913 CUBS (Hendricks) at 914 DIAMONDBACKS (Greinke)
Take: DIAMONDBACKS -110
Zack Greinke has a less than memorable debut with the Diamondbacks on Monday. He was not sharp at all against the Rockies. Greinke lasted only four innings and got shelled.
That sets up a play on Greinke tonight. First of all, he won’t be pitching with the flu as was the case on Monday. But more importantly, I’m not sure there’s anyone I prefer to Greinke when coming off a bad start.
Last season, Greinke was simply lights out the entire season. For most pitchers I chart off a bad start, I usually will use four, maybe even five runs allowed as the starting point. In Greinke’s case, I lowered that bar to three runs, which really isn’t all that bad. But using three runs allowed as the parameter, here’s what Greinke did in his next start. One earned run surrendered in 42.1 innings. That’s totally absurd and unbelievable. But it’s also real.
Kyle Hendricks is a solid enough guy but he will likely have to be brilliant to beat Greinke tonight. The Diamondbacks have a little positive momentum off the Friday night comeback win and now they get to throw their ace at the Cubs. I definitely like the situation for Arizona here, and thanks to the fact they’re playing the Cubs, the game is priced nice and cheap. Getting Greinke in a big time go with spot and spotting almost no juice is a take for me, and I’m on the Diamondbacks in this one.
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