2016 MLB Record:
29-22 for +7.9 Units
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#1: Colorado Rockies -112
Cesar Vargas has done well so far (0.9 ERA) but this is a pitcher that could implode at any time. He has a weak 89 MPH fastball and an ineffective slider in his repertoire, two pitches that the Rockies crush. It’s one thing to hold down a weak hitting Dodgers lineup, and a whole other one to go up against the Rockies. San Diego has won the first two games of this series, having to use their key relievers in both. With it being a day-game with a short turn around I’d expect the Rockies to have an advantage in the BP as well. Strong edges in Colorado’s favor here and I like their chances of getting it done.
#2: Baltimore Orioles -127
This is a complete fade of CC Sabathia, a pitcher who has struggled to get through the 5th inning in 2 of his 4 starts. Sabathia’s fastball is down another 2 MPH this year, he is trying to learn to through a cutter (31% usage rate in ’16 – a pitch he never used before), and his 5.0 SIERA is the highest it’s been in his career. Throw in a double-digit walk-rate of 11% (also highest of his career) and an inability to command a strike zone, and it’s a recipe for disaster. Orioles crush left-handed pitching while the Yankees are a bottom-5 offense in the league. Love the O’s chances here.
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Good luck