We're not changing a whole lot from what's worked well in the past (+77.45 last season) since we've had nothing but solid MLB seasons at Pregame since 2009. We will start slowly as we do in most sports, waiting to see the clubhouse effect of the "new" teams - how pitchers with new teams react to new catchers and new venues - and whose bullpen is for real and who's is not. For example we all know the D-Backs have been tearing up the Spring - so first of all we're going to pay for that early on and it might not be worth it - or, conversely we'll get great value going the other way on the +1.5 RL.
New managers, new expectations - and new players! It's tough, and given that the season is so long (which has been a good thing for us) it's CONSTANTLY changing and our job is to stay slightly ahead of that curve every week of the year.
For those that enjoyed last season, this years' MLB Package is here. For those of you considering joining this season, please don't hesitate to ask question - just no ridiculous ones, like what was our record on 2* underdogs when the temperature was less than 70% - but before the All-Star break. I do not know. I do know we made (by my count) 73* Triple Dime plays last season and cashed 57% of them.
As we do in every sport we try to minimize the risk and maximize the reward - meaning we won't be playing -170 Triple Dimes - but there are occasions when we will play something like that small. We'll play more first-five innings in the early stages since we don't know bullpens - and we'll probably play 35-40% totals, something we've cashed 59% of over the last several years (in all sports combined - I do not know what the % is for just MLB). It's kind of wild to think that when this package is done paying for itself, the NFL will be in about week five and CFB polls will start to take shape.That's all I got.
Here's an example (and of course it was a +130 winner - do you think I'd do anything different!) or our work as well as what we try to do most days - which is give out more information on other games.
954 PIT (+130) Greek vs 953 LOS
Results: W, $390
Analysis: If you want to give me the Pirates at this price, at home, against ANYONE - I will take it. Indeed, Kershaw has had a great run - but if you look at who he's shutout (the Mets twice, Philadelphia, Washington, the Angels who never see him, and before that he gave up a run to the Fish) then it becomes a LITTLE more something I can bet against. Much like Grienke, whose streak ended abruptly against the Mets, of all teams, Kershaw's has to end sometime. It's not like Gerritt Cole sucks, and the Pirates are IMO the better team (offensive potential and at home). If this game stays close and the Pirates get Kerhsaw out by perhaps the 8th - the Dodgers bullpen has been f'n horrible. I'll take my chances with Cole, who's WHIP is 1.10 at home and Pittsburgh is 8-2 in his home starts. I don't like the Dodgers' travel schedule, either. They were on the East Coast just a week ago against the Mets, Braves, and Nats - then home for four games against two AL teams - now right back to the East Coast. The Pirates are 36-18 at home, the Dodgers are under .500 on the road. So, IMO, this is ALL on Kershaw and I get that - but you're paying a dear premium after the shutouts, or in this case, getting a ton of value with Cole and the 5th best ERA in baseball.
Some of this is redundant to what I put out in the forums - however - aqui:
I really like the Rockies in that spot. Washington hasn't been hitting and DeLaRosa can be very good, especially away from Coors. Clearly Colorado is part of the degenerate parlay.
It's too easy to take Jose Fernandez and Teheran is actually very good at home. I'd have to take the Braves here, and Teheran is in fact one of the better "over" pitchers in baseball this season - great value because of a big field and a weak offense.
I don't grasp San Diego being -160 to anyone. Anyone.
There's some early/overnight movement towards the Red Sox, which is unexplainable to me at this point. But, it either for a very good reason or a setup for later. There are more predictable games, and clearly Norris' stock is very high, maybe too high if we have the stones for Joe Kelly.
Tough call in the Yankees game. Eovaldi good at home, Dickey has been solid lately. Because of that I actually think one or both regresses here and like the over a bit, but it could come to 8.5. Right now, I lean Toronto just because Dickey is more likely to last longer provided he doesn't get shelled early.
I can't take Cleveland who cannot score and now is without Kipnis. Pelfrey has been sharp. May well fire on the Twins, or nothing. I do like the under there as well.
Danks has been at times unbearable, but in quite a few at bats he's owned the Royals which would preclude me from taking Kansas City, even at a better price. We know that if the White Sox are going to score it's against a RHP - so I could correlate the White Sox RL with the over, actually.
Since the Angels are hitting about .169 over the last week - Baltimore.
No clue in the Astros game. I can make a case for either side.
I like the under (F5) in the Mets game. DeGrom and Odorizzi can pitch and there is no familiarity there. If I played a side it'd be the Rays +.5 F5 because I cannot involve their bullpen right now.