Cake with the Heat on the Sunday free play. Back to baseball for tonight’s comp selection.
ROCKIES (Gray) at PADRES (Shields)
Take: ROCKIES +110
Jonathan Gray has some horrendous base numbers through his first two starts. But dig a little deeper and it’s easy to see some encouraging numbers. The BB/K is terrific. What isn’t is Gray’s luck and if you saw the start against the Pirates, you know what I mean. There was some incredibly bad luck on soft contact, and that’s just random stuff that can’t be predicted. What can be is a correction coming on an amazing .519 BABIP. I would look for much better results for Gray tonight.
The flip side is struggling James Shields. One of the comparatives I like to look at is month by month data from one year to the next, particularly when it comes to velocity, as I think that’s a more accurate indicator. Shields was notably down when looking at April 2015 next to April 2016. Not surprisingly, his K rate is the lowest it’s ever been, and his control also hasn’t been especially good. Shields looks like a pitcher in clear decline.
The Padres are horrible offensively at home vs. righties and Colorado is arriving on a high after winning three straight at Arizona. I’ll take the small plus with the Rockies here.
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