2016 MLB Record:
24-19 for +5.77 Units
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#1: St Louis Cardinals -140
Here’s a classic example of a pitcher’s ERA not justifying his true performance level. Ross has an ERA of 0.5, but his 16% K-rate (5.4 K/9) is terrible, his 0.196 BABIP is unsustainable, and his 93% strand-rate is unrealistic. His advanced metrics indicate a SIERA of 4.4, or a pitcher that would rank about 100th out of 150 starters (30 teams * 5 starters per team). Basically Ross is more of a bottom-third percentile in terms of his ability so far, not an ‘elite’ pitcher that his ERA might be indicating. One key issue for him is that he’s horrible against lefties, while being dominant against right-handers. Cardinals have 5 lefties (out of 8 hitters…pitchers don’t count in NL) in their lineup tonight and come into this one having the #1 ranked offense in the league. With Ross coming off a 2-inning outing due to a blister, and his metrics indicating major regression, this is a bad matchup for him. On the other side we have Garcia, whose 3.3 SIERA is indicative of around 30th mark out of 150, or a low-end #1 starter. His K-rate of 28% is elite, as is his ability to get lefties out. Nationals have a 19th ranked offense, which is primarily reliant on Harper and Murphy, two left-handers who are two of the best hitters in the league so far this season. If Garcia can neutralize these two, Nationals’ offense won’t be able to do much in this game. Finally, even if this game is close late, STL have a huge edge in the BP. Papelbon has appeared in 2 straight and looked very shaky yesterday, so I doubt he’s available tonight. Cardinals’ key relievers are all very well rested. My model hast this game at -170 Cards, and I agree that value is clearly on them here.
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