Coach Fletcher’s Tuesday Free Pick
4:05 pm Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees
Tuesday, July 7
The Pick Oakland -109 Pinnacle
Gray Tries to Regain Stroke Versus Yankees
Sonny Gray has been an outstanding pitcher in all 3 of his seasons in the MLB. Career-wise he is 28-16 with a 2.74 era and a 1.12 whip. This year he has been even better at 9-3 with a 2.09 era and a 0.99 whip. But some people are wondering if something is amiss since Gray has given up 8 earned runs on 15 hits in his last 2 starts over 12 innings. He hasn’t started since June 25. Gray had a severe bout of gastroenteritis and was hospitalized from Monday to Wednesday before rejoining the team on Thursday.
Oakland, Gray Dominate the Pitching Match Up
Oakland New York
Gray 9-3, 2.09 era, 0.99 whip Eovaldi 8-2, 4.52 era, 1.54 whip
Gray 1.88 era on road, 1.134 whip Eovaldi 3.76 era at home, 1.353 whip
Gray 3.66 era last 3 starts, 1.169 whip Eovaldi 2.08 era last 3, 1.096
Gray 1-1 vs NYY, 3.21 era, 1.000 whip Eovaldi 0-1 vs Oak, 5.60 era, 1.811 whip
2015 vs NYY 8 inn, 2 runs, 4 hits 2015 vs Oak 4 2/3 inn, 3 runs, 11 hits
Gray 12th in MLB fewest hits allowed Eovaldi 86th in MLB fewest hits allowed
Gray 3rd in MLB fewest earned runs allowed Eovaldi 67th in MLB fewest earned runs
Gray 9th in MLB fewest walks plus hits per inn Eovaldi 97th in MLB fewest walks plus hits 9 inn
Gray is 6-1 in 9 road starts Eovaldi’s era is 5.55 in 12 night games
I take 2 things away from these numbers. One, Gray is the far superior pitcher. Two, how can Eovaldi be 8-2 with numbers like these? It might be the potent NYY offense!
Yankees Dominate the Offensive Match Up – Or Do They?
Oakland New York
4.4 runs per game 4.6 runs per game
4.4 runs per game road 5.6 runs per game home
4.7 runs per game vs RHP 4.7 runs per game vs RHP
3.4 runs per game last 7 2.4 runs per game last 7
4.8 runs per game night 4.9 runs per game night
7th in MLB hits per game 11th in MLB hits per game
21st in MLB home runs per game 3rd in MLB home runs per game
12th in MLB total bases per game 3rd in MLB total bases per game
8th in MLB batting average 14th in MLB batting average
15th in MLB slugging percentage 5th in MLB slugging percentage
11th in MLB on base percentage 7th in MLB on base percentage
It is clear that the Yankees have an edge in many offensive categories. But Yankee Stadium is the 2nd best park in MLB for hitters while O Co Coliseum is 1th.
Odds and Ends
Oakland New York
Plus 0.6 run differential Plus 0.2 run differential
38-47 on the year 44-38 on the year
20-21 on road 23-15 at home
32-31 vs RHP 33-26 vs RHP
20-21 vs team with winning record 11-15 vs team with losing record
4-3 last 7 3-4 last 7
12-4 against NYY last 3 seasons 4-12 vs Oakland last 3 seasons
4-2 vs NYY at Yankee Stadium last 3 years 2-4 vs Oakland at Yankee Stadium last 3 yrs
3-1 vs Yankees this year 1-3 vs Oakland this year
Coach’s Conclusion:
The overnight line for this game had Oakland at about -115. I’ll be interested in seeing how this moves if it moves at all. The overwhelming popularity of the NYY usually moves the line in their favor. The fact that Oakland is a small market team makes this even more likely. I do like Oakland in this game. There are enough positives for Gray and negatives for Eovaldi to tilt this game in the A’s favor.
The Pick Oakland –109 Pinnacle
Thanks and Good Luck
Coach Fletcher