Not happy with my MLB the last few days so giving out all the plays for free today.
Good Luck!
2015 MLB Record
114 – 108 for +6.15 Units
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#1: Detroit Tigers +120 (1st 5 Innings) – Game 1
#2: Detroit Tigers -110 (1st 5 Innings) – Game 2
Tigers have a horrific BP so no need to keep bullpens in play. The reason for these two picks is that Tigers are featuring 2 lefties on the mound. They’re not very good but neither are Chicago’s starters – Samardzija nor Johnson. White Sox don’t hit lefties at all, ranking 29th out of 30 offensively against them. I believe Detroit has the offensive advantage in both of these games, their starters are either ‘better’ or on the same level as Chicago’s, and defensively Tigers should have a leg up as well (#9 vs #29 for Chicago). No Miggy for game 1 but he should be back for the 2nd one. I like Detroit’s chances of grabbing both in the first 5 innings.
#3: Washington Nationals -140
Against lefties Baltimore ranks 22nd offensively, a bottom-10 lineup. Today they’ll get one of the better lefties on the mound in Gio Gonzalez. Over the last 30-days Gonzalez has an e-ERA of 3.4 with a 28% K-rate, and 13% SwStr%. Basically the numbers indicate to me that hitters have had trouble picking up his ‘stuff’ lately. I expect Baltimore’s offense to struggle here. On the other side, Jimenez has had a 4.5 e-ERA over the last 30-days, with an 18% K-rate and only a 7% SwStr% (league average is 7.5%). This is also a pitcher who has a 4.7 FIP on the road this year with a 1.3 HR/9 rate. Nats rank 3rd offensively over the last month or so. They’re also winning games going 7-1 in the last 8. My model has this one at -154 Washington so there’s some odds-value in their favor as well.
#4: Tampa Bay Rays -120
Going to back my 6th ranked starting pitcher in this one as Archer takes the mound for Rays tonight. Boston ranks 8th against lefties but they are only 17th against right-handers this season and 22nd in ISO. I know Archer is 0-2 against them on the year but he’s been a bit unlucky. In 16.2 innings he’s registered 27 K’s and only 4 BB’s against the Red Sox, numbers that indicate dominance. He has a 1.9 SIERA in his 3 starts against them. For comparison’s sake, the lowest SIERA in the league belongs to Clayton Kershaw, at 2.3. I expect a dominant outing out of him tonight. On the other side we have Rodriguez going for Boston, and he’ll be facing the Rays for the 2nd time in his young career. In that first meeting with them he registered a 5.4 SIERA, issues 4 BB’s, and allowed 3 ER’s in 5 innings. Tampa ranks 3rd offensively against lefties this season so chances are that they’ll have success off him in this one. Throw in a better BP for the visitors and I love Rays’ chances of getting a win tonight.
Good Luck