66
|
3.89
|
0.234
|
0.289
|
Astros
|
6
|
8
|
11
|
6
|
64.7%
|
31
|
73.50%
|
1.10
|
3.53
|
2.65
|
2.96
|
0.230
|
0.294
|
BALT has the W-L record, strand rate and ERA, but HTN has the better WHIP and metrics. To close to call - EVEN
When we examine the 2 offenses, It's pretty clear which team hits better.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
10.4
|
7
|
107
|
6
|
0.332
|
5
|
Astros
|
-15.7
|
20
|
94
|
16
|
0.310
|
20
|
HTN is slightly below average, but BALT is a top 10 offense.
I have two starting pitchers who are both looking good right now. Gausman has looked great in his 6 outing and McCuller looked like the McCuller that I saw last year. The bullpens are both solid. The biggest difference on these 2 teams in on offense and BALT is much better.
PICK - BALT ML (+115) and UNDER 8 (-115)