For what it's worth, and yesterday it wasn't worth much, it was a really bad day. Coming off a very good day, we finished 2-5. It was a very busy day, but that's not the reason we fared so poorly. It was the reason my post was so late. As soon as I looked at the card, I had a pretty good idea which games I liked, (CHI WS, TB, MINN, ARIZ & LAA - a combined 2-3). I probably should have passed on OAK/DET. I liked Gray a little more than I liked Verlanded, and my thinking was that the game would be close late, and OAK's bullpen (OAK's biggest edge IMO) would be the difference. Nope! DET jumped on Gray early for 4. OAK did have the bases load in the next inning but couldn't get the big hit to get back in the game. The rout was on (Sorry Carson). My biggest problem was deciding whether or not to lay the 1.5 to make the big favs (WASH, BOS, NYM, CHI Cubs) reasonably priced. I immediately eliminated BOS from further consideration because I don't trust knuckleballers (too unpredictable) - big mistake. I should have just faded Bud Norris and trusted the potent BOS bats. If the Cubs hadn't been PPD, I'd have bet all 3 and hoped to get 2. Bu they were PPD and that left the Nats and the Mets. I thought the Nats were the safer choice. They were coming off a loss to Velazquez and I thought they'd be really motivated, Gio had been pitching really well and Hellickson wasn't Velasquez, not even close. As for the Mets, Harvey looked good in his last game, but I couldn't get his recent tantrum out of my mind. Well that didn't work out very well for us. Gio did his part and pitched well, Harvey had his 2nd straight god start, and the Nats hitters made Hellickson look like Vincent Velasquez. Fading Chris Young turned out well but fadung Adma Wainwright, no so much. Oh well, today's another day.
PITMIL @ CHI Cubs: I don't kie betting run lines and I don't like betting on a pitcher after he's thrown a no-no, but Arrieta's been absolutely incredible - 4 starts - 2 shutouts and 1 no-no, 3 earned runs in 31 innings! Wow! Taylor Jungman's has been just awful. In his 4 starts he's gone 5,6,2,and 4 innings. He's allowed 21 hits and 17 runs in those 17 innings. His WHIP's 1.38, his ERA's 4.50 and his advanced metrics are all well over 5. The Cubbies have the much better pen and a high powered offense. The Brewers have neither. IDon't see how the Brewers keep up. Stranger things have happened but PICK - CHI Cubs RL (-145)
PITT @ COL: I'm not sure that I really want to step in front of this Pirate juggernaut right now. In their last 7 games, they've scored 56 runs, That's an average of 8 runs per game. Since they arrived in Colorado, they've scored 24 runs in the 3 games that they've played at Coors. Juan Nicasio will start for PITT. He's made 4 starts and three of them have been very good. In his first start he beat STL 6-1 at home, with 6 innings of 2 hit 1 run ball. He struck out 7 and didn't walk anyone. He did get roughed up in his second start @ DET for 6 hits and 4 runs over 4 innings. He struck out 4 but walked 5. In his 2 most recent starts (v MIL and @ ARIZ) he went 6 then 5 innings, allowing 5 then 3 hits and 3 then 2 runs. He struck out 10 but walked 6.. On the plus side, only once did he allow more than 3 earned runs (4 @ DET). He also has a good K rate - 24.7%. On the minus he, he hasn't gone more than 6 innings in any start and he's gone 5 or less twice. He doesn't pitch deep into games. He also still walks too many - 12.9% (11 in 14 innings over his last 3 starts). His numbers (1.35 WHIP and 4.50 ERA) are mediocre. His advanced metrics( 4.30 SIERA and 4.27 xFIF) support the mediocrity of his ERA. Tyler Chatwood will start for COL. He's also started four games this season and two of them were quality starts. At ARIZ, he went 6.1 innings allowing 7 hits but only 2 runs (1 earned) and at Wrigley against the Cubs, he pitched 7 innings of shutout ball allowing only 2 hits. However, Chatwood's two home starts were totally different animals. SF got to him for 11 hits and 5 runs with 2 HRs, and in his most recent start, the Dodgers got to him for 6 hits and 3 runs and another homer. That's two home starts, 17 hits, 8 runs and 3 HRs. His WHIP (1.29) and ERA (3.47) are better than Nicasio's as are his advanced metrics (3.76 SIERA and 3.69 xFIP). On the plus side, his 4 walks this season in 23.1 innings indicate that his control is his biggest weapon. On the minus side, he's not an exceptional strikeout pitchers and then there's that home/road dichotomy. In the bullpen, PITT has the better record 4-2 v 3-4, and more hold 12 v 8. PITT has more saves but a slightly higher percentage of blown saves. The PITT pen has the better ERA but COL has the better ERA advanced metrics. PITT's BAA and BABIP is also about 30 points lower. Neither team has a great bullpen, but they are pretty even. Both offenses are in the top 10 in most offensive categories and both average over 5 runs per game. COL does score a little more, but they have the advantage of home games at Coors. They're probably pretty even when you factor that on and PITT is certainly hitting well at Coors so far. It's tough to make a strong case for either side so I won't. PICK - OVER 11.
PHIL @ WASH: The Nats have been shut out twice at home by the Phils. First it was Vincent Velasquez and I can understand that. He has that kind of stuff. I'm still scratching my head on what in the world possessed the Houston Astros to let that kid go? Today, the Astros sit at 7-15, tied with the Pads and the Twins for the 2nd worst record in the league. Only the Braves are worse. The Phils, meanwhile, are 11-10 and only 3.5 games behind the Nats. I digress. Last night in was Jeremy Hellickson who threw 7 innings of 2 hit ball at the Nats, Jeremy Hellickson? Today, the Phils will start Aaron Nola. Nola has started 4 games. Two of his starts have been superb. He pitched 7 innings @ CIN in his first start and @ MIL in his most recent one. In those 2 combined he allowed 8 hits and 2 earned runs He struck out 15 and walked only 1. His 2nd start v SD was OK as well. He toosed another 7 innings allowing 6 hit and 4 earned runs. He fanned 9 and didn't walk anyone. His 3rd start was more problematic v this WASH team. They got to Nola for 7 hits and 7 runs in 5 innings. He did fan 6 but he also walked 3 in this one. I like Aaron Nola, I think that he, along with Vincent Veasquez and Jared Eickhoff could be the top tier a a potentially very strong Phils rotation (notice that i didn't include Jeremy Hellickson). Nola's got an excellent 1.00 WHIP, but his ERA at 4.50 is rather high. His advanced metrics tell a different story. His 2.79 SIERA and 2.67 xFIP tell me that his ERA should be lower, a lot lower. Tanner roark will start for the Nats. I'm still not sure what to make of Tanner Roark. Back in 2014, he was an integral parts of a Nats rotation that wasn't nearly as good as the one they have now and he pitched very well. He regressed badly in 2015. His WHIP was 1.35 and his ERA and advanced metrics were all above 4.50. But, in his defense, the Nats really yanked his chain last year. He was originally relegate to the bullpen when the season started, made 12 starts as a spot starter and appeared in another 28 as a reliever. He never really had a defined role and that can create havoc for pitchers, who are creatures of habit. This season he's started 4 games with mixed results. In his first start, at home, the Marlins lit him up for 9 hit and 4 runs (3 earned in just 4 innings with 3 Ks and 3 walks. He next faced the woeful Braves at home and threw 7 innings of shutout ball allowing 4 hits with 4 Ks and 3 passes. In his 3rd start at MIA, the Marlins got to him for another 7 hits and 5 runs (4 earned) in 6 innings, with 2 Ks and 2 free passes. In his most recent start v MINN, he threw 7 innings of 2 hit shutout ball, striking out a whopping 15 while walking 3and throwing 121 pitches. Roark also has decent numbers. His 1.38 WHIP is high and doesn't square with his 2.63 ERA. His advanced ERA metrics (3.96 SIERA and 3.63 xFIP) tell me that while he's not hearly as good as his ERA wound suggests, he's also not a bad as his WHIP says he is. When we compare bullpens, The Nats have a slightly better record (4-1 v 3-2) a better save rate (8/9 v 5/7) and a higher strand rate (87% v 78%). The Nats also have the edge in bullpen WHIP, ERA, advanced ERA metrics, BAA and BABIP. The Phils aren't bad anymore, but the Nats are still better. Offensively, WASH is about average but PHIL is in the bottom 5 in most categories. WASH also averages more than a run more per game. Bottom line, I'm torn on this game. IMO Nola is the better starting pitcher. That's what the numbers tell me. I think that it's not a coincidence that Roark's 2 quality outings came against the Braves and Twins (2 of the worst teams in baseball) and may say more about them than it does about Roark. The Philly pen has actually been much better than I projected it to be, it may not be as good as WASH's, but it ain't bad. The PHIL offense or lack thereof does concern me. Roarks 2 good starts both came against bad Os and the PHIL O belongs down there as well. Really, what I'm most afraid of, is that the WASH O, after being shut out twice already in this series, will erupt. However, I'm not going to take the cowardly (some would say smart) position and pass on the game, I'm going to trust my numbers and trust that good pitching will shut down the Nats bats one more time. PICK - PHIL ML (+140 ) + UNDER 7.5
STL @ ARIZ: Michael Wacha's first start @ PITT was brutal. He only pitched 4.1 innings and got lit up for 10 hits and 5 runs (4 earned). Since then, he's been rock solid. He's gone 6 innings in each one of his three starts.=, and he's allowed 15 hit and 3 earned runs over that span. He's also fanned 12 and walked 5. Wacha's WHIP is a unusually high (for him) 1.43 but his ERA a low 2.82. That tells me he's putting a lot of men on base but they're not scoring. In two of his starts he got hit hard. PITT got 10 hits in his first start and CIN got 7 in his 3rd start but only scored 3 runs (1 earned). He also had a weird game in his last start @ SD. Wacha had been averaging nearly a strikeout per inning coming into that game, but he didn't strike out anyone and he walked 4. He but only allowed 2 hits and 2 earned runs. While, I don't think that it's anything to get alarmed about, it's worth keeping an eye. the bottom line is, if Wacha keeps putting that many runners on base, some of them will score and that low ERA of his will climb. His advanced ERA metrics (4.50 SIERA and 4.14 xFIP) convey pretty much the same message. Based on his performance last year, His WHIP will come down, his ERA will go up but not drastically and his metric will a little into the 3s. Wacha will be opposed by Rubby De La Rosa. De La Rosa confuses the hell out me. I keep hearing about how good his stuff is, but he never seems to quite put it together. When he's on, he can be absolutely dominating, but when he's off, he can truly suck. De La Rosa's started 3 games this season. He's also made sort appearances out of the bullpen. In his first start v the Cubs at home, he was shelled to the tune of 6 hits and 7 runs (6 earned) with 3 walks and 2 Ks in 3.1 innings. His next start, at the Dodgers, 13 days later, didn't go a lot better. He lasted 4.2 innings, allowing 5 hits and 3 runs (2 earned) while fanning 3 with 1 walk. In his most recent start v PITT, 10 days later, De La Rosa was much better going a full 6 innings and allowing just 3 hits and 1 earned run. He fanned 6 and only walked 1 although he did have some problems with control, as he hit two batters. De La Rosa's currently sports a 1.32 WHIP and a very high 5.4 ERA. His advanced ERA metrics, however, are much lower (s.s31 SIERA and 3.76 xFIP). On the plus side De La Rosa does get a lot of strikeouts (23.7%) and on the minus side he gives up HRs (1.62/9 IP). When we look at the bullpens both are very good and it's very close. The only real difference is that the Cards have slightly better advanced metrics and slightly better BAA and BABIP. Offensively both teams are loaded. ARIZ is top 10 in BA, OBP and SLG, but STL is top 3. ARIZ averages almost 5 runs per game but STL averages over 6. There's a couple other factors that Vegas Butcher mentions in his post on this game " Cardinals are excellent offensively against the ‘slider’, De La Rosa’s best offering, and I think we’ll see him give up some hits here. Throw in his 1.3 HR/9 rate and inability to pitch well to lefties (STL should have at least 3 in the lineup tonight). Ford me, what it all comes down to is that I see a lot of small edges for STL and I trust Wacha a hell of a lot more than I trust De La Rosa so PICK - STL ML (-121)
MIA @ LAD: This won't be a long write up because there's not much data especially on Maeda. We'll start with Maeda. Kenta Maida has been outstanding. He started 4 games, pitched 25.1 innings and has allowed 17 hits and only 1 earned run. He's fanned 23 and walked only 5. His WHIP is 0.87 and his ERA is 0.36. His advanced metrics (3,31 SIERA and 3.33 xFIP) are very good but nowhere near what his ERA and WHIp are. This tells me that as well as he's pitched he's due for some regression.
Jose Fernandez has been good, but not as good as Maeda. His WHIP is 1.28 and his ERA is a whopping 3.37. However, his advanced metrics (3.15 SIERA and 2.89 xFIP) are a little better than Maeda's. Further, with the exception of the high ERA, Fernandez's numbers are consistent with how he produced last year, even with the injuries.
The bullpens are both good and very close but the one thing that stand out is that the MIA pen's strand rate (81.9%) is much better than the Dodger (66.1%)
Both offenses are solid. MIA has the better BA and OBP, while LA has the better SLG and scores more. This is not what I consider a strong pick , but it is a pick as opposed to a lean. I'll trust my numbers and they're saying Maeda's a little overrated and Fenandez may be a little underrated. The other facotr that could decide this game is Stanton. He's hot now and just could carry the Marlins to the W.
PICK - MIA ML (+112)