Coach Fletcher’s Wednesday MLB Free Pick
Wednesday, September 2
5:15 pm Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals
The Pick St. Louis Cardinals -115 The Greek
Cards Try to Add to Scherzer’s Woes
Max Scherzer was one of MLB’s best pitchers this season until July 2, 2015. From that point forward the Nats have lost 8 of Scherzer’s last 11 starts. It won’t get any easier today facing the St. Louis Cardinals and Michael Wacha.
The Pitchers
Scherzer, Nats Wacha, Cards
• 11-11, 2.88 era 15-4, 2.69
• 7-5, 2.54 road 6-2, 2.43 home
• 0-3, 7.31 era last 3 1-0, 0.95 era last 3
• 1-3, 5.63 era last 7 4-1, 1.40 era last 7
• 5-7, 3.68 era last 15 8-3, 2.97 era last 15
• 6-8, 3.61 era night 9-2, 3.13 era night
• 0-3, 6.43 era August 3-0, 1.13 era August
• 1-4, 5.09 era post All-Star 5-1, 2.16 era post All-Star
• LH hit .236 against LH hit .212 against
• RH hit .181 against RH hit 2.45 against
• Last start – 7 inn, 6 hits, 4 runs Miami Last start – 6 inn, 6 hits, no runs SF
Scherzer has not been himself for some time. At one point he cited his delivery mechanics as the problem. If that was the case he has had plenty of time to fix that. I think there is something else out of order. He had an 8 day break between his last 2 starts that was “to set up the rotation” then he gave up 4 runs in 7 innings to the weak hitting Marlins. But even if the “real” Scherzer comes back, Wacha is more than a match for him.
• Scherzer - 0-2, 3.71 vs Cards Wacha -2-1, 0.79 era vs Nationals
The Bullpens
• Washington – 3.98 road
• Cardinals – 2.11 home
We have another big Cardinal edge in the bullpen. The pitching alone will be difficult for the Nationals to overcome.
The Hitters
Nationals Cardinals
• 4.3 runs per game 4,1 runs per game
• .251 batting average .255 batting average
• 4.4 runs per game road 3.8 runs per game home
• .249 batting average road .262 batting average home
• 4.3 runs per game vs RHP 4.1 runs per game vs RHP
• .251 batting average vs RHP .257 batting average vs RHP
• 5.3 runs per game last 7 6.0 runs per game last 7
• .289 average last 7 .294 average last 7
• 4.3 runs per game night 4.2 runs per game night
• .253 average night .255 average night
• 8.36 hits per game 8.69 hits per game
• 1.05 HR per game 0.84 hits per game
• 8.10 BB per game 7.66 HR per game
• 13.38 total bases per game 13.43 total bases per game
• .400 slugging % .394 slugging avg
• .319 on base % .322 on base %
The Nationals seem to score a touch more than the Cards but the Cards consistently have the better batting average. Whatever advantage the Nationals have here is not enough to offset the pitching match-up.
Odds and Ends
Washington St. Louis
• 66-64 85-46
• Allow 4 runs per game Allow 3 runs per game
• Plus 0.3 run differential per game Plus 1.1 run differential per game
• 35-39 when total 7 or less 43-29 when total is 7 or less
• 7-14 as road dog +100/+125 9-1 as home favorite -100/-125
• 29-38 road 47-19 home
• 15-20 on road w/total 7 or less 27-12 at home when total is 7 or less
• 40-46 night 60-33 night
• 49-49 vs RHP 65-31 vs RHP
• 37-48 vs team w/winning record 51-29 vs team w/winning record
You aren’t likely to see numbers as dominant at these with 2 winning teams. The Cardinals are a solid team in all areas.
Coach’s Conclusion:
The Cardinals are obviously one of the best organizations in baseball. Year after year they produce winning ball clubs despite player changeover. They know what they are doing and the people that make decisions for them are some of the best in baseball. The Nationals are about the exact opposite. Touted every year as a World Series favorite, they find ways to lose games and make decisions like shutting down Strasburg, etc. I like the Cards!
The Pick St. Louis Cardinals -115 Greek