Coach Fletcher’s Sunday Free Pick
Sunday, August 30
5:08 pm Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Pick Chicago Cubs -122 Greek
Evidently There is No Stopping Jake Arrieta
Jake Arrieta has been nothing short of spectacular this season. He’s doing his best to keep the Cubs in the playoff hunt and he’s been doing it with pizazz!
The Pitchers
Arrieta, Cubs Wood, Dodgers
- 16-6, 2.22 era 9-8, 3.70 era
- 3-0, 0.96 era last 3 2-1, 3.57 era last 3
- 5-1, 1.39 era last 7 3-2, 3.56 era last 7
- 11-2, 1.66 era last 15 5-6, 4.07 era last 15
- 10-1, 1.94 era away 2-3, 4.99 era home (Atl) ; 1-0, 4.26 era (LAD)
- 9-2, 2.09 era night 5-4, 3.27 era night (Atl) ; 2-1, 4,24 era (LAD)
- 4-1, 1.90 era July 2-1, 4.91 era July (ATL)
- 5-0, 0.54 era August 2-2, 4.34 era August (LAD)
- 6-1, 1.20 era post All-Star 2-2, 4.34 era post All-Star
- .173 LH hit against .255, .148 LH hit against (ATL, LAD)
- .229 RH hit against .297, .291 RH hit against (ATL, LAD)
- Career – 50-38, 3.95 era 23-22, 3.19 era career
- 0-2, 9.00 era vs LAD (2013) 0-0, 6.75 era vs Cubs (2014)
I could add more details here but you get the idea. Arrieta is a leading candidate with Zack Greinke for NL Cy Young Award. Arrieta’s numbers are unearthly. He has had 13 quality starts in a row and a rather impressive 0.54 era in August. About 3 starts ago people started telling me that Arrieta’s streak would have to come to an end. And since then I’ve cashed on him 3 more times. I’ll be back on him today.
The Bullpens
- Cubs – 3.46 era road Dodgers – 3.43 era home
- 70.37 save % 64.81 save %
- 16 blown saves 19 blown saves
I can only hope that Fernando Rodney does not appear for the Cubs in this game!
The Hitters
Cubs Dodgers
- 4.1 runs per game 4.1 runs per game
- 4.4 runs per game road 4.4 runs per game home
- 4.1 runs per game vs LHP 4.2 runs per game vs RHP
- 4.6 runs per game last 7 2.9 runs per game last 7
- 4.1 runs per game grass 4.1 runs per game grass
- 4.4 runs per game night 4.3 runs per game night
As you can see, these teams are evenly matched offensively.
- 8.58 hits per game road 8.39 hits per game home
- 1.03 HR per game road 1.27 HR per game home
- 3.37 BB per game road 3.13 BB per game home
- 9.73 K’s per game road 7.22 K’s per game home
- 13.81 total bases per game road 14.35 total bases per game home
- .244 batting average road .259 batting average home
- .392 slugging % road .446 slugging % home
- .314 on base % road .329 on base % home
The Dodger offensive edge shows in these latter numbers. But Puig and Kendrick are out and that will affect their offense.
Odds and Ends
Cubs Dodgers
- 73-55 72-56
- Allow 3.9 runs per game Allow 3.6 runs per game
- Plus 0.2 run differential per game Plus 0.5 run differential per game
- 30-21 when total is 7 or less 34-32 when total is 7 or less
- 17-8 on road w/ml -100/-125 1-0 as home dog +100/+125
- 9-2 as road favorite -125/-150
- 34-29 road 44-20 home
- 16-7 on road w/total 7 or less 23-14 at home when total is 7 or less
- 18-8 August 14-11 August
- 45-31 night 52-42 night
- 15-13 vs LHP 57-42 vs RHP
- 33-25 vs team w/winning record 25-26 vs team w/winning record
- 8-6 vs team w/winning record 2nd half 12-10 vs team w/winning record 2nd half
- Dodgers 14-6 vs Cubs last 3 seasons
- Dodgers 4-2 vs Cubs this season
- Dodgers 5-3 vs Cubs at LAD last 3 seasons
- Dodgers 2-0 vs Cubs at LAD this season
Coach’s Conclusion:
You can’t go against Arrieta on the road or at home. His numbers are simply too good. Yes, he will eventually lose. Everybody does. But I will continue to ride him. I’m taking the Cubs.
The Pick Chicago Cubs -122 Greek