While the National League playoff picture had been crystal clear for some time, over in the American League, the race went down to the final day. Sunday saw Texas clinch the AL West with a win while division rival Houston was able to “back into” the Wild Card despite a loss. Fortunately for the Astros, their fellow Wild Card entrant (the Yankees) also did not end the regular season very strong. The reigning AL pennant winner (Kansas City) has the home field advantage (throughout the playoffs) after being the Wild Card last year. But the favorite here to make the World Series is Toronto, who led all of MLB in run differential.
Here are the odds to win the American League (as of Monday night):
Blue Jays +145
Royals +225
Rangers +550
Yankees +700
Astros +800
Here is a breakdown of all five American League playoff teams:
Houston Astros: 86-76 (-3.38 units) | +111 run differential | 73-80-9 OU
What you need to know: I was surprised to find that the Astros failed to turn a profit for bettors, given that they are just one year removed from a 70-win season and three consecutive 100+ losses prior to that. But as mentioned above, this club did not close the regular season strong. Their 13-17 record since September 1st was 7th worst in MLB and despite having Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel, the staff ERA was a MLB-worst 5.63 during that time. Keuchel, who was excellent in two regular season starts vs. the Yankees, gives his team the starting pitching edge for the Wild Card Game. But beyond that, the pressure is on the rest of the rotation. When neither Keuchel nor Colin McHugh was on the hill, the Astros were -21.0 units! Scott Kazmir and Lance McCullers were the two biggest money burners. The Houston lineup had the rare distinction of ranking 2nd (all of MLB) in both home runs and strikeouts, reflecting a rather “feast or famine approach” at the plate. That lineup should be getting Carlos Gomez (.255 BA, .314 OBP, .409 SLG, .724 OPS) back Tuesday.
The Astros’ one true “wart” is their 33-48 road record. That isn’t just the worst road record among playoff teams, it was the worst road record in the entire American League! They did have 36 wins by four or more runs (only Toronto had more among playoff teams), which is reflective of having the AL’s 2nd best run differential overall. Very few teams went Under in 80 or more games this season, but Houston was one of them. As a favorite, they were just 57-50 (-11.3 units), but 29-26 as underdogs. Versus righties, they were 56-45 as opposed to 30-31 vs. lefties. While they were 4-3 against the Yankees, Royals and Blue Jays in the regular season, they better hope they don’t run into Texas because they were just 6-13 against them.
Kansas City Royals: 95-67 (+18.85 units) | +83 run differential | 73-75-14 OU
What you need to know: Regression was expected here, but that simply did not happen as the Royals easily exceeded their projected win total and finished with six more wins compared to 2014. The dichotomy here is interesting as last year this club was an upstart Wild Card that swept its way to the World Series, never trailing after a single inning in either the LDS or LCS! Now, Ned Yost’s team finds itself in the unfamiliar position of having the top seed and they will face the Wild Card (Yankees or Astros) in the LDS. Despite not having a top of the line starter (Johnny Cueto has struggled), the Royals clearly have a winning postseason formula with a lineup that routinely makes contact and an outstanding bullpen. However, be aware that the bullpen is not nearly as dominant as last year, due to Greg Holland’s end of year regression. The offense though had 17 more hits than Toronto’s much hyped lineup.
The Royals were the fifth most profitable team to bet on during the regular season. There were actually few situations where they weren’t profitable. A 44-37 road record is solid. They were 64-40 vs. right-handed starters, but just 31-27 vs. lefties. They were 63-40 as favorites and 32-27 as underdogs. Unfortunately, however, they had a losing record against each of the other four American League playoff teams: vs. HOU (2-4), NYY (2-4), TEX (3-4) and TOR (3-4).
New York Yankees: 87-75 (-3.55 units) | +66 Run Differential | 77-81-4 OU
What you need to know: Like their Wild Card opponents (Houston), the Yankees did not finish the regular season particularly strong and it cost them profitability. The team wearing pinstripes is under .500 since September 1st & enters the playoffs in the midst of a 1-6 stretch where the offense averaged just 3.3 runs per game. But unlike the Astros, the playoffs were somewhat of an inevitability for the Yankees and I wonder if that contributed to their poor final week. That same struggling offense also ranked 2nd in all of MLB in runs scored during the regular season. The bullpen, which also limped to the finish, was much better overall. In fact, it ranked second (behind only St. Louis) in save percentage. The starting rotation loses CC Sabathia (rehab) for the postseason, but he was no longer a major player. Interestingly, Nathan Eovaldi was the rotation’s most profitable starter (+8.3 units) despite a 4.20 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
Unlike the previous two seasons, the Yanks actually outscored their opponents this year. Looking into the respective dugouts, I certainly give Joe Girardi an edge over all other remaining skippers in the American League. He is 21-17 all-time in the postseason with one World Series win (2009). Girardi’s club may have the lowest “ceiling” among playoff entrants and lack the sizzle of past editions, but they are a better club now compared to the last couple years of the Derek Jeter era. They were 45-36 at home and 42-39 on the road, 60-52 vs. righties and 27-23 vs. lefties and 64-45 as favorites and 23-30 as underdogs. They were 4-2 vs. KC, but 3-4 vs. Houston, 2-5 vs. Texas and a woeful 6-13 vs. Toronto.
Texas Rangers: 88-74 (+29.92 units) | +18 Run Differential | 72-80-10 OU
What you need to know: Few, if any, would have predicted the Rangers in the playoffs at the start of the season. As a result, it shouldn’t be too surprising to find out that they turned the biggest profit in all of baseball at +29.92 units. The trade for Cole Hamels has turned out even better than expected with a 10-0 TSR in the former World Series’ MVP’s last 10 starts and overall the team is 45-25 since July 20th. Their 45-36 road record was an AL best. However, their run differential is easily the worst among all playoff teams as was their home record of 43-38. The key to that mediocre run differential was the fact that only two other AL teams, Boston and Detroit, allowed more runs. Boston and Detroit both finished in last place in the other divisions. The Rangers became just the fifth team in the last 40 years to overcome a division deficit of at least eight games in the final two months of the season. Interestingly, they were 23-34 against the non-playoff teams from the AL West. Past Hamels, there are major question marks with the rest of the starting rotation.
Texas was an underdog in over two-thirds of its regular season games (112 of 162). Going 58-54 in such contests propelled them to the top of baseball’s profitability list. You’ll note that despite allowing all those runs, the Rangers still went Under in 52.6% of their games. That’s an obvious reflection of high totals that you probably won’t see too often in the playoffs. They were 53-43 vs. righties and 35-31 vs. lefties. A losing record in day games will largely not matter any longer. They had a winning record against every AL playoff team with the exception of Toronto (2-4), who is of course their LDS opponent. (13-6 vs. HOU, 4-3 vs. KC, 5-2 vs. NYY)
Toronto Blue Jays: 93-69 (+10.15 units) | +221 Run Differential | 73-75-14 OU
What you need to know: Look at that run differential! The Blue Jays missed out on a chance at home field advantage with back to back losses to close the regular season. But they are the favorites to win the World Series nonetheless as they had the win expectancy of a 103-win team. Were it not for a (MLB-worst!) 15-28 record in one-run games, the American League path to the World Series would have gone through Canada. No team can even touch the Jays’ 53-16 record in games decided by four or more runs. The offensive numbers here are just ridiculous. Their 5.5 runs per game average was 0.78 more than the second best team (Yankees) and as a result they outscored teams by 1.36 runs per game, which almost makes the run line attractive in certain situations. The offense ranked #1 in OBP, slugging and OPS and had over 100 more total bases than any other team. Bringing in likely Cy Young winner David Price (5-0 in September) means pitching is no longer the concern it once was. Also, don’t discount the return of Marcus Stroman (4-0 TSR in September) either.
One concern I do have with the Jays is a losing road record, even if it was 40-41. They also faced a seemingly very low number of left-handed starters during the regular season (went 20-15 in such games). Teams usually don’t win in October by outslugging opponents, so there will be a lot of pressure on Price and even Stroman to hold up their end of the bargain. As favorites. Toronto is 72-39, but they’re just 21-30 as underdogs.