WestcoastTycoon said:
What do you mean by sprinkle Lloyd?
I was giving my standard answer since this question is asked over and over again, yet no one actually wants to do the correct thing. However, since I believe there is a small chance you will actually listen, I will give a real answer.
You never hedge unless the hedge bet is a bet you would have made anyway
Currently, your futures ticket is very much +EV. When you combine a +EV ticket with a -EV ticket it decreases your equity or profit in the long run
The next thing you're going to say is "This isn't the long run, this is one time". You cannot think of it like that, because this situation will come up again, and you'll again make the wrong decision because you'll have the wrong mindset.
If you believe that whatever price you can get on the Mets has value, or the price you get beats the no-vig market price, feel free to hedge upto the amount where it would be an even payoff no matter who wins
But if you are just hedging to "lock in a profit", it's the wrong decision, and that is not a matter of opinion, it is a fact.
Now In ten minutes someone will respond and say you never turn down free money.