For what it's worth, coming off a disappointing 5-6 day on Sunday, and with a small card to work with, we only had four plays, on three games. Fortunately, although we were completely wrong about what we expected to see in one of the games, we got the result right on all 4 plays, sweeping the board to go 4-0 last night.
In the first game, we fully expected the Giants to win because of Johnny Cueto, not in spite of him. We expected him to dominate. Far from it, after being staked to an early 3-0 lead, Cueto couldn't get anybody out in the 3rd as the Reds jumped all over him for 6 hits, with 2 walks and a stolen base, for 6 runs. The big blow was 3 run dinger by Votto. He also allowed a run scoring triple to Bruce. By the end of the 3rd, SF's 3-0 lead had turned into a 6-3 deficit. The only positive aspect of Cueto's outing was that he settled down after that rocky 3rd and pitched 2 more perfect innings to keep the Giants within striking distance though the 5th. As for Brandon Finnegan, after surrendering 3 early runs in the 2nd, he settled in and pretty much breezed through the 6th, leaving with a 6-3 lead. A very nice effort form Finnegan. In came the Red's atrocious bullpen (JC Ramirez and drew Hayes) to pitch the 7th, and 5 hits and 5 runs later the Giants led 8-6. By contrast, the Giant's pen pitched 4 solid innings and we got the W.
Jered Weaver performed exactly as we expected he would (11 hits and 7 runs in 5 innings) and the Brew Crew romped for our 2nd W.
In our final game of the evening, the Nats got two 1st inning run off of Edinson Volquezand and Gio Gonzalez, who continues to pitch great, and the Nats pen combined for a 5 hit 2-0 shutout of the Royals, cashing our Nats picks and our Under 7.5 pick, completing our sweep.
Today, with a full slate of games, we'll be riding some of the horses.
CHI Cubs @ PITT
Jake Arrieta has been absolutely amazing this season. Even when he's been "off" he's been good. In his second start at Arizona, he went 7 inning and allowed 8 hits and 3 whole earned runs! And in his last start v MIL, He only went 5 innings and allowed another run. That's the bad Jake. In his three other starts: 24 innings, 7 hits, 2 shutouts and a no-no.
Jon Niese has also started 5 games. Two of them were very good: 13 innings, 8 hits and 3 earned runs. That's almost as good as the "off" Arrieta. In the other 3 starts: 15.1 innings, 25 hits and 13 earned runs. That's pretty ugly.
The numbers are equally lopsided.
The bullpens are both good by the Cubs have the higher save rate (80% v 69%) and the better WHIP, ERA, metrics, BAA and BABIP.
The offenses are both potent and dangerous but the Cubs average and 3/4 of a run more per game.
Bottom line is it's Arrieta v Niese and that's all that matters. This should be a mismatch.
PICK - CHI Cubs ML -173 and Sprinkle on RL (-105)
SF @ CIN
Jeff Samardzija had been pitching very well for the Giants. In his first four starts, he never allowed more than 3 runs in any of them, and went at least 6 inning in 3 of them. In his last, Samardzija regressed. He allowed five runs on five hits while striking out seven over 5.2 innings in a W over the Padres. Samarzija was staked to an early 3 run lead but, he allowed four hits in the third, including a homer to Matt Kemp, that led to four runs. Fortunately for him, the SF offense responded in the bottom of the inning to retake the lead. Still, Samardzija couldn't make it through six, but thanks to SF's potent O, he left with a seven-run cushion and got the W. His WHIP is an acceptable 1.26 with an ERA of 3.86, and comparably advanced metrics (3.98 SIERA and 3.76 xFIP). His K rate is solid (19.4%, 7.16/9) and his walks (7.5%, 2,76/9) are not overly high. So far, Samardzija's having a solid, but not a great season.
Jon Moscot was a late scratch so we get John Lamb - 1.55 WHIP, 5,80 ERA last year.
When we compared the two bullpens yesterday, we found that while neither is particularly good, the Giants are the better of the two. They have a higher save % (57.1% v 20%), a slightly higher strand rate (71% v 67%), a better WHIP (1.39 v 1.57), a better ERA (4.42 v 6.16) and betters advanced metrics. And that was before last night's game, where the Giants pen a W, a Hold and a Save with 4 scoreless innings of 1 hit relief, while the Reds pen blew a 6-3 for Brandon Finnegan , accumulating a blown save and a loss, by allowing 6 runs on 6 hit in the final 3 frames.
Yesterday, we also noted that the Giants had a big edge in most offensive categories, ranking - BA (#8 v #22), OBP (#5 v #27) SLG (#9 v #24) and HRs (#14 v #27). The Giants also score well over a run more per game than the Reds. They scored 9 more run in last night's game, even with Pagan and Panik not in the lineup.
I still get the better pitcher again today even with Lamb). I get the better bullpen and the better offense. Still at a fair price considering that it's Jon Moscot I'm betting against, nor Brandon Finnegan.
PICK - SF ML (-156)
LAD @ TB
The Dodgers signed Scott Kazmir to a big free agent contract this past offseason. So far their return on that investment has been rather iffy. In his first start, Kazmir was superb, as he pitched 6 innings of 1 hit ball @ the offensively challenged Padres. That outing was followed by three straight disasters during which he allowed a total of 14 earned runs in 13 innings. In his most recent start, Kazmir was able to settle things down against Miami's less than stellar offense, He gave up just two runs on seven hits and a walk in 6 innings, striking out six in a 2-0 loss. His WHIP sits at a high 1.40 with a whopping 5.78 ERA. His advance metrics aren't as bad (4.02 SIERA and 4.18 xFIP) but still high.
Matt Moore has pitched very well for the offensively challenged Rays. He's started 5 games, gone at least 6 innings in 4 of them, and has only allowed more than 3 run in one of them. Unfortunately for Moore, the Rays haven't scored more than 3 runs for him in any of his last 3 starts. Moore's WHIP is a superb 1.03 and his ERA is a very solid 3.66. His advance metrics (3.04 SIERA and 3.11 xFIP) are even better. His K rate's impressive (27.1%, 9.84/9) and his 35/7 K/BB is equally impressive. Moore's only real problem has been the long ball ( he's given up a HR a homer in four of his five starts), and to a certain extent, his control (he's walked multiple batters in three of his starts), On the plus side, he's missing plenty of bats (35 Ks in 32 innings). The other real problem for Moore (and the rest of the Rays fine pitching staff) is the TB offfense. They just don't score enough runs. The pitchers have to be almost perfect to win. For Example, in Moore's last start, he lost 3-1 against the Orioles despite striking out nine and surrendering only three hits, three earned runs and two walks over seven innings. Moore made one major mistake that proved to be the difference. He allowed a 5th inning, two-out homer Joey Rickard for a three-run homer, nullifying what otherwise was otherwise a stellar effort. He equaled his longest stint on the mound this season, while also giving up his fewest hits in a start to date.
Both bullpens are very good and very close. the TB pen has a better record (7-3 v 5-5), a slightly higher save rate (71.4% v 64.3%) and slightly better strand rate (81.5% v 69.6%). That's pretty much it. I give a slight edge to the Rays, but it's very slight.
Both offense leave a great deal to be desired. The Dodgers have the better BA (.237, #18 v .221, #30) and the better OBP (.314, #14 v .289, #30), but the Rays have the better SLG (.383, #21 v .363, #28) and hit ore HRs (28, #12 v 17, #29). The Dodgers also score about 3/4 of a run more per game, so we'll give LA a small edge on offense.
With two mediocre to bad offenses, two very good bullpens and at least 1 good pitcher (Moore) I don't see a lot of runs being scored in this one, and as I usually do, I'' take my shot with the better pitcher.
PICK - TB ML (-140) and UNDER 8 (-110)
WASH @ KC
Tanner Roark is quietly having a very good season so far. He has started a total of 5 games for the Nats. In his last 4, he's pitched at least 6 innings and in 3 of the 4 he's gone 7. In those three 7 inning starts he hasn't allowed a single run. MIA did get to him for 4 earned runs in the one 6 inning start. He got a good 1.19 WHIP and a very low 2.03 ERA. His advanced metrics (3.82 SIERA and 3.53 xFIP) aren't quite as low, but still very good. He doesn't give up many HRs (0.29/9) and he has an excellent BAA (.211) and BABIP (.277). Not too shabby for a gut who was used mostly in relief and as a spot starter last year.
For Chris Young, this season's been a mixed bag. Three of his five starts have been about as good as you're likely to get from him, 5-6 innings, 2-3 run, 3-4 hits, a couple of walks and 4 or 5 Ks. In the other two he's been much worse, under 5 innings, 8-9 hits, 4-6 runs and a couple of walks. He's also allowed at least 1 HR in every start. At best, he's mediocre and at worst he's pretty bad. His WHIP (1.68) and ERA (6.12) are both very high, and his advanced metrics (4.04 SIERA and 4.39 xFIP) aren't as bad, but still not good. Over the last 3 years, Youngs metrics (5.09 SIERA and 5.15 xFIP) have been extremely high. I sure looks like this year his ERA is catching up.
Both teams have excellent bullpens. The Nats have a higher save % (90% v 75%), a better WHIP (1.03 v 1.21), and better advanced metrics (3.08 SIERA v 3.44 and 3.53 xFIP v. 3.98). The Royals do have the slightly better ERA (2.37 v 2.58) and a marginally better strand rate (85.8% v 83.9%). Both pens are very good and both were solid again last night, but I give a slight edge to the Nats.
On offense, the Royals hit a little better (.254 v .234) but the Nats hit more homers (29 v 21) and score about 3/4 of a run more per game than the Royals. Neither offense looks particularly potent to me, but they do look pretty even to me, and last night's 2-0 Nats win did nothing to change my opinion, so we'll still call it a draw.
Let's see I'm left with two pretty evenly matched but mediocre offenses; two very good bullpens, again very close, but I give a the Nats with Roark starting v Young, Roark is clearly the better pitcher. IMO the wrong team is favored again. So at a dog price...
PICK - WASH ML (+111)
BOS @ CHI WS
I usually avoid betting games involving knucklers. They're just too damn unpredictable. Having said that, I must admit that Steven Wright's been very consistent so far this year and pretty damn good. He's started 4 games and dpitched a least 6 innings in each one. In his 26.1 innings, he's allowed 19 hits and 7 runs (4 earned). He's also fanned 25 and walked 11. His WHIP is an excellent 1.14 and his ERA is a tiny 1.37. His advanced metrics, however, (4.07 SIERA and 4.22 WHIP) are much higher and tell me that Wright is due for regression.
Jose Quintana is also having a very good season. He's started 5 games and pitched at least 6 innings in the last 4 (he went 5.2 in his first start). He has yet to allow more than 2 earned run in any start this year. His WHIP (1.14) and ERA (1.47) are both outstanding. His advanced metrics, however, (3.27 WHIP and 3.21 xFIP) are much better than Wright's. That tells me he's actually pitched better than Wright has. Quintana also has a better K rate (26,5%, 9.39/9 v 22.5%, 8.54/9), and a lower walk rate (6.6%, 2.35/9 v 9.9%, 3.76/9. A examination of last season's numbers reveal pretty much the same things.
When we compare bullpen, both are very good. BOS has a higher save % (80% v 75%), while CHI has the higher strand rate (82.5% v 73.6%). The White Sox also have the lower WHIP (1.01) v 1.24) and ERA (1.60 v 3.61). Very slight edge to CHI in the pen.
Offensively BOS is the better team. The Red Sox are top 5 in BA, OBP and SLG, while the White Sox are in the middle of the pack. BOS also scores almost 1.5 more runs per game than CHI.
This is a tough one but I trust Quintana more than I trust Wright and I think good pitching shuts down good hitting here so....
PICK - CHI WS ML (-139) and UNDER 8 (-105)