CUBS (Lester) @ PIRATES (Liriano)
Take: CUBS +120
We have a potentially dynamite duel on tap tonight as the Cubs open a series at Pittsburgh. It’s Jon Lester and Francisco Liriano in a battle of southpaws. I’m looking to ride Lester here. He’s really hot right now and he’s also one of those guys who seems to rise to the occasion in big games.
Lester is on fire. His recent BB/K ratio is spectacular and when contact gets made, it usually results in a ground ball. There’s nothing wrong with Liriano, either. The Pirates southpaw is putting up very solid numbers. But they’re just a shade below those of Lester.
The Cubs are also arriving in the Steel City with some major momentum. They’re off an impressive road sweep at Milwaukee and underdogs on a winning streak are often very attractive. The Pirates managed to get a split at Cincinnati, but the Bucs didn’t really play all that well in the four-game set and I see the Cubs being a little sharper right now.
Team data shows the Cubs being more productive than the Pirates against lefties, so that’s a positive. The Pirates have the more reliable bullpen stats for the season, but not lately as their relief corps has struggled at times recently.
This is a huge series for both teams. The Pirates have a four-game cushion for the first wild card spot in the NL. Meanwhile, the Bucs would love to make a serious dent in the 5.5 game deficit they have in the NL Central, and that’s with the beat up Cardinals looking a little vulnerable right now. As for the Cubs, they’re currently tied with the defending champion Giants for the second wild card in the NL. So this is a big set and I expect a real playoff atmosphere at what should be a packed PNC tonight.
I make this game a tossup, so grabbing a decent price with the Cubs would appear to represent some decent value. I would think runs will be tough to come by tonight, but I’ll side with the Cubs to sneak past the Pirates in this one.
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