Coach Fletcher’s Thursday Free Play
Thursday, Sept. 3
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
The Pick Kansas City Royals -1.5 runs +105 William Hill
Tigers 2-10 in Last 12
Only 2 of 10 losses were by 1 run. 8 out of 10 losses were by 2 runs or more. The Royals have won 8 of their last 13 and only 2 of the 8 wins were by one run. The run line seems a strong play here.
The Pitchers
Boyd, Tigers
Matt Boyd has had a tough go this year. He is 1-5 with a 7.12 era. He’s actually performed a little better against the Royals than you would expect. This will be his 3rd start against them and that is often a problem for a pitcher when opponents have seen him twice. But Boyd’s numbers are terrible across the board and a good hitting Royals team should put up some numbers today. Boyd is 7.12 era overall. He’s got a 7.00 era as a starter. He’s at 7.16 on the road and he’s 6.88 his last 3. That doesn’t inspire much confidence. In his last start at Toronto, Boyd was rocked for 5 runs and 7 hits in 6 innings. He walked 4 and 3 of the 7 hits left the yard. He’s given up an incredible 11 home runs in just 36 2/3 innings. Compare that to Volquez, who has given up the same 11 home runs but in 165 1/3 innings. The only positive for Boyd is that he is 1-1 with a 2.92 era against the Royals. He faced them twice in August and gave up 4 earned runs and 16 hits in 12 1/3 innings.
Volquez, Royals
Volquez has not performed well against the Tigers. He’s 1-4 with a 5.34 era. He’s faced them twice this year and yielded 7 earned runs in 13 innings giving up 13 hits. That is disconcerting for sure. Other than the Tigers, Volquez hasn’t been too shabby at all. He’s 12-7 on the year with a nice3.32 era. He’s 7-3 at home with a 2.94 era and posts a 3.72 era in his last 3 starts. He’s only allowed 1 run in 6 plus innings in 2 of his last 3 starts. I’m looking for Volquez to pitch a strong game today. And if he doesn’t, he’s got help. Oddly, Volquez has beaten every AL Central team this year except the Tigers.
The Bullpens
Detroit – 5.48 era on the road – just terrible
Kansas City – 2.31 era at home – just wonderful
With this disparity in bullpens, you would hope for an early exit by Boyd and maybe even Volquez. But Volquez has the chops to get the job done today. Overall the Tiger pitchers give up 5.0 runs per game compared to 3.7 runs allowed by Kansas City.
The Hitters
Detroit KC
• Score 4.3 runs per game Score 4.4 runs per game
• Score 4.3 runs per game road Score 4.7 runs per game home
• Score 4.3 runs per game vs RHP Score 4.0 runs per game vs LHP
• Score 2.6 runs per game last 7 Score 5.4 runs per game last 7
• Score 3.9 runs per game night Score 4.2 runs per game night
• Score 4.7 runs in division Score 4.5 runs per game division
This set of numbers doesn’t support a run line play – but keep in mind that the pitching is a component that strongly favors Kansas City. With a pitcher whose era is consistently in the 7 range and a bullpen that gives up 5.48 runs per game, the Royals should be able to score.
Odds and Ends
There is another factor that works well for KC and the run line. In KC’s 12-1 destruction of the Tigers last night, the Tiger pen was used up a little. Wolf was chased in the 4th inning so Guido Knudson (Don’t you love that name?) and Buck Farmer and Tom Gorzelanny were used. Al Alburquerque hasn’t seen action for a week and a half with a sore leg.
That means they will rely on Boyd to get a little deeper into the game.
Some people are thinking with such a huge lead in the AL Central, the Royals don’t have motivation. Not true. They want the home field advantage for the playoffs and they need to keep their lead over Toronto or New York to secure that home field. They showed little mercy yesterday with a 12-1 victory
The Pick KC Royals Run Line -1.5 runs +105 William Hill
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