Coach Fletcher's Monday Free Play
Monday, August 3
4:10 pm New York Mets at Miami Marlins
The Pick Mets/ Marlins over 7 -130 The Greek
Colon Running Out of Gas?
Bartolo Colon is defintiely a veteran. But if his last 3 starts are an indication of where he's headed, retirement may come sooner than he would like. But Bartolo is a funny guy, just when you are ready to count him out, he comes through. I still like the OVER 7 here.
The Pitchers
The line for this one opened at 7.5 and was quickly bet down to 7. I'll go the other way here.
Colon, Mets Koehler, Miami
9-10, 4.96 era 8-7, 3.55 era
3-6, 5.57 era road 4-2, 2.45 era home
0-3, 8.59 era last 3 1-2, 3.32 era last 3
0-6, 6.16 era last 7 4-3, 2.40 era last 7
5-9, 5.59 era last 15 6-5, 3.00 last 15
3-10, 5.40 era night 4-4, 2.38 era night
Colon - This year vs Marlins - 20 2/3 innings, 8 runs, 21 hits, 3HR
Koehler - This year vs Mets - 6 2/3 innings, 12 runs, 12 hits, 6 BB, 2 K
While Koehler seems to be sharp against everybody else, the Mets have gotten to him big time this seson.
The Offense
Any time you see a total of 7 you either have 2 great pitchers or 2 crappy hitting teams. These are 2 crappy hitting teams.
Mets Marlins
Score 3.5 rpg, give up 3.6 rpg Score 3,6 rpg, give up 3.9 rpg
2.9 rpg road 3.7 rpg home
3.7 vs RHP 3.4 vs RHP
5.3 rpg last 7 2.1 rpg last 7
3.6 rpg grass 3.6 rpg grass
3.1 rpg night 3.3 rpg night
3.9 rpg vs division 3.9 rpg vs division
These numbers don't suggest a catastophic barrage of runs will be scored, but it does look good to exceeed 7 in my opinion. I like the Mets getting 5.3 in their last 7. It corresponds well with their run for a playoff berth. The numbers within the division are also encouraging.
Odds and Ends
Mets -23-18 to over in division Marlins 21-14 to the over in division
Mets - 26-23 to the over when playing team with losing record
Marlins - 21-17 to the over when playing team with winning record
23 of 44 have gone over in the last 3 years between these teams
6 of 10 have gone over this season between these teams
Total is 4/4 in Colon's starts vs Miami
Total is 4-2 to the over in Koehler's starts
Coach's Conclusion:
I think the Mets will be playing excellent ball. They are right in the thick of it after beating Washington last night. I think they will be tough to beat from here on out - but Colon is the one most likely to get abused buy opponents.
The Play Mets/Marlins OVER 7 -130 The Greek