Coach Fletcher’s Monday Free Play
Monday, August 31
5:15 pm Washington Nationals at St . Louis Cardinals
The Pick St. Louis Cardinals - 142 William Hill
Nationals May Face Last Ditch Effort in St. Louis
The Nationals find themselves 5.5 games behind the New York Mets in the NL East. The Cardinals have a slimmer 4.5 game lead over the Pirates in the NL Central. Obviously this series will have potential drastic repercussions for the loser.
The Pitchers
National, Gonzalez Cards, Lackey
I will admit my bias right here and now. John Lackey is one of my favorite pitchers. I watched him steadfastly when he was with the Angels and there is just something about him that makes me think Bulldog. This guy never gives less than 100%.
- 9-7, 4.11 era 11-8, 2.92 era
- 1.48 whip 1.20 whip
- 4-4, 4.84 era road 8-3, 1.91 era home
- Team 6-7 in his road starts Team is 10-3 in his home starts
- 0-3, 10.31 last 3 starts 2-1, 2.95 era last 3
- 2-3, 4.63 era last 7 3-3, 2.98 era last 7
- 5-5, 3.84 era last 15 7-5, 2.91 era last 15
- 6-6, 3.80 era night 8-8, 3.11 night
- 1-3, 5.68 era August 2-2, 3.51 August
- 3-3, 4.39 era post All-Star 4-3, 2.77 era post All-Star
- LH hit .273 against LH hit .258 against
- RH hit .289 against PH hit .251 against
- Last start – 4.2 innings, 7 hits, 4 runs (Padres) Last start – 7 inn, 7 hits, 1 run at Ariz
Normally this would be a slam dunk for Lackey. He is superior in every possible category. But the baseball and gambling Gods don’t want this to be too easy. So here is the wrench they throw into the pot:
Gio Gonzalez 2-1 vs St. Louis with 1.85 era
1 start 2015 – 4/21/15 6 innings, 8 hits, 0 runs
1 start 2014 4/18/14 7 innings, 4 hits, 1 run
Now that is hardly fair, is it? Admittedly that’s a small sample and the last start was 4 months ago. But it will make you think twice.
John Lackey 1-0 vs Washington with 4.58 era
1 start – 4/22/15 5.7 innings, 8 hits, 5 runs
No previous starts other than 2008 or earlier
Lackey did go through a spell where he was unbettable on the road. His last start which was on the road was excellent. And he is an animal at home.
The Bullpens
Washington 3.78 era on road Cards 2.01 era at home
This is a gigantic edge for the Cards.
The Hitters
Washington Cards
- Score 4.2 runs per game Score 4.0 runs per game
- 4.4 runs per game on road 3.8 runs per game home
- 4.3 runs per game vs RHP 4.0 runs per game vs LHP
- 5.7 runs per game last 7 6.0 runs per game last 7
- 4.2 runs per game grass 4.0 runs per game grass
- 4.3 runs per game night 4.1 runs per game night
It isn’t surprising that the Cardinals offensive numbers, besides the last 7 games, are average at best. The Nats top them in almost every area and the Nats are not an offensive powerhouse themselves. The Cardinal edge will be detailed in the Odds and Ends – and it is bordering on crazy incredible.
Odds and Ends
Washington Cards
- Allow 4 runs per game Allow 3 runs per game
- Run differential plus 0.2 runs per gm Run differential plus 1.0 per game
- 66-63 84-46
- 34-38 when total is 7 or less 41-29 when total is 7 or less
- 1-5 as road dog +125/+150 13-10 as home favorite -125/-150
- 29-37 road 46-19 home
- 15-19 on road when total is 7 or less 26-12 at home when total is 7 or less
- 12-16 in August 18-9 in August
- 40-45 at night 59-33 at night
- 49-48 vs RHP 19-15 vs LHP
- 29-30 vs team w/winning record 37-20 vs team w/winning record
- 8-16 vs team w/winning record 2nd ½ 12-9 vs team w/winning record 2nd half
X Cardinals are 13-3 vs Nationals last 3 seasons
X Cardinals are 2-1 vs Nationals this season
X Cardinals are 6-0 vs Nationals last 3 seasons at home
Coach’s Conclusion:
Take a second run through the Odds and Ends and behold the beauty of this team. And that’s another thing I like about the Cards. They are an impressive and classy team. Year in and year out they field teams that over-perform. 84 wins and August isn’t over? They are nearly bulletproof at home and have an excellent history against the Nats. I consider Washington to be an extreme example of an under-achieving team. And it seems like that is the case every year. I don’t know if it’s the front office, the manager, the clubhouse culture or what – but they are always expected to go to the World Series and it’s not happening.
I don’t care if Gio Gonzalez has spectacular numbers against the Cards. Well, actually I do care. I wish his numbers were horrible. But Lackey is my boy and Busch Stadium belongs to him. I’m taking the Cards.
The Pick St. Louis Cardinals -142 William Hill