For what it's worth, yesterday was a really good day. Coming off a very bad day, we finished 4-1.
Jake Arrieta wasn't as sharp as he usually is, going only 5 innings, allowing 3 hits and 1 earned run. Fortunately , he didn't have to be. He just had to be better than Taylor Jungman and the Cubs O did the rest for an easy RL cover. Jungman, meanwhile, looked really bad again and continues to regress.
The Phils completed their sweep of the Nats. Not only did they sweep, they tossed 3 shutouts! That means we not only got the ML cover, but the Under 7.5 cashed easily. It got a little scary in the bottom of the 8th when the Nats had the bases loaded with 2 out and Harper at the plate, but Araujo fanned Harper and the in the top of the 9th the Phils got to the Nats pen for 3. Game over. As a I mentioned in yesterday's post, I really like Philly top 3 starters (Nola, Velasquez & Eickhoff) and their bullpen's really improved. As for the Nats, I can understand getting shutdown by Velasquez and Nola, but Jeremy Hellickson? My friend Corey Wood said yesterday that they are over rated and I agree. Offensively, they're not as bad as they looked in this series, but the stats say they're average, no better. The starting pitching is solid, but the chicks are starting to show in their armour. Scherzer really hasn't looked all that elite since the first half of last year. He pitched poorly in big games they desperately needed at the end of last year and he's been more inconsistent that usual this year. As for the bullpen, can someone tell me why Jonathan Papelbon is still on this team after the crap he pulled last year? At one time, he may have been an elite closer, but not anymore and he sure didn't look anything like one yesterday.
Michael Wacha pitched well, as expected. Rubby De La Rosa pitched even better, and wesure din't expect that to happen. We knew it was a possibility as I said in yesterday's post "De La Rosa confuses the hell out me. I keep hearing about how good his stuff is, but he never seems to quite put it together. When he's on, he can be absolutely dominating, but when he's off, he can truly suck.". Well, the good Rubby showed up and gave us our only L of the day. The Cards looked tired. It was the last game of a long road trip for them and they looked it
in the final evening game, Jose Fernandez outdueled Kenta Maeda giving us our 4th W on the MIA RL. The Marlins finally got to Maeda in the 7th knocking him out after tying the score at 2. Pedro Baez relieved Maeda and promptly gave up a single, scoring the go ahead run for MIA and then balked in another run. That was pretty much ballgame. Well, today's another day with a full slate of games so we better get started.
ATL @ CHI Cubs
It's getting mighty expensive to bet on the Cubs. I believe that I saw lines as high as -400 on Arrieta yesterday, and today Lester is -300? Frankly, I just won't play a ML at that price. It's crazy. Losing just one game at that price can really hurt. The problem is that I just don't like betting run lines either. As I've said many time, I don't like betting into situations where my goal and the team's aren't the same. Parlays? I don't like them either, even two teamer. My experience hasn't been positive.
Jon Lester is a very good pitcher on a very good team. He's started 4 games this season and has pitched at least 6 innings in all of them, at least 7 innings in 3 of the 4. That's a total of 27.1 innings in which he's allowed 18 hits and 6 earned runs (3 came in 1 game and 1 in each of the other 3). He's fannned 23 and walked only 5. His WHIP is 0.84 and his ERA in 1.98. His advanced metrics (3.40 SIERA and 3.09 xFIP) tell me that WHIP and ERA will go up a little, no big deal. He's striking out 23% and walking only % of the hitters he's faced and his BAA is 189 and his BABIP is 217. Finally his strand rate is an amazing (and not sustainable) 90.4%! If it weren't for Jake Arrieta and Clayton Kershaw, everyone would be taolking about what a great season Lester is having so far. The only thing he doesn't do well is throw to 1st. Why isn't everyone bunt on him?
Aaron Blair is making the second start of his career for the hapless Braves. He pitched well in his MLB debut against the Mets, allowing three on six hits over 5.1 innings. He also struck out one and walked two. He did take the loss, but the Mets came into that game red hot, having hit 16 home runs in their last six games. Blair didn't allow a homer and he threw 45 of his 80 pitches for strikes, inducing eight looking strikes and four swing-and-misses. He gave the Braves a chance to win the game and that's pretty much all you can ask for.
When we compare bullpens, the Cubs are clearly better. Most notably an 80% save rate v a 44.5% rate of PHIL. Their WHIP is much lower (1.02 v 1.51), their ERA is a run and a half lower and their advance metrics are all at least 1 run lower. Finally, their BAA and BABIP are both about 70 points lower. The Phils pen is much better than it used to be, but clearly not in the Cubs' league.
The offensive difference between these teams is even more massive. The Cubs are in the top 10 in BA. OBP and SLG. The Phils are bottom 10 in OBP and bottom 5 in the other two. Also, the Cubs average almost 3 runs per game more than the Phils.
Yes Aaron Blair could pitch another great game and slow down the Cubs potent O and the Phils bullpen could continue to pitch as well as they did v the Nats, but the Cubs aren't the Nats. I suppose that it's also possible that the Phils could score enough runs to keeps it close. But, I'm not betting on it. In fact, I am betting that the Phils take a step back tonight and the Cubs roll again. PICK -CHI CUBS RL (-135)
CLEV @ PHIL: The Phillies are coming home following a 3 game (3 shutouts) sweep of the Nationals, and none of their top three starters is pitching tonight. To me, it looks like a good time to fade them.
The Tribe will send Corey Kluber to the mound in hopes of slowing down the suddennly formidable Philly express. Kluber has started 4 games this season with very mixed results. In his 2nd start @ offensively challenged TB, he pitched 7 solid innings allowing 4 hits and 3 earned runs in a hard luck 5-1 loss. He fanned 6 and walked only 2. In his most recent start, @ DET, he was even better. He threw 8 innings and allowed just 2 hits and 1 earned run. He struck out 10 and didn't walk anyone. In his two home starts, he didn't fare as well. Boston and the Mets each tagged him for 9 hits and a combined 10 earned runs. He struck out 13 and walked 3 in these games as well. Kluber's WHIP is a solid 1.07, but his ERA is high (4.67). His advanced metrics, however, are much lower (3.02 SIERA and 3.02 xFIP). That tells me that Kluber's pitched a lot better than his ERA indicates. He still fans a lot of hitters (27%) and doesn't walk many (5%), and His BAA is 233.s
Adam Moran will be making his first start of the season for PHIL. He was called up late July and started 15 games for the Phils last year He had 7 quality starts. His WHIP was a decent 1,25 but his ERA was a high 4.48. However, unlike Kluber, his advanced ERA metrics (4.94 SIERA and 5.12 xFIP) were actually higher than his already high ERA. That tells me that his ERA could easily have been higher. He doesn't strike out that many (13.9%, 5.23/9) and he doesn't walk that many either (4.8%, 1.81/9).
Comparing bullpens, we find that these 2 teams are pretty even. PHIL has a better record (4-2 v 2-4), they have 6 more holds and a 5% higher strand rate (80% v 75%). CLEV has the better ERA by about 1/2 run but PHIL has the better SIERA and xFIP, also by about 1/2 a run. CLEV's BAA is 40 points lower, and their BABIP ia about 60 points lower. I probably lean to the PHIL pen, but it's extremely close. Also, keep in mind that the PHIL pen pitched 2 critical innings yesterday while CLEV had the day off.
On Offense, CLEV's not great but, in most categories, they are slightly above average while PHIL has a bottom 5 offense. CLEV is also average more than a run per game more than PHIL.
In conclusion, I've got the much better pitcher, a decent bullpen, and an offense that's also much better. They'll be facing one of the Phils weaker starters, and one of the weakest offenses in the league. Plus, it looks like a good spot to fade PHIL coming home, off of that road sweep in WASH. PICK - CLEV - ML (-177) + Sprinkle on RL
NYY @ BOS
Masahiro Tanaka has started the season very strongly. He's made 4 starts and pitched effectively in each one. He pitched 5 and 5.2 innings in his first 2 and 7 in his 2 most recent. He's only allowed 2 earned run in each. He's been incredibly consistent. That's a total of 24.2 innings and 8 earned run on 18 hits and only 2 HRs.. He's fanned 23 and walked 6. His WHIP and ERA are both superb (0.97 WHIP and 2.92 ERA) His advanced metrics are also very good (3.16 SIERA and 3.14 xFIP). Opponents are only hitting 200 against him and his BABIP in a low 246. Tanaka's having a really good year, so far.
Henry Owens made his first start of the season last Sunday night in Houston. He gave up three earned runs, on 5 hits, 1 HR and 4 walks over 3.1 less than stellar innings. He also struck out 4. Owens started 11 games for Boston last year compiling a 1.37 WHIP and a 4.57 ERA. His advanced metrics (4.66 SIERA and 5.01xFIP) say that his ERA could have been even higher and his Walk rate of almost 9% was on the high side. Owens is a good prospect and showed flashes last year (2 back to back quality starts in Sept), but he's still too inconsistent and walks too many batters.
When we look at the bullpens, we find that while the Red Sox are solid, the Yankees are exceptional. This might be the best bullpen in baseball. They are 6 for 6 (100%) in save situations and are stranding 74% of all base runners. BOS has a solid 75% save rate and also strands 74%. The Yanks pen has a better WHIP (0.97 v 1.33), an ERA that is 1/2 a run better and advanced ERA metrics that are a full run better. Their BAA is 20 points lower and their BABIP is about 40 points lower. The Sox are good but the Yanks pen is great!
Offense is the only edge the Red Sox have in this game, but it is a big one. BOS has a top 10 offense (BA- #2, OBP-#5, SLG-#7 and avg runs scored-#5) while the Yanks are a bottom 10 offense. BOS averages about 1.5 runs more per game.
In the final analysis, this game comes down to the much better pitching (starting and relief) v the much better offense. More often than not, good pitching will shut down good hitting. I'll take the better pitching. PICK - NYY ML (-115)
SF @ NYM
Jake Peavey got of t a rocky start this season. In his first 3 starts, he never lasted more than 5 innings and never allowed less than 4 earned runs. In those three starts, he pitched a total of 14 innings and allowed 28 hits, 14 Earned runs. Peavy finally earned his first win of the season in his last start against the Marlins, allowing just two runs with four strikeouts and a walk over seven strong innings. Even after his last start, he's still carrying a 1.76 WHIP and a 6.86 ERA. His advanced metrics, while better his ERA are still well north of 4.
After a brutal first starts v MIA, where he got rocked for 6 hits and 7 earned runs in 1.2 innings. Steven Matz settled down with back to back quality starts in which he pitched 13.1 innings allowing 12 hits but only 2 earned runs while fanning 17. Matz's WHIP (1.47) and ERA (5.40) are both high, but his advanced metrics (2.95 SIERA and 2.72 xFIP) say he's pitched much better than Peavey.
Comparing the two bullpens, we find that the Mets have 5 more hold, 4 more saves and 1 less blown save. The Mets also have the far better save % (80% ) v SF's 57% and a 4% higher strand rate. The Mets pen also boasts the better WHIP (1.23 v 1.38), the better ERA by about 1.5 runs, and the better advanced metrics by about a full run.
The Giants have the better offense, but not by that much (BA by about 20 pts, OBP by about 20 pts, and SLG by about 10 pts). The Giants also average about 3/4 of a run more per game. When you take into consideration how badly the Mets O started of the year, the case could be made that, right now the Mets O is as good as SF's.
My final analysis is pretty much the same as it was for the Yankee game. I get the better starting pitcher, the much better bullpen and tow offense that are pretty close. I'll always take the better pitching to shut down even good hitting. PICK - NYM - ML (-145)
WASH @ STL
Stepen Strasburg's been on a major roll this season. He's started 4 games, pitched 6 innings in his first start and anto the 7th inning in the next three. That's a total of 29 innings. In those 29 Innings, he allowed 20 hits, and only 7 earned runs. Additionally 3 of those 7 earned runs came on 1 three run homer in his last start, the only homer he's given up all year. He's fanned 31, while only walking 7. Strasburg has now struck out 10 batters in consecutive starts, giving him a 2.17 ERA, 0.93 WHIP. His advanced ERA metrics (2.81 SIERA and 2.69xFIP) are equally outstanding. It's early, but 2016 might finally be the year Strasburg puts it all together and takes a run at his first Cy Young award.
Mike Leake, who will start for STL, has been OK, but far from outstanding. After a rocky 1st start (4.1 innings, 7 hits and 4 ERs), Leake put together 3 adequate outings of 6, 7 and 5 innings, allowing, 4,and 3 earned runs) Not exactly Cy Young material but not terrible either. Leake sports a very high 1.57 WHIP and a 4.23 ERA. His advanced metrics (4.09 SIERA and xFIP) sugg.est that While his WHIP probably will come down somewhat, An ERA in the mid to low 4s is just about right. Nothing awful, but nothing special.
Both bullpens are good and amazingly close. The Nat are a little better in Save % and strad rate as well as ERA and WHIP. The Cards have slightly better advanced metric. I call it a draw.
Offensively is where the Cards have a big edge. While the Nats are slightly below average in most offensive categories, The Cards are top 3.
In conclusion. If the Cards get to strasburg, they'll win, but the way Srasburg is pitching right now, I don't see that happening. Yes, I know the Nats have been shut out 3 times in their last 3 games, but I think they score some runs here v a very ordinary pitcher. Also, I don't like betting on a home team in it's first game gamme after a long road trip. PICK - WASH ML ( -144)
KC @ SEA
There will be no big write up on this one. I've had a few. Today is my wife's birthday, yesterday was mine, so we're celebrating tonight.
Kinf Felix has a 1.16 WHIP and a miniscule ERA of 1,80. His advanced metrics are over 4.00 which tells me to be careful.
Kris Medlin has a 1.87 WHIP and a 6.00 ERA. His advanced metrics are right around 5.00. He sucks. I never bought in to KC's 4th and 5 starters (Young and Medlin
Even if I buy King Felix's advanced metrics, he still a full run better than Medlin.
The bullpens are surprising close to me. KC has a slightly higher Save % and strand rate and a better WHIP and WHIP but it's close. SEA have the better metrics and lower BAA and BABIP. Call it a wash.
Offensively SERA scores a little more per game but KC has a slightly better BA. Again too close to call
IMO, this comes down to King Felix v Kris Medlen - No Brainer PICK SEA - ML (-144)