Friday Plays 7//30/10

Arizona(I. Kennedy) @ NY Mets(M. Pelfrey): NY Mets -135

Since 2003, every time the D’Backs have won 2 in a row at New York, they have followed those 2 wins with a loss. This has happened 5 times. Well, Zona has won their last 2 in New York so the trend play is with the Mets. However, I can’t just go by that short amount of data and I need more concrete information especially since I am not a trend player anyways. Let’s start with Kennedy who comes into this game off 3 pretty good starts in a row ALL AT HOME. For the year, he has a 4.10 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. In his first start against the Mets a few weeks back, he beat Pelfrey and the Mets 13-2 but went just 5 innings. In fact, Kennedy hasn’t gone more than 6.2 innings in any of his past 7 starts. That means the famed and atrocious DBack bullpen(6.59 ERA) figures to get work in this one and that is a major plus for the Mets. Pelfrey has gone south since June 13^th after getting off to a great start in 2010. Pelfrey was rocked by these same DBacks a few weeks back and carries a 6.75 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP against them in his career. Despite his troubles, Pelfrey has pitched well at home this year posting a 3.19 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Pelfrey is backed by a much better bullpen who for the year has a 3.49 ERA. Let’s look at sabermetrics. Kennedy has been very fortunate so far this year evidenced by his .268 BABIP. And his 4.10 season ERA is around a half run better than his 4.60FIP which means a trend downward is well on its way. In contrast, Pelfrey has been quite unlucky with a .324 BABIP. His FIP is well in line with his season ERA. So, why the Mets here? Quite simply, the Mets are a better team than the DBacks. Plus, the DBacks have been playing terrible baseball and have dropped 8 in a row. The Mets, after a very bad road trip, returned home and took 2 of 3 from a very good St. Louis team which should give them a bit of confidence back. For all that matters, I think Pelfrey will pitch right with Kennedy in this game and eventually the bullpens will get involved which is a huge advantage to the Mets and if the Mets are to have any chance in getting in this NL East race, they have got to win games against teams like the DBacks. The Mets are an entirely different team at home than they are on the road where they won 30 of 46. Take NY Mets -135

Chicago Cubs(R. Dempster) @ Colorado(J. Francis): Colorado -120

The Rockies have won 4 of the past 5 between these two teams at Coors Field. The Rockies finally woke up yesterday and avoided a sweep at the hands of the lowly Pirates. I really believe this Rockies team is a team of streaks. They can lose 10 in a row or they can win 10 in a row. Getting the Cubs at home is a perfect scenario to start a winning streak. Francis gets the call for the Rockies and has been dynamite over his last 3 starts plus sabermetrics reveal even more reason to back the Rockies here. Francis BABIP is .318 and his FIP of 3.4 is 1.2 runs better than his season ERA of 4.56. If his last 3 starts are any indication, corrections for the better are now taking place for Francis. The thing that really bothers me about Dempster here is his WHIP over his past 3 starts which stands at a towering 1.82. Plus his FIP of 4.24 is a half run worse than his 3.71 season ERA. Colorado also has the better bullpen and the better bats. Take Colorado -120

LA Dodgers(C. Monasterios) @ San Francisco(T. Lincecum): San Francisco -1.5(+120)

The Dodgers just haven’t been hitting at all and I highly doubt they all of the sudden wake up against a pitcher like Lincecum. Sabermetrics tell it all here. Lincecum has a .316 BABIP and his FIP of 3.08 is well in tune with his 3.12 season ERA. Monasterios is a sabermetric nightmare. He has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball with a .259 BABIP and get this: His FIP of 5.41 is 2.1 runs worse than his 3.30 ERA. Plus the Giants have the better bullpen. Offensively, the Giants are hitting at a .285 clip and slugging it at .423 over their past 14 days while the offensively challenged Dodgers are batting just .211 and slugging it at .306 over the same period. Let’s lay the 1.5 runs to get Lincecum at a plus number here. Take San Francisco -1.5(+120)

Cleveland(J. Masterson) @ Toronto(S. Marcum): Cleveland +165

I think you all know how I feel about Masterson and his totally out of whack sabermetrics. And since he has had some success against the Jays in the past, I will lay down on the Tribe again today. Value Value Value. Take Cleveland +165

Good luck today VWG!!

BOL & GET MONEY!!!!LOVE THE PLAYS

Thanks guys...great to be back in the saddle after being away a few days. Lets make some cash tonight! Good luck to ya guys!

BOL VWG.

GL Tonight.

BOL VWG.

love your plays man good luck