For what it's worth, it's been a very good week so far. We started off with a 4-0 sweep on Monday, we regressed some on Tuesday finishing an OK 5-3. Yesterday, we bounced back big time cashing all 6 of our plays for 6-0 sweep! It doesn't get any better than that.
No question we got lucky in a few of those games. The Angels and Brewers were tied 3-3 through the 7th. In the top of the 8th the Halos jumped all over the Brewers pen for 4 runs, and just that fast 3-3 became a 7-3 Angels W. In Oakland the As jumped all over King Felix in the 5th, chasing him out before he got even 1 out, and by the end of this inning a 4-2 SEA lead turned into an 8-4 OAK lead. Fortunately for me, the Mariners brought their hitting shoes with them, putting 2 on the board in the 6th to make it a 1 run game, then putting 3 more up in the 7th for a 9-8 lead that the SEA pen was able to hold for another W. Finally, the Marlins jumped on De La Rosa early for a 4-0 lead at the end of 3. The D backs got 3 back to make in 4-3 at the end of 5, and the Marlins pen made it hold up for our final W. Yesterday, Lady Luck was definitely on our side, but she can be very fickle and has a habit of evening things out. You have been forewarned.
In our other Ws, the Cubs, Nats and Indians all won handily behind strong outings by Lester, Strasburg and Kluber.
Yesterday, I really liked the cards. I found big edges in most of the games that I posted. Today, I really don't like this card and even in the games that I'm posting I don't seen big edges, just some small ones.
NYY @ BALT
I'm pissed at myself for not betting this game earlier, when I could have gotten the Yankees at + money, as a small dog. Apparently, Masahiro Tanaka's elbow isn't creating any problems for him right now. It's always a concern when everything that I've read says that he's a TJ surgery waiting to happen. So far this season, Tanaka's done everything the Yanks could have possibly hoped for. He's started 5 games and only allowed 2 earned runs in each, and he's posted quality starts in his last 3 outings going 7, 7 and 6.2 innings. His WHIP (0.96) and ERA (2.87) are outstanding. His advanced metrics (3.03 SIERA and 3.08 xFIP) are equally outstanding. His K rate (22.6%, 8.04/9) is good and so is his walk rate (4.8%, 1.72/9).
Kevin Gausman has started has started twice for the Orioles since coming off the DL (right shoulder strain). In his first start, @ TB, he pitched 5 innings, allowing 3 hits and 1 earned run, while fanning 7 and walking 2. In his most recent outing, Gausman allowed 3 runs (2 earned) on 4 hits while striking out 3 and walking 1 over 6 innings against the White Sox. His WHIP (0.91) and ERA (2.45) are equally impressive. His advanced metrics (3.62 SIERA and 3.88 xFIP) are solid but not as good as Tanaka's. His strikeout rate (22.7%, 8.18/9) are similar to Tanaka's, but he walks a few more ((6.8%, 2.45/9).
Both teams have excellent bullpens, but the Os pen might be without Zach Britton again tonight. The Yankees have the much better save % (6/6) and have yet to blow a save, while the O's (8/14) have blown 6. The Yanks' relievers also hold the slightly better WHIP and better advanced metrics. The Os relievers do have the better W-L record (7-2 v 4-5), the better strand rate (84% v 71%) and the better ERA. As I said both pens are good, but I give a small edge to the Yankees.
Offense is where the Orioles have a big edge. The O's have one of the top 10 offenses in baseball, the the Yanks are in the bottom 10 in most offensive categories.
One other thing that Dave Cokin mentioned in his post on this game today is that the "JJ Hardy injury that is forcing a reconfiguration of the Baltimore infield appears to be a creating bit of a problem".
The Orioles have the better offense by a wide margin. The Yankees have the better bullpen, by a smaller margin. And I think the Yankees have the better starting pitcher, at least that's what my numbers tell me, and I trust my nunbers. At virtually pick 'em...
PICK - NYY ML -103)
ARIZ @ MIA
Robbie Ray's season can be broken down into two distinctly different parts. In his first 3 starts, v CHI Cubs @ LAD and @ SF, Ray was excellent, pitching at least 6 innings in each and never allowing more than 2 runs in any of them. That's 3 quality starts. However, his two most recent starts, v PITT & COL, were dreadful. PITT got to him for 8 hits and 5 runs in 3 innings. and in his most recent start, COL got another 5 runs on 7 hits in 4 innings. That's 7 total innings, 15 hits and 10 earned runs. That's really bad. Ray's WHIP sits at an unsightly 1.70 and his ERA (4.97) is closing in on 5. His advanced metrics (4.43 SIERA and 4.35 xFIP) are also very high and he's walking too may batters, 15 in 25.1 innings (12.7%, 5.33/9).
Adam Conley hasn't been great, but he hasn't been awful either. Since a 1 inning, rain shortened opening start, Conley has started 4 games for the Marlins. He's pitched a least 6 innings in 3 of his last 4 starts (in the other he pitched 5.2) and 2 of these were quality starts , in which he allowed 0 runs in 14.1 innings. In his 2 "bad" games, he still went 6.2 and 5.2 innings, and he allowed 4 earned run in each - not good but not awful either. In his last start, Conley tossed 7.2 no-hit innings against the Brewers. He struck out seven and walked four, but was yanked from the game after racking up a career-high 116 pitches. The Marlins' bullpen lost the no-no and the shutout in the ninth, but managed to hold on for the victory. His WHIP is a solid 1.22 and his 3.67 ERA is just fine as well. His advanced metrics (3.92 SIERA and 3.87 xFIP) are slightly higher than his ERA, but still better than Ray's.
Both bullpens are solid with good save and strand rates and when we look at their WHIPS. ERAs, advanced metrics, BAA and BABIP, they're almost identical.
On offense MIA is about 15 pts better in BA and OBP, while ARIZ is about 30 pts better in SLG and averages about 1/3 of a run more per game.
We have tow very good and very even bullpens. We have two decent offense that also look pretty close. For me this pick boils down to the starting pitcher, and I think Conley is the better starting pitcher. I'm a little concerned about the 116 pitches he threw in his last start, but from what I've seen, even if the "bad" Conley shows up, he'll still be good enough to keep MIA in the game. I can't say the same for Ray.
PICK - MIA ML (-130)
WASH @ CHI
When I first glanced at this game, I was sure I'd be betting the dog. I think Kyle Hendricks is a good pitcher, but not an elite pitcher, and probably because the Cubs are so damn good, he's been priced liked an elite pitcher lately. Also, I really like Joe Ross. Then I started capping the game.
Joe Ross is pitching great ball right now. He's started 4 games for the Nats and other that one start where he left after 2 innings because of a blister in his finder, he's been lights out. He pitched a least 6 innings in the other 3, all quality starts. He's pitched a total of 22.2 innings and allowed 15 hits, 7 walks and 2 earned runs. He's fanned 14 and hasn't allowed a home run. His WHIP is an excellent 0.97 and his ERA is an incredible 0.79. However, his advanced metrics (4.50 SIERA and 4.18 xFIP) are really high for someone with an ERA that's so incredibly low? I can't completely explain that discrepancy, but i will point out that Ross currently has a 91.3% strand rate. An average strand rate is around 72%. An elite strand rate in around 78%. Last year Ross's strand rate was 74.1%, close to average. Ross' current 91.3% strand rate is absolutely not sustainable, and as his strand rate comes down his ERA will go up. Don't get me wrong, Ross is a good pitcher, just not quite as good as he seems to be right now.
Kyle Hendricks has also pitched very well for the Cubs. He's started 4 games and pitched a total of 23 innings, allowing 21 hits, 10 earned runs with only 4 walks. He's also fanned 19. His WHIP is a very good 1.09, but his ERA is a little high at 3.91. His advanced metrics however, (3.03 SIERA and 2.88 xFIP) are much lower than his ERA. That tells me that Hendricks has actually pitched better than his ERA would suggest. As with Ross, I don't completely understand why thereis such a discrepancy between Hendricks's ERA and his metrics. I do know that he doesn't usually go deep into games, usually about 6 innings is what you can expect. I know he's allowing less than a hit per inning and he doesn't walk very many. And I also know that his strand rate in unusually low (57.5%) well below average. Last year his strand rate was 71.4%- just about average. Hendricks' strand rate should increase, and as it does we should see a commensurate decrease in his ERA.
When we look at the two bullpens, we find they are both very good, and both pretty evenly matched. The Cubs have the better W-L record (3-2 v 4-4) and the better advanced metrics (2.54 SIERA v 3.08 and 2.88 xFIP v 3.52) and the Nats have the better Save % (83.3%, 10/12 v 80%, 4/5), the better strand rate (83.9% v 73.5%) and the better ERA (2.58 v 2.78). We'll call it a draw.
Offensively, the Cubs have the better bats and rank higher in all major offensive categories (BA - #13 v #24, OBP - #2 v #21 and SLG - #10 v #15). The Cubs also score almost 2 runs per game more than the Nats.
This really is a tough game to cap. We have two good teams. When it come to offense the Cubs are definitely the better team. But, good pitching can, and more often than not does, shut down good hitting. Both teams have very good bullpens - no edge there. The starting pitchers are both good, I just think Ross isn't quite as good as he's looked so far this season, and that Hendricks has actually pitched better than his ERA says.. That's what the advanced metrics tell me and I'm trusting them here. No doubt, there is value on the Nats, but IMO the Cubs are the better team and the right side.
PICK - CHI Cubs ML -140
NYM @ SD
Jacob deGrom looks like he could have another great year for the Mets. He's started 3 three games and has yet to allow more than 1 earned run in any of them. He's pitched a total of 17.2 innings and allowed 15 hits and 2 earned runs. He's also fanned 14 and walked only 4. His 1.08 WHIP and 1.02 ERA are both excellent and his advanced metrics (3.56 SIERA and 3.56 xFIP), while not as low as his ERA, are still very good.
Colin Rea Has also pitched pretty effectively this season. After a rocky 1st start. in which he allowed 6 hits and 5 earned runs in 3.1 inning, Rea has now allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last four starts. His WHIP is still a very high 1.57 and his ERA stands at an equally high 4.61. Rea's advanced metrics (4.41 SIERA and 4,33 xFIP) tell the same story. He's not bad, but nowhere near as good as deGrom.
When we look at the bullpens, The Mets are much better in every category. They're not just better. They're much better.
The same holds true for the offenses. The Mets now rank in the top 10 in most categories, while the Pads remain offensively challenged.
Bottom line - The Mets are clearly the better team with the better starting pitcher. No need to over think this one.
PICK - NYM ML (-180 and sprinkle on RL (-115)