For what it worth, yesterday turned out to be a very good day. It started out poorly, but improved quickly but kept getting better and better. When it was finally over our posted plays stood at 8-3.
TB started us off on the wrong foot as Archer got shelled early, and before we knew what hit us the ML and UNDER were both long gone. SEA fell behind CIN early 3-0 after 1 and 4-2 after 3, but Alfredo Simon, allowing 3 runs in the 5th, turning a 4-2 lead into a 5-4 deficit. Neither team wouls core again and we had to settle for a ML W and a RL L. But that was it. everything else went our way.
The Mets and Syndergaard finally cover a RL 3-1 for is. The Indians and Red Sox stayed under 8.5 for another W. Jerad Eickhoff and the Phils shut out the Braves 5-0, avoiding the sweep and cashing both the ML and Under for us. Hamels pitched well and the Rangers blew out the Astros for another W. And Finally, in a great game Madison Bumgarner pitched a gem and drove in the only run in a 10 W over the Cubs for our final ML winner.
On to today.
COL @ PITT
In 4 April starts, Jordan Lyles was terrible. Yes he won at woeful CIN, with 7 innings of 4 hit 1 run ball, but in his other 3 starts, he allowed 18 hits and 17 earned runs in 10.2 innings. And in doing so earned himself a trip back to the minors. He also has more walks (11) than strikeouts (9). This is not a pitcher I want to back. PITT could very well cover this total themselves.
Ryan Vogelsong has only made one start this season. Back on April 13, he pitched 5 innings v DET and allowed only 4 hits and 1 earned run. He's also made 10 appearances out of the bullben with very meixed results. He's allowed 29 hits and 10 earned runs in 19,2 inning. He's fanned 14 but also wasked 10. On a team with Jon Niese and Jeff Locke holding down rotation spots, It speaks volumes that Vogesongl can't earn a spot.
Vogelsong looks better on paper but they're both pretty bad.
When we look at these 2 bullpens, we see that they are both adequate and pretty evenly matched
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rockies
|
7
|
5
|
13
|
5
|
72.2%
|
70.70%
|
23
|
1.34
|
4.32
|
3.77
|
4.05
|
0.256
|
0.305
|
Pirates
|
5
|
5
|
16
|
4
|
80.0%
|
73.10%
|
21
|
1.47
|
4.33
|
4.35
|
4.73
|
0.256
|
0.295
|
We'' give the Rockies pen a slight lean because of their better WHIP and metrics.
Offensively, although they haven't shown it so far in this series, the Pirates have the better offense.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
-23.2
|
24
|
91
|
19
|
0.336
|
5
|
Pirates
|
29.8
|
4
|
116
|
3
|
0.342
|
3
|
The Pirates are a top 5 offense in all 3 categories, the Rockies only in weighted On Base Average.
I could make a case for the Pirates, but I don't trust either pitcher enough to actually put money on them. So Instead I'll grab the total.
PICK - OVER 8.5 (-105)
NYM @ WASH
After the nearly 43-year-old Bartolo Colon put up a 2.82 ERA through his first seven appearances (six starts), regression was inevitable, and it's struck hard. In his last 3 outings, he's allowed 18 hits and 11 earned runs in 16.1 innings. In his last start, Colon had a rough time against these Nationals, giving up 5 hits, 5 walks, a hit batsman and 3 runs over 4.2 innings in a 7-1 loss. He was lucky in that he put 11 men on and yet give up just the three runs through the first four innings, but Colon let the Nats break a 1-1 tie in the fifth and was lifted after needing 107 pitches to get just 14 outs. His control problems were highly unusual, he actually walked more batters in that one start than he had in 43.1 innings coming in.
Gio Gonzalez is having an excellent year for the Nationals. Other than 1 bad outing against the Cubs in which he allowed 7 hits and 5 earned runs in 5.2 innings, he's been consistently good. In his other 7 outings, he hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of them, and 1 or 0 in 5 of them. Gonzalez has produce 6 quality srtarts.
On paper, the two pitchers look very close. Gonzalez has the better WHIP and ERA, he allows fewer HRs and he has the lower BAA and BABIP. Colon has the better metrics and walks fewer batters. The real diference is that Colon started out very strong, but has recently tailed off, while Gonzalez, with the exception of 1 starts, has been consistently good. We'll give the edge to Gonzalez.
When we examine these 2 bullpens, we find that they are both very good and very evenly matched.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mets
|
4
|
4
|
16
|
3
|
84.2%
|
81.20%
|
32
|
1.11
|
2.33
|
3.03
|
3.42
|
0.207
|
0.279
|
Nationals
|
6
|
6
|
13
|
4
|
76.5%
|
82.60%
|
24
|
1.11
|
2.57
|
3.26
|
3.71
|
0.217
|
0.280
|
The Mets have a slightly higher save rate and the slightly better ERA and metrics. Everything else is so close, that it's not worth mentioning. We give a very slight edge to the Mets.
When we examine these 2 offenses again it's very close,
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
1.1
|
12
|
101
|
11
|
0.318
|
12
|
Nationals
|
-11.6
|
18
|
94
|
18
|
0.315
|
14
|
The Mets do have an edge in "Offensive Runs Above Average" and "Weighter Runs Creates +" So we'll give the Mets the offensive edge.
The Mets do have a small offensive edge and maybe a very slight bullpen edge, but I think the Nats have a bigger edge at starting pitcher. Gonzalez is pitching well and the nearly 43 year old Colon is trending downward. I think that continues.
PICK - WASH - ML (-145)
PHIL @ DET
Vincent Velsquez has performed admirably as past of a young and promising Phillies rotation. He's started 8 games and has produced 4 quality starts. He now ranks inside the top 10 in four of the five traditional pitcher measurements, with a 2.42 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 5 wins and 59 strikeouts in 48.1 innings. I still can't figure out why the Astros let this kid go.
Mike Pelfrey's pitched 2 decent games in a row. He went 5.1 innings and only allowed 2 earned runs in each game. For Pelfrey, that's amazing. In his 6 previous starts, he'd allowed 44 hits and 21 earned runs in 30.1 innings. He's also walked almost as many (18) as he's struck out (23). Pelfrey is still a definite fade for me, even more so after 2 decent outings.
It's crystal clear who the better pitcger here is and by a wide margin.
When we look at these two bullpens, the Phillies appear to have the edge.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Phillies
|
9
|
4
|
18
|
5
|
78.3%
|
82.10%
|
33
|
1.34
|
3.84
|
3.71
|
4.01
|
0.237
|
0.281
|
Tigers
|
4
|
4
|
13
|
4
|
76.4%
|
72.90%
|
25
|
1.34
|
4.11
|
3.75
|
3.97
|
0.264
|
0.306
|
PHIL doesn't have an overwhelming edge except in the W-L records and strand rates. Everything else is close, but whatever edge there is belongs to the Phillies.
When we look at the two offenses, there is a huge difference.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Phillies
|
-52
|
29
|
73
|
28
|
0.284
|
28
|
Tigers
|
6.8
|
9
|
107
|
7
|
0.328
|
8
|
DET is a top 10 offense, while the PHILS are one of the worst.
We have two huge mismatches in this game. DET is by far the superior offensive team, but PHIL has the far superior starting pitcher and a small edge in the pen. You know how we're going on this one. Good pitching will shut down go hitting, more often than not.
PICK - PHIL (ML (-103)
TB @ MIA
Matt Moore started out this season very strongly. In his 1st 3 outings, he allowed 15 hits and 6 earned runs in 18,1 innings. His ERA sat at 2.95. However is his next 5 starts, he allowed 33 hits and 20 earned runs in 27.2 innings. During that stretch Moore was 0-3 with a 6.51 ERA. With a couple of extra days off, he used an additional bullpen session during the week to smooth out what was termed "a slight hitch" in his mechanics, namely, a brief stall in his hands when they were overhead during the wind-up process.
After a rough first start, Wei-Yin Chen has settled nicely into the Marlins rotation. In his 7 subsequent outings, Chen tossed 6 quality starts and only allowed more than 3 runs(4) once in those 7 outings. Chen's numbers don't jump off the page, but he's inducing groundballs at a career-high rate.
Based on the better WHIP and better advanced metrics, we'll give Chen the edge. He's also in beter form right now. Perhaps the mechanical adjustmentts by Moore will end is declining performance, but Chen's been steady all year.
When we look at the bullpens, TB looks to have a small edge.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rays
|
9
|
6
|
11
|
4
|
73.3%
|
80.80%
|
19
|
1.14
|
3.55
|
3.54
|
3.84
|
0.221
|
0.246
|
Marlins
|
6
|
7
|
17
|
5
|
77.3%
|
77.20%
|
28
|
1.40
|
3.56
|
4.00
|
4.34
|
0.243
|
0.298
|
The Rays have the better W-L record, strand rate, WHIP, metrics and BAA and BABIP. MIA has the better save rate and ERA, but everything is close - Edge TB
When we look at these two offenses, again it's extremely close.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
10.3
|
7
|
106
|
8
|
0.320
|
11
|
Marlins
|
-1.8
|
13
|
100
|
12
|
0.324
|
9
|
The Rays are a little better an run creation and the Marlins get on base more often. We'' give a very small edge to TB
Thes two teams are very close offensively, in the bullpen and even in starting pitching. The difference is that Moore hasn't really pitch well recently. Chen has been very good and very consistent. Moore's mechanical adjustment could help...I don't really know. What I do know is that I trust Chen much more right now.
PICK - MIA ML (-115)
KC @ MINN
Ian Kennedy has had 2 bad starts is season. On April 25, the Angels got to him for 7 hit and 5 earned run in 6 innings. On May 12, the Yankees roughed him up to the tune of 5 hits and 7 earned run in 6.1 innings. In those 2 games, he also served up 5 gopher balls. However, in his other 6 outings, Kennedy didn't allow more than 2 earned runs in any of them, and tossed quality starts in 4 of them. He also only gave up 2 Hrs in those 6 games combined. When Kennedy's on, he's very good, and when he's not, it can get ugly. Fortunately he's been good a lot more than he's been bad.
Ricky Nolasco has also started 8 games for the Twins. In his first 4 starts, he allowed 22 hits and 10 earned runs in 27.2 innings. In his last 4 outings, he's allowed 30 hits and 20 runs (16 earned) in 21.2 innings. In his last start, Nolasco allowed 4 runs (2 earned) on 9 hits. It was the first time in 5 starts that he didn't allow at least 4 earned runs. Nolascomay have only allowed 2 earned, but he had to work his way out of trouble in every inning.
On paper the two pitchers appear to be pretty evenly matched, in that Nolasco has the better metrics and walks fewer batter, while Kennedy has the better WHIP, ERA, BAA, BABIP and strikes out more hitters. It also should be noted that Kennedy's high strand rate should come down and that's probably why his metrics are a little higher than Nolaso's.
When we examine these 2 bullpens, there's no question that KC is better, and by a wide margin
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Royals
|
7
|
2
|
12
|
5
|
70.6%
|
81.80%
|
26
|
1.18
|
2.51
|
3.23
|
3.59
|
0.226
|
0.295
|
Twins
|
6
|
12
|
3
|
9
|
25.0%
|
76.60%
|
8
|
1.51
|
4.75
|
3.65
|
4.15
|
0.283
|
0.335
|
If it weren't for the horrific Reds bullpen, the Twin could easily be in contention for the worst bullpen in baseball.
Offensively, both of these teams are offensive, but the Twins are just a little more so.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Royals
|
-21
|
23
|
89
|
24
|
0.302
|
24
|
Twins
|
-29
|
26
|
81
|
26
|
0.291
|
27
|
Both of these teams have woeful offenses. The Twins also have a woeful bullpen. The Royals have a very good bullpen. The Twins have a starting pitcher who hasn't pitched well in over a month. The Royals have a pitcher, who will on occasion throw a real klunker, but more often than not, he will be very good. I'm betting Kennedy doesn't throw a klunke rtonite v this weak MINN offense. I'm also betting that even if it's close late, if it comes down to the bullpens, the Royals should win.
PICK - KC ML (-120)