Coach Fletcher’s Saturday Free Pick
Saturday, August 29
3:10 pm Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
The Pick Kansas City Royals +105 Westgate
Medlen Comes Back Strong After 2nd Tommy John Surgery
Kris Medlen is one of the few pitchers to have two Tommy John surgeries and return to the major leagues. Medlen’s return was a good one and it is just what the Royals were looking for. Even though they hvae a huge lead in the AL Central, the Royal rotation needed improvement. Acquiring Johnny Cueto from the Reds is a huge step. Kris Medlen may be the strong second part of the equation. Medlen’s surgery wiped out his entire 2014 season. His last start was his first since September 27, 2013.
The Pitchers
Medlen, Royals
- Medlen’s first start since September of 2013 was a good one. He surrendered 3 runs in 6 innings, but it was the “other” things that made an impact. Medlen struck out 6 and walked no one. He threw 49 strikes in 69 pitches. His fastball average 91.7 mph which was higher than it was before his last Tommy John. He threw 59% fastballs in the strike zone which is above average. The o’s posted up 6, count ‘em 6, lefties against Medlen and he was able to place his fast place on or near the corners. Opponents went 2-13 with 2 K’s against Medlen’s fastball.
- Medlen used the accuracy of his fastball to get ahead in the counts then used his curveball (23%) and changeup (13%^).
- In his last full season in the bigs, Medlen was 15-12 with a 3.11 era for the Braves. In 2012, making 12 starts and 38 appearances in relief, Medlen was 10-1 with a 1.57 era.
Odorizzi, Rays
- 6-6, 3.02 era
- 3-2, 2.22 era home
- 0-0, 4.50 era last 3
- 1-0, 3.46 era last 7
- 3-4, 3.39 era last 15
- 2-1, 3.86 era July
- 0-0, 3.82 era August
- 1-1, 4.30 era post All-Star
- .225 against by LH
- .234 against by RH
Odorizzi is having an excellent season. He’s not a guy you relish going up against. Career-wise Jake is 17-21 with a 3.70 era. He’s been a little off in his last 3, but a solid performer. Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer, Omar Infante and Salvador Perez have all had success agains Odorizzi.
The Bullpens
- Royals - 2.45 era road Rays – 3.72 era home
The bullpen edge looms big in this game. We don’t expect Medlen to go past 6 and Odorizzi hasn’t gone past 6 but one time in his last 11 starts.
The Hitters
Royals Rays
- 4.4 runs per game 3.7 runs per game
- 4.1 runs per game road 3.7 runs per game home
- 4.7 runs per game vs RHP 3.5 runs per game vs RHP
- 5.3 runs per game last 7 3.6 runs per game last 7
- 4.1 runs per game night 3.9 runs per game night
It would be hard to find more convincing numbers than this in favor of the Royals.
- Plus 82 run differential (5th) Minus 19 run differential (18th MLB)
- 9.31 hits per game away (4th) 7.90 hits per game home (27th MLB)
- 0.87 HR per game road 0.95 HR per game
- 2.05 BB per game road (30th) 2.61 BB per game home
- 6.30 K’s per game road 7.95 K’s per game home
- 14.05 total bases per game rd 12.69 total bases per game home
- .271 batting average (2nd) .248 batting average (24th)
- .261 batting average away .246 batting average per game home
- .394 slugging % road .395 slugging % home
- .310 on base % road .310 on base % home
- .704 on base + Slugging road .705 on base + slugging home
It’s hard not to give a sizeable edge in hitting to the visitin Royals. The runs per game is particularly telling. When you have a subpar offense and your opponent has a strong bullpen, you are generally in real trouble.
Odds and Ends
Royals Rays
- 78-49 57-61
- Allow 3.7 runs per game Allow 3.9 runs per game
- 21-11 when total 7 or less 27-32 when total is 7 or less
- 11-11 when road dog (to +125) 13-11 when home fave (to -125)
- 33-28 road 31-31 home
- 17-8 August 12-11 August
- 53-35 at night 46-41 at night
- 0-0 in dome (5-2 last 3 yr) 32-32 in dome
- 1-3 on artificial turf (9-9 last 3) 36-35 on artificial turf
- 54-27 vs RHP 41-50 vs RHP
- 40-24 vs team w/losing record 27-22 vs team w/winning record
- 16-9 vs team w/losing rec 2nd ½ 9-8 vs team w/winning record 2nd half
- Royals are 14-3 vs Rays last 3 years
- Royals are 4-0 vs Rays this season
- Royals are 5-2 vs Tampa Bay in Tampa Bay last 3 years
Coach’s Conclusiom
The Odds and Ends show some powerful numbers in the Royals’ favor. The overall records aren’t close. The Royals have a better record on the road than the Rays have at home. The Royals win 2 of every 3 starts against RHP. The Rays have a losing record against RHP. 14-3 over the last 3 years is strong medicine. Admittedly it may be crazy to play a pitcher who has had 1 start since Sept. 27, 2013. I won’t deny that. But Medlen’s return was a strong one and the Royals’ pen is one of baseball’s best. I’m going with the Royals here.
The Pick Kansas City +105 Westgate