2015 MLB Record
100 – 96 for +3.92 Units
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#1: Cleveland Indians +190
This is a simple ‘odds-value’ play. Salazar and Price are my 26th and 23rd ranked starter respectively so there’s not much difference there. In addition, there are a number of players on Toronto that have never faced Salazar before – Tulowitzki, Donaldson, Martin – so he should have an advantage there. By comparison, this is Price’s 4th time facing the Indians this year. I got this one at -150 Toronto, so there’s a lot of value on the road team.
#2: Washington Nationals +122
The Cardinals are coming off a 10-game West Coast roadtrip and now will face a surging Nationals team that has won 6 of their last 8 games. The Nats are averaging almost 6 runs per game during this stretch and the Cards might not be able to keep up offensively tonight. This team ranks 22nd offensively against lefties and could struggle to score runs in this one once again. I have this one at -115 STL so there’s odd-value on the road team tonight.
#3: Arizona Diamondbacks -110
This one has one factor that is in Arizona’s favor and it’s a substantial one. It’s the fact that Colorado ranks dead-last offensively against left-handers. This team has a wRC+ of 65 against them, meaning that they’re 35% worse than an MLB average team at scoring runs against lefties. With a lefty on the mound for the D-Backs, I’ll take a shot here. My model also has Arizona at -124 in this one.
Good Luck