Hammered our GOY with ease on the Astros but personally gave (with some help from errors and walks) most of it back. Hit the free play on the Reds, so those are now on a 23-5 run. Won Monday - but annoyed at some of my mistakes. Tuesday free play posted when we have more clarity.
I do know that Tom has discounted our 7 and 30 day packages this week, and 30 days gets you pretty close to football season. Alternatively, I have known Tom to create special packages for the remainder of 2015 - in which case we can do this work for you every day. It's a great financial alternative to trying to find the biggest pick every day - although that didn't suck Monday.
904 PIT / 903 SDPOVER 7 Greek |
|
Analysis: I guess shame on me for not getting 6.5 - but at 7 (should it land on 7) it's a push and not a loss so we'll bet it now. I do see the money moving the line towards the Padres, and it may be right. However, I made that mistake last night (taking San Diego) and watched them totally give away a game to the Pirates with walks, errors, and horrid base running. With that in mind - even if the Padres are winners, I am not going there. I said past week when we backed Ross against the Cardinals that we were fortunate to get away with his lack of control (five walks) and that we'd fade him next time out. Well, given that line move I can't go to the Pirates yet, but they've got to assume the Padres will score off of Liriano, and I will assume that Ross doesn't shutout the Pirates. Maurer (their closer last night) look awful - and obviously pitched last night, which cuts down their pen somewhat, and if he does pitch, that's B2B nights. I know Marte is probably out but he was all of 1-8 off of Ross to begin with. We do like San Diego much better against LHP - so without going into extreme detail here (it's boring) I have both teams getting to 3 which makes it a push as worst. We've got Jerry Meal behind the plate - and he's a great over umpire.
|
Padres-Pirates: We were fortunate to have backed Ross against the Cardinals last week, but watching that game I knew I'd fade Ross the next time out. He's walk 5 in each of his last two starts and really had very little against St. Louis. The Cardinals more or less beat themselves. We do like San Diego better against LHP - but Liriano has been all business. With that in mind at 6.5 I do like the over.Red-Nats: Indeed I know how well Max is pitching and it'd be real easy to just lay -150, but how often will you get Cueto at that price, and given that it likely to be a low scoring affair, the value to me clearly lie in the Red RL.
Braves-Brewers: Banuelo look great in his first start against Washington, and because he was dehydrated he left early, so the pitch count isn't much at all. That gives Brewers scouts less to look at - and Garza has been getting hit hard. The Braves hit him hard in Atlanta this season - or I'd be all over Atlanta and still may well be. They're a much better bet against a RHP.
Mets-Giants: Personally I don't have enough respect for Cain to back the Giants. Even before his DL stint going back to last year he had limited control and just walked too many. With that in mind I will consider the Mets or the Mets RL here, and maybe the over if we have a favorable umpire and weather pattern, especially given that the Giants bullpen has self destructed.
A's-Yankees: A lot of respect for Gray being a favorite in Yankee Stadium. I guess that's tough for me to consider given that Oakland's offense can at times be non-existent. Eovaldi has pitched three solid games, against good teams, too. However, his ability to pitch deep is a huge issue, so I may well consider something F5 here. Given the extra time off Gray had, there may be something lacking or perhaps just timing being off.
Astros-Indians: I do know how good Kluber is and I do know that Cleveland is much better against RHP. Still, it's tough to lay -179 against a team (the Astros) that can go off on anyone at any time. Clearly this game is very dependent on what happens Monday night.
Blue Jays-White Sox: Well, Feliz Doubront sucks (IMO) but the advantage here may be the Chicago against LHP's might suck worse. Obviously Toronto is a beast against LHP and I have long thought that Quintana is over rated. I'd have to take Toronto pending Monday, and perhaps over.
Rays-Royals: Moore got lit up by the Indians, of all teams. Cleveland struggles against LHP. Now he faces Kansas City who typically also struggles against LHP, and Young has shown at least SOME vulnerability lately. I do think the Rays score some, and it's hard not to think the Royals will at home even against a LHP. Rays pen not something I want money on. Moore should pitch "better" after the long layoff having a game under his belt. Maybe the over.
Orioles-Twins: I have long liked the ability Gibson has and am still pissed at myself for not taking him against the Royals last week. Baltimore's road record isn't something I can warm up to, but Gausman has looked very sharp, and we know that the Twins aren't as solid against RHP. In lieu of the Orioles road record, I might consider the under here. O'd pen has been decent.
Mariners-Tigers: This one has "wait to see what happens Monday" on it, for me. Seattle has come out of their shell a bit but taking them against a lefty can be a challenge. Walker may be a "little" over valued based on what he did to the Angels and Padres, but at the time the Angels weren't hitting and San Diego is San Diego, especially against RHP. Perhaps F5 value to the Tigers since they're without Cabrerra (better price) because I cannot back them for a full game without a bullpen.
Angels-Rockies: Obviously the Angels are hitting everything thrown at them lately, and I would always try to find a way to back the Rockies at home. However, Bettis hasn't pitched much past the 6th inning and had a high pitch count game last week. So, off the table the Rockies go, and they are brutal (3-13) against LHP this season.What I COULD do is perhaps wait til that total gets bet WAY up and take the under. Let's not forget that the Angels have no DH, which not only weakens the offense (obviously) but also COULD preclude Heaney from pitching very deep if he has to be hit for. That might mean, given the lack of familiarity, a F5 under here.