Here was our early morning release write up
Coach Fletcher's Monday 2* Pick #2
Monday, August 3
10:07 Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick Twins/Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 XXX
Good Pitching on Tap in Toronto
We catch a little break here because 2 pitchers that have had excellent seasons were both rocked in their last start, That inflated the line a little here. I also think that people are still under the impression that the Blue Jays are a monster offensive machine. They certainly went through a streak, but they aren't as good as most people think.
The Pitchers
The key to the game and the under. Price has a history against the Twins, including 3 games this year, that is very strong. Other than Santana's last start, he has been very good and his arm should be plenty fresh.
Price, Toronto
Santana, Twins
? 9-4, 2.65 era 2-1, 3.78 era
? 3.00 era home 0.76 era road
? 3.43 era last 3 2.53 era last 3
? Last start - 6 inn, 5 runs, 7 hits, 2 HR Last start - 5 2/3 inn, 6 earned, 8 hits, 2 HR
? 8-3, 2.33 era vs Twins overall 6-6, 3.66 era overall
? 6-1, 1.97 era last 2 seasons Last pitched vs BJ's in 2013
The pitching in this morning game should hold up well. It appears that Tori Hunter may sit this one out for the Twins. The Twins bullpen is not that good with a road era over 4. The Blue Jays have improved theirs markedly and have an era just above 3. We need Santana to go deep.
The Offenses
We have an excellent offense for the Nlue Jays which hopefully Santana can control. The Twins have a good record but it really isn't supported by good hitting.
? Toronto - 5.3 runs per game Twins - 4.2 runs per game
? Toronto - 5.6 runs per game home Twins - 3.5 runs per game road
? Toronto - 5.2 runs per game vs RHP Twins - 5.1 runs per game vs LHP
? Toronto - 5.9 runs per game last 7 Twins - 4.4 runs per game last 7
? Toronto - 5.5 runs per game day Twins - 4.2 runs per game day
Obviously, the scoring oiutput from these teams makes the 8.5 look like an easy over. But I don't see that happening here. Toronto's team bastting average is .263 and .260 vs RHP. The Twins batting average as a team is just .223 on the road and .251 vs LHP.
Coach's Conclusion:
I think Price will toss a gem here. He has been very positive about his trade to the Blue Jays which is in stark contrast to his feeling last season when moved from Tampa Bay to Detroit. He shown shown mastery over the Twins in both the distant and recent past. Santana has had just 5 major league starts this year and when he is on, he can be tough to hit. I'm looking for a rebound start for Ervin here.
The Pick Twins/Blue Jays UNDER 8.5